With GM and China moving to electric cars, is there now a high probability there will be

[Quixote1818]

a seismic type shift from gas to electric in the next 20 years? It seems like once a few big boys start doing this then suddenly everyone jumps on board. Kind of like when digital cameras came on. I don't think any car companies want to end up being the Kodak of the car industry if they are smart. This is wonderful news for CO2 output then.

I would like to hear peoples take on this?

[Wounded Bear]

1. Hopefully it is the start of the end of using fossil fuels...

Petro products are here for a while, they are needed for plastics and myriad other products, but most of them don't turn into thermo-retaining atmospheric gases.

[RussellCattle]

12. "Hubbert's Peak" is a theory that the more oil you extract from the planet, the less there....

....there is to find and new discoveries will fall behind increased annual usage. It was a hypothesis proved right when it happened around 2002. It was suggested back then that the planet had 2 trillion barrels of crude oil in the earth prior to the industrial age anf that we had extracted one trillion so far and were pumping more every year. The suggestion was made back then that we should embrace other forms of energy to conserve the remaining petroleum because it was so valuable as raw material to make chemicals and even medicines. This motivation to conserve for the future was in addition to any motivation to reduce pollution - leave it in the ground and out of the atmosphere.

[exboyfil]

2. Quickly the supply base will lose its economies of scale

for IC engines and drivetrains. Those economies switch to electric motors and batteries.

Still you have to make the electric and make more of it now. If that comes from coal or even natural gas, you are still generating C02.

I am not sure that we get there without nuclear reactors (thorium to avoid some of the issues with uranium). We have a huge advocate on this board, but I can't remember his time right now.

[StevieM]

6. His name is NNadir.

And we would be wise to listen to the things he is saying.

[hunter]

33. Enough uranium has already been mined to power the U.S.A. for a long, long time.

Existing nuclear power plants only extract about 5% of the potential energy from their enriched uranium fuel.

Several proposed reactor types have much higher neutron efficiencies and could utilize the "waste" fuel from existing nuclear power plants, or the world's huge stockpiles of depleted uranium, or even uranium extracted from hazardous mine tailings.

Terrapower, which is supported by Bill Gates, has some interesting designs.

https://www.terrapower.com/

But I don't think electric cars are going to "save the world."

What we really need to do is rework our cities so they become comfortable and attractive places where car ownership is largely unnecessary.

[RKP5637]

3. I agree, it might be a slow ramp up, but then a seismic type shift. n/t

[Bayard]

4. I think so

I'm wondering if anyone can make one powerful enough for big trucks. Ones that can pull a trailer.

[Rstrstx]

9. Towing really takes a hit on EV range

Many think that heavy things like campers or u-haul type trailers might have their own battery pack in the future. This would let you leave the heavy chunk of battery at home if you don’t need it.

[tinrobot]

26. Technically, it is possible.

You'll see it first in city-based trucks that go from big distribution centers to the stores. They drive a relatively short distance before returning for another load, where they can be recharged.

Long haul trucks are a more difficult problem. Charging times and infrastructure will be an issue.

[Tanuki]

29. Is there any reason solar panels couodn't be installed on the roof of trucks and cars so that they

could keep charging while on the go, at least on sunny days?

[Sgent]

40. Yea

trailers aren't usually wedded to an individual truck. In addition, the power provided would never be near enough to appreciably extend the range of the truck.

[NickB79]

31. Tesla has an electric semi-trailer already built

They're ramping up battery production now for full release next year.

500 mile range hauling 60,000-80,000 lb at 60 mph. If they can do that, they can make an electric F-150.

[Bayard]

36. Interesting

We'd be looking at your basic big farm truck. Price would probably be prohibitive though.

[PirateRo]

5. Musk's intention with tesla

Musk always intended to change the market globally away from te internal combustion engine. China realized 20 years ago they may not fully compete with US manufacturing on the entire supply chain the US developed. They looked at tesla and decided to take the lead on electric cars. The supply chain is not nearly so deep and a little investment goes a long way. Gm is just an embarrassing latecomer to this effort. In fact, they called the development of the Prius a solution looking for a problem back in the 90s.

[cachukis]

7. But it will take energy to build them. Better late than

never. Don't think we can continue on this consumptive pace. Maybe the covid can start a real reawakening. The oceans are expanding. A concept I read about today. Hadn't thought of it that way.

[Control-Z]

14. Can you link me to the article you read today, please?

I'd like to read it.

Thanks, if you can!

[cachukis]

20. https://www.livescience.com/atlantic-ocean-widening-mantle-upwelling.html

https://www.livescience.com/atlantic-ocean-widening-mantle-upwelling.html

[Control-Z]

25. Thank you, cachukis!

I enjoyed the article.

[cachukis]

39. You're welcome.

[OAITW r.2.0]

8. Just installed solar power back-up.

I decided to add a charging station in the garage, as my panels are on the garage roof. I don't have an electric vehicle now, but seems like a smart investment for the future.

[Calculating]

10. This is only going to reduce co2 if the power is green

If the power is generated by fossil fuels then we accomplish very little. Also, the national power grid would need upgrades to accommodate everyone having an ev.

[Sgent]

41. Even if the power is dirty

EV's would cut the amount of CO2 emissions in 1/2. Industrial scale power plants are much more efficient than your standard ICE engine -- even after transmission loss.

[Wellstone ruled]

11. Battery life is the key issue yet to be solved.

Until batteries can withstand the -40 to the 120 degree temp swings and still produce usefulness in maintaining productivity,we will need fossil fuels in the meantime.

Mother Nature is controlling the EV usage in Commercial Commerce. She has relinquished control to a small extent in the passenger Vehicle space,but,that is only for those who are willing to stop every 200 or so miles and wait a half hour or longer to move on to the next 200 miles or so.

Once again,battery life span is the controller. Yes,there are new types of Energy storage cells in the Labs,but,corporate America lives off obsolescence built into their manufacturing systems.

[Rstrstx]

13. Yes! The Europeans and Chinese are already all-in on EVs

So if the US doesn’t want them we’ll be swimming against the current and American vehicles will lose relevancy on the world stage. Fortunately we have the best EV maker right here in the US.

The biggest obstacle to mass EV production is building enough batteries and will require production to be ramped up many orders of magnitude, but once we approach “peak battery” in a few decades a lot them can be made by recycling old ones. Tesla has taken this seriously but the batteries they produce will just be enough to put into Tesla cars and powerwalls (which they expect to grow exponentially over the next decade).

[dweller]

15. I'm sure the electric power companies

will want to get behind thi$
After all my latest power bill contained the little fine printed pages concerning asking for price increase because ...
checks notes ...
Energy efficient homes ...

✌🏻

[Chellee]

17. You've become so efficient that you're not sending us as much money,

so we're going to have to raise prices.

[BComplex]

18. We also need to be looking at hydrogen.

Not just for automobiles, but for other things.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53238512

[dweller]

19. I remember my dad telling about 20 yrs ago

That we would all have a telephone booth sized hydrogen power plant sitting on a slab in our backyards producing electricity for the home someday ... I think he read it in a Popular Science mag

✌🏻

[BComplex]

22. It's more doable now than ever. I don't understand what the

stigma is about it.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

30. If we can make it in our backyards great.

I was weary when the gas stations started pushing the hydrogen fuel cell technology that kept you on the gas station teet.

[NickB79]

32. No we dont

The vast majority of hydrogen comes from cracking natural gas. Natural gas that's derived from fracking, which emits massive amounts of fugitive methane.

Pushing hydrogen is how Big Oil is trying to stay relevant in the 21st century.

[Alex4Martinez]

16. Two things. Cars are bad, even EVs. And, electricity often uses coal and natural gas.

Car culture adherents like to claim that EVs are a cure all. They are not.

Even when powered by electricity from clean renewable sources, they require too much space compared to transit friendly urban planning.

Cars have short life spans, are essentially disposable compared to long-lived transit vehicles, especially rail transit vehicles.

And tires: these wear down and produce tons of microparticles that are now understood to be a terrible form of pollution.

So, let's not think that EVs are a cure all. They are marginally better than their ICU counterparts.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/09/tires-unseen-plastic-polluter/

[tinrobot]

21. The tipping point will happen in this decade.

We're very close to parity with gas cars on pricing. That will happen within 3-5 years.

Charging infrastructure is growing rapidly. You can already drive cross country on the interstates and a lot of other big gaps are being filled. It's already good on the coasts, give it a few more years for the middle of the country.

We still have to figure out charging for those who park on the street, but solutions exist. We just need to implement.

I suspect sometime after 2025, the majority of people will start choosing electric over gas. There will still be some die-hard motorheads and other holdouts. They'll be harder to convince.

[gulliver]

23. I think the green revolution is happening.

Like other posters have said, electricity for EVs needs to come from non-fossil fuel sources or CO2 is still generated. I've read that we may finally have to upgrade our national electrical grid system to get the levels of power needed to charge EVs.

It seems to me that remote work is also a great way to cut CO2. The pandemic has forced us to build up the infrastructure and work habits to make remote work the norm for a lot of jobs. One silver lining.

[Ferrets are Cool]

24. A bit off subject, but are the solar panels installed on the WH in 2002 still there and working?

Or did OrangeAnus have them torn down like he did the Rose Garden?

[Cicada]

27. Cost of electrics is declining, they will be cheaper in a couple years than gas cars

And they will be a lot cheaper pretty soon. The market will kill off gas cars.

[uponit7771]

28. +1

[Poiuyt]

34. Once the infrastructure is in place, EVs will take off.

[Stinky The Clown]

35. Yes, I see a seismic shift, as you put it. And it will be more than cars

Lawn mowers, weed wackers, trucks, atvs, boats, motorcycles, and more will all be switching. Some of these have already started. Electric walk-behind lawn mowers are widely available; riding mowers will follow soon

[Spider Jerusalem]

37. Not just China; UK by 2030, France by 2040, etc.

Most of Europe has set a deadline for "end of gasoline and diesel vehicle production/sale" between 2030 and 2040.

[sarcasmo]

38. GM's new, ultimate battery is a game changer.

https://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/home.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2020/mar/0304-ev.html