The only drama left for the repubs is picking a VP nominee

[onenote]

As for picking a presidential candidate, its over. The only thing predictable about this allegedly unpredictable primary season is that the predictable candidate will be the nominee.

I say this fully aware that DU has been (and continues to be) littered with predictions that crashed and burned (remember how Perry couldn't lose, how Newt was unstoppable, how Sarah, Jeb, Christie were all predicted to be the eventual nominee?). Not. Going. To. Happen. Its not even going to be an "all the way to the convention" campaign. The repubs will start closing ranks around Mitt this week and into the future. Those pundits that have clearly expressed their lack of enthusiasm for Mitt will suddenly find that he has, in their eyes, all sorts of virtues.

As for the spin that Romney couldn't get 40 percent in his nearly home state of New Hampshire or that turnout in NH was low? Well, the more relevant number is that Mitt's "I like to fire people" gaffe appears not to have hurt him at all. The consensus poll numbers going into Tuesday were for Mitt to get around 37 percent (some had him a bit higher, some a bit lower). He hit that target easily, with no apparent drop off from his foot in mouth moment. As for turnout? Mitt's vote total this time was 25 percent higher than it was four years ago. When all is said and done, his vote total probably will be around 15 percent higher than what McCain got in winning the primary four years ago. While some are pointing to the fact that turnout was only slightly higher than it was four years ago, keep in mind that four years ago the primary was hotly contested, with McCain topping Romney by around 5 percent (37.7 to 32.2) and the polls had the race closer than that right up until the end. In contrast, Romney has had NH in the bag by a double digit margin since last spring. The fact that turnout was as high as it was reflects the fact that there was competition for second and third place, which may matter to the supporters of a candidate in terms of bragging rights but is of no real import.

Finally, its true that 6 out of ten voters in the NH primary preferred someone other than Mitt. So what? McCain only got 37 percent in 2008 and didn't win 50 percent or more of the votes in any contest until Super Tuesday (and on an aggregate basis was far from the choice of the majority of voters participating on Super Tuesday). Yet the repub nomination didn't go down to the convention in 2008 and its not going to the convention in 2012.

What will be interesting is to see how soon the angling for the VP slot goes public. Sooner than usual is my prediction.

[WI_DEM]

1. Well, true, but neither convention will be very interesting

conventions have increasingly become less interesting over the years. They even pick the VP nominee before the convention rather than at the convention. The last time the Dem's and GOP selected their VP candidates at the convention was in 1976 (for the dems) and 1980 (for the GOP), so the conventions don't even have the drama of who will be VP any longer.

[onenote]

5. Right, although there will be breathless speculation about speaking slots at some point

Sometime before the convention, you can count a raft of stories from the media speculating on how the repubs are going to handle the also rans in terms of face time during the convention. Do they all get speaking slots? Will any of them get prime time? Who gets what? Will any of them go off message and say stuff (a la Buchanan) that will draw attention away from the coronation of Mitt?

My view is that this will be media hype and that the repubs will very carefully orchestrate the convention. The also rans will get their moments, but generally not in prime time. There will be some effort to have a kumbaya moment where the losers (including Newt) show their party unity and their support for the goal of unseating the President.

[SlimJimmy]

2. Some here may not like what you just said, but it's the truth. I've said a number of times

here and at DU2, that this was Romney's nomination to lose. I still believe that. We, as Democrats, should start to focus like a laser on him as the candidate.

[yellowcanine]

3. I disagree. Mitt will likely prevail in the end but the drama is not over.

The reason the "I like to fire people" resonated was because it plays into a larger meme about Mitt - he is a company man who doesn't understand people who actually have to worry about a pink slip (The "I was worried about getting a pink slip" was an even larger gaffe, imo). This issue may not have hurt him in NH (It is debatable, imo) but it will hurt him in places where there is higher unemployment.

As for DU predictions, I think you are swimming in selective memory waters there. I don't remember a lot of predictions like that. People can and do post all kinds of stuff but the general consensus here has been and is that Mitt will be the nominee. The only real question will be how scorched he will be by the time of the nomination. Newt's super pac is already busy making it hot for Mitt in South Carolina with some devastating ads about Mitt the job killer which will play right into the doubts about Mitt "I was afraid of a pink slip" Romney.

As for VP, Mitt has a problem. If he makes the McCain mistake and goes for a RW flame thrower to pander to the tea party crowd, he loses what few true independents and conservative Democrats he might otherwise have. OTOH if he goes for a more moderate pick he loses the tea party crowd. I think at the least he has to get someone who will give him some blue collar credibility and who will appeal to both blue collar and public employee union members. Otherwise he has no hope of capturing a big blue state or two which is a must for him to win. I am not sure that person exists in the Republican Party.

[onenote]

4. I agree that Mitt has a VP issue

As for there being any drama left in the selection of the nominee, I don't see it. But if I'm wrong, I'll at least have the comfort that mine won't be the first wrong prediction on DU. (By the way, it was not my intent to suggest that there were "a lot" of predictions that someone other than Romney would capture the nomination. But its not selective memory either. Before Perry jumped into the race there were a number of posts that predicted he would get the nomination if and when he decided to announce. Similarly, posts saying Sarah or Jeb would jump in have been popping up from time to time for months. There was just another "Jeb gets it at the convention" prediction the other day. And after Newt surged, there was a thread, lauded by several posters, that spelled out exactly why Newt was unstoppable. My point was that I was making my own prediction with full knowledge of the fate of other predictors.

Finally, I really don't think that Mitt's gaffe will significantly hurt him. Its already yesterday's news. Sure, his opponents will try to use it against him in SC, but so long as Santorum, Gingrich, Paul and Perry are in the race splitting the anti-Mitt vote, he's in the catbird seat. Romney has been polling in SC at around 30 percent. Given his lousy showing in SC in 2008 (around 15 percent) and the fact that McCain won SC in 2008 with around 33 percent, if Mitt can maintain his numbers, he will be viewed as having had a very successful result in SC.

[yellowcanine]

7. Obama has enough resources to exploit Romney's weaknesses left over from the primary.

The gaffes themselves aren't important. The perception that Romney is out of touch with people who have to go to work every day and worry about keeping their jobs is what is important. The slings and arrows from Newt et al., while not stopping Romney's march to the nomination, will set the stage for Obama's ad writers. It will be a target rich environment. Romney cannot credibly sell himself as a job creator if he is undermined by a perception that he really doesn't understand working people.

[LonePirate]

6. I am guessing it will be a Southern, evangelical male with Tea Party appeal.

Any number of contenders can fit that bill.