Hmmmm, was the polling results in bluer states more accurate than red states?

[uponit7771]

Hmmmm, was the polling results in bluer states more accurate than red states?

I don't know where I could get this info and if kGOP voter suppression is a real factor (which I think it is) in such HORRIBLE polling inaccuracies that's where it would, on its face, show up; outcomes of races in redder areas being less accurate than polls show?

I'm thinking the polling companies don't weight voter suppression measures accurately and that could show up initially if bluer states (not just areas) end up on election day being closer to long term aggregate polling than red states.

Somethings wrong with our polling in the US and it's not a damn slogan (the polling would've picked up on that and it didn't), It wasn't 4 non-white women in congress (the polling would've picked up on that and it didn't), it wasn't republicans are better liars (same) or even scary words (you get the picture).

Other countries can get nats ass close on the polling and would let people know all of this BEFORE an election. On the other hadn US polling has been getting races HORRIDLY wrong for a long time titled to republicans while the rest of the developed world inches closer to accuracy save a relative few exceptions.

[bullimiami]

1. we got gnats ass close until around 2002 when the gnat and its ass started diverging.

the blame and correcting for it keeps pointing at the polls. blaming the pollsters.

did they suddenly forget how to poll in this one country?

[uponit7771]

2. True, I'm thinking then the polling companies have a responsibility to show us this data or

... speak up knowing somethings wrong with the voting process.

We just get wrong polling that we can't react off of until now, I don't know anyone who's going to take polling seriously any longer for these races.

We have to run like we're 12% behind in all of them

[Ferrets are Cool]

3. Polling is used for one thing. For a few select companies to make money.

Other than adding to "their" economies, it is useless. As my grandmother would say, "as useless as teats on a boar hog".

[Laelth]

5. People use polling to effectively deploy their resources.

We often choose to contribute to campaigns that are close (where we have a chance of winning) rather than supporting races where there’s no chance of winning. We rely on accurate polling to make these key decisions.

The Democratic Party wasted a lot of resources this year due to inaccurate polling. Bloomberg, with all his money, couldn’t flip Florida, for example. That’s what upsets me.

-Laelth

[uponit7771]

12. +1

[pwb]

4. People lie to Poll takers on purpose?

Trump loyalists like lying now.

[triron]

6. Only in certain states and not the rest of the world?? Seems implausible.

[uponit7771]

13. +1, there are no other developed countries putting up with polling being this bad for this long

[triron]

7. I believe much of the 'polling error' occurred in 'swing states' due to the pandemic

and thus: 1)democratic voters using mail-in ballots which never got counted, and
2) not voting due to risk factors of waiting in line for extended times.

[uponit7771]

14. Do you think innacuracies increase if they were red swing states vs blue ones? Do you know where we

... can go to see this data?

The polling companies are done to me unless they can explain better than Nate Silvers There were only a little worse than 16 which was horrible

[Johnny2X2X]

8. Joe was at a huge disadvantage

Last edited Mon Nov 16, 2020, 03:34 PM - Edit history (1)

Joe wasn't able to hold real rallies or have door to door canvasing for him because our party cared about stopping the spread of Covid. That is huge, Biden won without being able to campaign normally.

[uponit7771]

16. Agreed and all of that SHOULD have showed up in the data. I worked at a large search firm front

... end app operations, yes, they can tell what you're going to eat for breakfast on Thursday given a couple of more data points.

That was decades ago, there's no reason why we should be missing out on data this much

[lagomorph777]

19. Did you mean to say "Joe was AT a huge disadvantage?"

[Drunken Irishman]

9. The GOP appears to have had a better swing state turnout game.

I said months ago that Biden being off the campaign trail was problematic. A couple people told me I was wrong and that rallies don't move the needle. I disagreed. I felt rallies created energy and that energy acted as a motivator.

Fortunately, Biden's team realized that he needed to get out more and started holding small events and then drive-in rallies. To be honest, had they not done the drive-in rallies, they may have just lost the swing states.

But Trump's flippant campaign response to the pandemic was to his benefit. He was able to campaign like it was a normal election. Biden took precautions that limited his scope.

And that wasn't just in rallies. Trump's team spent spring and summer going door-to-door registering new voters. Biden's team didn't do that. We saw the data that the GOP was registering new voters in FL & PA at a higher clip than Democrats and that likely played a role too.

Fortunately, Biden is so well known that we didn't need to introduce him to the people like you typically get after a primary. That helped.

Also, it's just not accurate to say polls are right across the world and only wrong here.

Brexit is a great example of this. The polls had stay winning - it didn't.

Polls have been wrong in Italy before:

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-italy-vote-pollsters/red-faces-among-italian-pollsters-who-got-election-wrong-idUKBRE91P0U120130226

Polls also underestimated Boris Johnson in 2019:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/11/uk-election-polls-put-conservative-majority-in-doubt.html

It's not just a US thing. Let's stop pretending in some big conspiracy. Leave that to Trump.

[Turin_C3PO]

10. Agreed, polls

nowadays appear to have more challenges than in the past. A big one is that only 1 in 100 people who are called actually answer the pollster. I believe, correct me if I’m wrong, that in years past the number was close to 3 out of 10. Plus the issue of some Trump voters possibly being embarrassed to admit their support for him. Prior to the election, I thought that idea was bullshit but now it seems plausible.

The good news is that I believe Biden is set to, or already has, beat Reagan’s 1980 record of the popular vote percentage for an incumbent versus a challenger so Biden did do fairly well. Especially considering that we had no ground game to speak of.

[Turin_C3PO]

11. There's nothing nefarious going on, besides voter suppression,

which is very real. Polls just aren’t as accurate anymore for several different reasons. And yes, that includes other countries. Leave the conspiracy theories to the Q-anoners.

[uponit7771]

17. No it doesn't, its a fact that no other developed countries put up with such horrid polling for this

... long where the outcomes mostly tilt towards one party that's not even arguable.

Also

Voter suppression is nefarious on its face and we shouldn't normalize it to any degree.

Here the nefarious voter suppression could be the factor that's not weighted enough to get America accurate polling.

Unless people are now going to say voter suppression doesn't exist !?!

[LAS14]

15. There was a good article in the NYT, Saturday, I think. One of their main...

...conclusions/hypotheses as that a significant segment of the American voting population are hostile enough to all estblishment institutions (include polling with MSM and government) to not answer or to lie.

I would think that if polling was better in blue states that would tend to support this theory.

[uponit7771]

18. I thought that too but then that would happen in other countries also, no its JUST the US were ...

... polling has been this inaccurate for this long tilted towards one political party in outcomes.

Humans in the US don't act 100% different than humans in China and our right isn't bigger liars than the Spanish or the Ethiopians or the Bolivians etc.

Jus like Taiwan and Australia have handled CV19 empirically better than we have they also handle polling better than we have.