As usual the new infection numbers drop somewhat over the weekend

[captain queeg]

But I have no doubt we’ll be seeing at least 200k per day next week. Then in a couple more weeks, flowing thanksgiving they’ll start shooting up even more.

One of the worst preexisting conditions to have is obesity, I believe. When I look at the people who go to trump rallies there seems to be many in this category. I don’t know if there are more repukes in that condition but there does seem to be a lot of those who won’t wear a mask and deny the reality of the pandemic. It’s too bad those people who choose to endanger others can’t be tracked and moved to the bottom of the list when hospitals become overwhelmed.

[Klaralven]

1. That's why the 7-day moving average is the indicator to watch

By taking the average during a sliding 7-day window, the weekend effect is washed out.

[Ms. Toad]

2. Just had a FB conversation with my conservative cousin -

most everyone else has blocked her - but occasionally I can sneak in a point or two that she actually listens to.

She's planning on having about 20 over for Thanksgiving. She HAS to see her children and grandchildren. So stuck on the idea of Thanksgiving that she can't even be creative enough to even consider any other options that would let her see them safely.

And I just learned my sisters-in-law are going out of state together. One is no surprise - the other one is a nurse and knows better.

Way too many people who normally ahve good sense who aren't willing to sacrifice/be creative about Thanksgiving.

We're in deep doo-doo.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

3. I sort of get it that she feels she HAS to see her children and grandchildren.

I'm bothered that apparently none of them are saying, No Mom, No Grandma, we will stay safe at home and phone you or do skype or zoom.

I am like everyone else. I have family I haven't seen in a year or more, and of course I miss them. I actually count myself fortunate that I don't have elderly parents or grandparents or brand new grandchildren that I can't see. I have enormous sympathy for those who have such.

As far back as August I spoke by phone with my sister who lives about 600 miles from me. Most years I visit her for Thanksgiving or Christmas. But in August, we concluded that it probably wouldn't be a good idea for me to visit. And at least three weeks ago now I figured out that I should do Thanksgiving all by myself. I already live alone, which in some ways makes things easy. But I do have friends in my city who have had me over for the holidays in the past, and would happily host me again. Not this year. I got an email from those friends nearly a week ago saying they weren't hosting Thanksgiving, but would be cooking a full dinner and taking it out to various friends, and did I want to be included? How genuinely thoughtful. I responded that I have already purchased a turkey and will be happily doing my very own solo Thanksgiving.

It probably helps me a lot that for ten years I was an airline ticket agent at DCA, National Airport in Washington DC, and almost always worked Thanksgiving. One year, I fixed a version of Thanksgiving dinner for myself and a co-worker, which was cornish game hens and various side dishes that I fixed at home and then brought to the airport. I told my co-workers that Mike and I would take the latest possible lunch, and warmed up our dinner in the break room microwave. I also brought a bottle of wine. One of the best Thanksgivings ever.

My point is that Thanksgiving, or any holiday, is what you make of it. Be creative, as you often would be in "normal" times. Every family has its own specific ways to celebrate. Make this year the same.

And keep in mind that going forward, almost nothing will be the same.

[Ms. Toad]

4. I haven't heard from her kids -

Some of them are far more responsible than she is - so I'm a bit surprised. One of them was going to refuse to go to the funeral of our aunt unless she could be guaranteed that everyone would be wearing a mask.

My push was two-fold: you don't have to give up seeing your kids and grandkids, just see them safely. Bake food, pack it in "to-go" packs, have smal clusters of them come over - distanced and masked, then take the food to go.

The second was scare tactics/don't be selfish. The main thrust of her first response was "you do what you want, I'll do what I want. I'll let you know if they get the flu." So I gave her a summary of the Maine wedding that created hundreds of infections, killed 7 and hospitalized 3 - who were not even at hte wedding - to make the point that this is not a situation where what happens in your family stays in your family.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

5. I hope your pushback is effective.

I am relatively unaffected by this, even though I know at least one person who has died, and another who is a serious long termer.

My sister, who I would otherwise be visiting for the holiday, has three grown children and three grandchildren. I understand that she will be doing a food exchange with everyone, although I don't know the details.

The thing is, we ALL understand this. We ALL have relatives and friends we have not been able to see because of this. But if we all cooperate and stay home as we should, we will mostly be safe and stay healthy. There will be a vaccine in the future, and we will all eventually get it. And then things will be more or less as they used to be. Not completely. Things will not return to what they were in 2019. There will be some kind of a "new normal" that will involve lots of changes most of us can't imagine at this point.

Here's what I've been saying for some time. Imagine it is 1939 and you and I are planning a trip to Europe next year. Hooray! We've been planning for a long time. We've been working extra jobs, saving every possible penny and it's finally going to happen. Yes! But then September rolls around and WWII breaks out. Oh, crap. It's clear we're not going to Europe next year, but we're hopeful that the war won't last very long and we can go in 1941. But the war doesn't end soon. It gets worse, and worse, and finally ends in May, 1945. The soonest we might possibly take that long-postponed trip is 1946, maybe a year or two after. And when we finally get there, the Europe we see is vastly different from the one we might have seen in 1939.

And it's going to be like this with the pandemic. Things will change. Change drastically, and in completely unforeseen ways. A lot like Europe in 1939 compared to Europe in 1946.