Will prosecutors be able to convict Trump?

[ThoughtCriminal]

Without going into the specifics of what charges and which state or federal agencies are involved, I foresee one serious problem. Selecting a jury that does not have at least one Trump Cult member who will ignore all evidence and force a mistrial.

Republican voters have already proven that they are incapable of evaluating objective facts.

[tyrotoxism]

1. Secret service?

I know the SS will prevent a sitting pres from being arrested, but does that protection extend once they're ousted?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. Their job is to protect the president from assassination,

not to protect him from the operations of legitimate law enforcement. If cops showed up with a valid arrest warrant the Secret Service wouldn't stop them.

[GoCubsGo]

21. Actially, protecting the president is only a part of their job.

They are also tasked with investigating criminal activities, primarily those of a financial nature. They may not be able to arrest anyone, but they can certainly provide the evidence to the proper authorities who can carry out arrests, like the FBI. So, yeah. Not only won't they stop them, they may be the ones who provided the evidence for the arrest warrants. And, given that the majority of Trump's crimes tend to be of a financial nature...

https://www.secretservice.gov/

[MineralMan]

3. Will he even be prosecuted? That's the first question.

No President has ever been prosecuted for anything after leaving office. I suspect nobody wants to be the first to do that.

However, by resigning, Trump can avoid all federal prosecution for anything he has done while President. 100%. That's why I think he'll take that safe option. I'm sure he has been told that a self-pardon is very iffy, probably by a couple of SCOTUS justices, speaking in private.

So, your question can't be answered unless he is actually charged and prosecuted. I doubt that will ever occur, I'm sad to say.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

4. While I would be gratified to see video of him waddling along in a size XXL jumpsuit

that matches his skin tones, I'd really be pretty happy never to see or hear from him again. The down side of having him prosecuted and tried would be that he'd be in the news all the time, and I'd prefer that he be promptly tossed into the oubliette of unremembered history, with nothing left to be heard but some occasional faint whining.

[MineralMan]

9. Yes, exactly.

I don't expect him to go to prison. He can avoid that, so he will, I believe.

[Pantagruel]

5. Problem with your Trump resigns

/Pence pardons theory is it's political suicide for Pence. He can't run as the new Gerald Ford with the additional albatross of having led the hapless CV-19 response team. Where's your evidence Pence has a political death wish?

[MineralMan]

8. I suspect Mike Pence knows that he has no future in politics

at this point. He simply doesn't. He has zero charisma. He is a flat character. However, he would go down in history as the 46th President, which might just be enough for him and "Mother."

His time has come and gone, and he has reached the highest political office he can ever achieve, I think. He is a nebbish.

[Pantagruel]

14. You're burying Pence prematurely

Nixon was considered politically dead but consider;
"He unsuccessfully ran for president in 1960, narrowly losing to John F. Kennedy. Nixon then lost a race for governor of California to Pat Brown in 1962. In 1968, he ran for the presidency again and was elected, defeating Hubert Humphrey and George Wallace in a close election."

Politicians with presidential ambitions die hard. If Trump doesn't run in '24, Pence would be the presumptive leader for the GOP nomination. If he does the shady pardon two-step, not so much.

[DonaldsRump]

15. Also, Gerald Ford was not very charismatic

Even after his pardon of Nixon in September 1974, Ford barely lost to Jimmy Carter just 2 years later.

Anything is possible. I wouldn't write off anyone for anything these days, including Pence, as social and MSM and OANN can build up or destroy anyone they want to, with a little help from Russia etc.

Americans were able to put up with Ford and almost elect him in 1976. Things are MUCH worse today, and frankly there is no prosecution of the Trump administration like there was of the Nixon administration through Watergate et al. If there had been a real investigation of Trump's massively shady/criminal dealings, things might be different. This is one of the many reasons Trump still got more than 70 million votes.

[Pantagruel]

23. Interesting development

Link to tweet

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1334654326753521664%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.democraticunderground.com%2F100214657299

[DonaldsRump]

7. In your second paragraph about a Trump resignation

That's only true if Mike Pence pardons Trump, right?

Also, short of an outright resignation, Trump can use the 25th Amendment to temporarily make Pence acting President and then give Pence a brief opportunity to issue a pardon to Trump. Then, Trump can reinstate himself as President to finish out his term and hand out pardons to everyone else.

Regardless, just four years ago, we all would have said these scenarios are ludicrous. Today, they are the likelihood.

[MineralMan]

10. I will bet you $100 that Pence's pardon of Trump

has already been written, postdated, and signed.

Your second scenario simply doesn't make any sense. That will not occur. There simply isn't any time for such shenanigans, really, and there's no upside to that scheme. Trump is done. Pence is done. After January 20, both will be gladly forgotten by almost everyone. Trump can issue his pardons at any time, and will do so, no doubt, before he resigns.

I think the resignation will come a week or two before January 20, shortly after Trump's pardons of his toadies are revealed. For me, that would not be a surprise at all.

For Donald Trump, that is the path that will best protect him, and Trump is all about self-protection.

[DonaldsRump]

12. Section 3 of the 25th Amendment takes no time at all

Whenever the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary, such powers and duties shall be discharged by the Vice President as Acting President.

This has already happened 2-3 times when a President underwent surgery: https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=The%20Twenty%2Dfifth%20Amendment%20has,has%20been%20used%20three%20times. I could see a resurgence of Trump's alleged Covid-19 infection causing this to happen, and Trump lets Pence become Acting President. This all could take no time at all. Trump comes back as President and pardons everyone else.

It makes sense because it still allows Trump to make all other pardon decisions except for himself.

One substantive edit: This allows Trump from being compared to Nixon as the only President who resigned from office. I agree with you that all this will happen in January 2021, after the GA Senate run-offs and before January 20 at 12 noon EST, regardless of the mechanics as to how it's done.

For kicks, assuming the 25th Amendment route, I estimate that Trump will declare Pence Acting President on January 10, and then reinstate himself on January 17 after Pence grants Trump a pardon. He'll issue all other pardons on January 20, a few hours before leaving office.

Susan Collins will, of course, be concerned, but will state she believes that Trump has learned his lesson, so that the pardon is warranted.

Purely speculation (except for Susan Collins)!

[MiniMe]

16. If they do it on January 19, that gets tRump out of having to go to the inaugeration

I don't think tRump has any intention of going.

[N_E_1 for Tennis]

13. As far as your last sentence goes...

I really hope you’re so wrong that they have to find a new spelling for the word.

If there is no punishment for his crimes, we have learned nothing, the last 4 years were a waste of time.
Someone slicker, younger, more charismatic is going to saunter in and have a real go at finishing democracy off.

This will all happen again...but this time they will be smarter more devious and they will win.

People will let them in to do what they will because, big shoulder shrug with hands raising up in despair because “what can you do? They always get away with it.”.

[panader0]

6. If he's not convicted, then crime will be legal.

I've been convicted twice for very small amounts of marijuana. Thankfully, it is now legal in Arizona.
It seems to me, with my limited legal knowledge, that tax evasion/fraud are very evident. No one is
above the law.

[MineralMan]

11. Only in principle is nobody above the law.

In practice, many have been above the law and not prosecuted. I give you George W. Bush as an example.

Ordinary people are subject to the law. Extremely powerful people, especially Presidents, are often above the law, and are never prosecuted.

Is that right and proper? Of course not, but it is the case.

[Fiendish Thingy]

17. In blue states like NY, it shouldn't be too hard to exclude MAGAts, as well as trials in DC. Nt

[ThoughtCriminal]

19. Even in NY Trump got over 40%

Which makes getting 12 jurors without having a single member in the cult rather difficult. I doubt that a judge will allow exclusion purely on the basis of party affiliation and even if they did, it would not survive appeals.

[AmericanCanuck]

22. I think the evidence is going to make any MAGAt on the jury

open their eyes and feel like a sucker.

Documents won't lie and they will know that they were lied to.

[ThoughtCriminal]

18. The question was about getting an impartial jury

The question about whether Trump can pardon himself or will resign and have Pence pardon him is another issue and also not relevant for prosecution on the state level. If the State of New York prosecutes Trump, for example, tax evasion, will they be able to get a unanimous jury to convict him?

[roamer65]

20. At this point, get the Dump spawn.

Ruin the family itself.