Assume for the sake of argument that the Senate had voted to convict and disqualify Trump

[StarfishSaver]

What would the actual result have been?

How would it have played out over the next 2-4 years?

In what ways would that have changed Trump's behavior/activities going forward?

[Turin_C3PO]

1. It would have prevented him from running again.

But otherwise, he’d still be a pain in our ass in every other way. I think the way to deal with him now is through the legal system. Perhaps he will be convicted of a crime related to the insurrection and the Senate could disqualify him via the 14th amendment with a simple majority.

[StarfishSaver]

2. It wouldn't have prevented him from running again

It would have prevented him from serving.

He would still run a full-blown campaign just the same. And he probably would have sued at some point to invalidate the disqualification on the grounds that the Senate lacked jurisdiction - which would have been justiciable, since, while the courts won't hear an appeal of an impeachment, it can and would probably determine whether the Senate had the jurisdiction to disqualify a former president.

[Irish_Dem]

4. I agree, wouldn't have stopped him at all.

But I think he would have served too.
The law doesn't appear to apply to him.
He does what he wants.

[Turin_C3PO]

5. Good points.

We just need to do all we can as citizens to make sure he gets nowhere near the Oval Office again.

[StarfishSaver]

8. Exactly

People seem to think that conviction and disqualification would have save us from him - as if they would magically disempower and disappear him and absolved us of any need to do anything about him. They wouldn't have. We have to work to keep him away - and would have had to work just as hard at that had he been convicted.

[Under The Radar]

3. 1) Disqualification from holding office

2) declining support for his cult which had already been noticeable since the insurrection/ Biden inauguration. Which all would decrease his influence.
3) inability to raise political contributions for himself.
4) no purpose in traveling campaigning and doing daily interviews on the right wing media circuit.
5) with no potential for office, the media demand would wilt and invitations for interviews would end.

But now there is renewed hope from his cult. Trump will use this influence to raise money, and stay in the public eye constantly criticizing every move Biden takes and attacking his enemies.

[StarfishSaver]

6. Why do you think disqualification from holding office would have stopped him from running

He would simply declare the disqualification illegal and run anyway. And he's shown an ability to milk his stupid followers for plenty of money, so that wouldn't have ended.

His circus sideshow would have continued uninterrupted with the only difference being that instead of positioning himself as having fought and beaten the Deep State, he would portray himself as a victim of the Deep State. That works just as well for him.

[FakeNoose]

7. Chump "runs" because he grifts from the campaign donations

That's why he started the first campaign in 2015, and he fully expected to lose the primary. Anyone who donates money to Chump now is a complete fool, if they don't realize that.

[msfiddlestix]

9. It would at least sever his campaign fundraising abilities signifcantly

which is not a small matter, number one.

Number two: it would also prevent him from ever taking office anywhere ever.

Number three: I believe I understand to be true, that all tax payer benefits including secret service protections, legal claims to intelligence briefings even his health care benefits would end. At least that's what I've read a number of times, I have never fact checked those claims though.

Number four: it helps to have him legally prevented from ever holding office, there by (theoretically) tamping down radical extremists from succeeding in their political aims, I think it helps.

(I'm not suggesting this would eradicate the extremists that have been unleashed, but I think it would help mitigated to some extent.)

Finally: It will damage the "brand" name in the political sphere to the extent that Donnie Junior and Ivanka and the rest of the corrupt clan will have the level of baggage that should at least hurt their chances of electoral victories.. at least that's possible.

My thoughts on this is of course all theoretical. perhaps.

[StarfishSaver]

11. My thoughts

I don't think that the inability to hold office would have stopped him from running and it wouldn't stop him from raising money from his stupid base. And I don't think conviction would have damaged his brand any more than it's already been damaged.

He may not be able to raise money through the campaign finance system, but he could still raise money through his PAC and other organizations, as he's already demonstrated. Grifters gonna grift and stupid people gonna give those grifters their money.

It also would not have taken away any of his benefits. Former presidents continue to get Secret Service protections, even if removed from office. And only presidents who have been removed from office through impeachment lose their financial benefits. The conviction would and disqualification would not have affected his post-presidency benefits - he would have been able to keep the income and budget.

[msfiddlestix]

15. On the question of benefits post removal

Remind me when any president has been removed via conviction? I don't think any president has unless I'm misremembering.

It is my understanding that the clauses under the 14th amendment speak to just those benefits mentioned. Is that incorrect?


It will be interesting, but nerve wracking, to watch how things play out for Trump's resurrection. I truly hope and pray it goes down in flames.

[StarfishSaver]

16. The issue of benefits is governed by statute, not the Constitution

The Constitution is silent on this. Former presidents are provided benefits pursuant to statute, specifically 3 U.S.C. § 102

The Former Presidents Act provides that former presidents are entitled to a pension and office and travel budget. It also explicitly excludes presidents who have been removed through impeachment from receiving those benefits. All other former presidents - including those who have been impeached and convicted but not removed from office - are entitled to receive those benefits.

This is an unfortunate loophole in the law. Obviously - and not surprising, because who would have thought - the drafters did not anticipate a president being impeached while in office but convicted after leaving office and therefore not subject to removal. But that's the law. It can be amended to cover any president who is convicted, but the new version would only apply to future presidents since, once someone becomes entitled to the benefits, they cannot be revoked.

As for Secret Service protection, this is covered under a different statute, which provides lifetime protection to all former presidents, regardless how they left office.

[msfiddlestix]

17. Well, that's most unfortunate.

Kind of tells me there's no hope for accountability, there's no hope for justice.

How messed up is that? Considering my grand children's future, and everything I try to teach them, is nullified by such statutes.

And as Representative Raskin kept saying: "That just can't be Right".

My words "Say it ain't so" ...

I think I'll get out my fiddle now..

[StarfishSaver]

18. It is unfortunate, but there's still hope for some accountability

The presidential pension - $400,000 - is really pretty small in light of the lifestyle he lives and the money he owes. It would probably barely cover a month's living expenses or the monthly interest on the massive and growing amount of his debt.

And the other perks - office expenses and travel - aren't a given. The amount authorized by law is a CAP, not a guarantee of what he'll actually get. GSA has to approve the budget and how it's spent. And they likely won't agree to the exorbitant self-dealing he engaged in when he was president and controlled the purse strings.

Just because he wasn't impeached and disqualified from holding office doesn't mean he got away with anything. This man is going to spend the rest of his life looking over his shoulder and fighting in court.

And it also gives me great pleasure to know that for the rest of his life, he will ONLY be embraced by the kinds of people he has always disdained and looked down on and he'll be shunned by the people he's spent his entire life aspiring to be accepted by.

His life is not going to be easy - I think he and his family will eventually regret he ever ran for president.

[servermsh]

10. I don't get all this focus on the final vote when one main benefit was embarrassing Republicans

An impeachment committee exposing evidence (and having Republicans call each other liars) would have been blockbuster TV coverage.

Now we're just moving on. Just like after the Civil War.

[StarfishSaver]

12. And I don't get why you believe that an "impeachment committee" is the only way to expose evidence

or that "blockbuster tv coverage" is now impossible.

We're not moving on, but given your assumption that now that impeachment is over, there's nothing more that anyone can do, it sounds like you are.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. We're all adults here. We all knew the MAGATS would never convict their GOD EMPEROR

The whole point of the exercise was to dirty up Trump and his enablers.

[world wide wally]

14. If the Marmalade Fuck Face runs again, of course he will win Albama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and

a couple other Confederate states, but I would expect the results to be pretty similar to the 2020 election but by bigger margins. There is no need for us to be concerned about him having a snowball's chance of winning a general election.