Gravis Marketing Exposed II. The Evisceration of Douglas Kaplan

[grantcart]

Last edited Mon Oct 15, 2012, 02:43 AM - Edit history (2)

Part III: New DU member provides twitter link and starts a whole new exposition.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021541113

Part One Here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021489250 Many thanks to the many co-investigators that supplied many valuable links so I don't have time to individually thank each of you. This went way over the time I budgeted, there was just so much material on Kaplan. This should get some attention. If not there will be a follow up around Wednesday or Thursday.

If someone could screenshot the various websites, especially those at Gravis Marketing and Kaplan. I expect some heavy scrubbing is on the way.

Gravis Marketing Exposed: Stage II the Evisceration of Douglas Kaplan.

This post has 3 parts;

The first is the summary of what is known. Everything in this part is based on fact or published statements, most of them by Douglas Kaplan. Every assertion is made with a footnote in parentheses () and detailed below so that it doesn't distract from the initial reading. Many of these facts were dug up by others and I have tried to credit their contributions.

The second section details the facts and describes each attribution in context.

The third section deals with the problems that have been noted in the actual polling again each statement is backed up with attribution.

The fourth section, if needed will be what happens after these facts have been digested. I hope to get to it by Wednesday or Thursday.

Gravis Marketing makes it to the 'Big Show'.

Part One The Summary of What is Known


This isn't a story about an ambitious(2.1) small time(2.2) con artist/fax spammer(2.3), right wing confidant/Republican booster wannabe (2.4), with limited math skills(3.1), who with a limited educational background(2.5), no direct polling experience(2.6), a limited grasp of the political process (2.7), a startling pedestrian ability to communicate effectively about the political process he claims to be an expert in(2.8), who has become the most dominant polling source from many key swing states (3.2) despite some glaring mathematical deficiencies (3.3) and becomes the highest weighted pollster for Silver (3.3) and most frequently used by RCP (3.4) and also despite the fact that he has no effective business plan and states that he is deriving zero revenues(2.9), has an outrageously adolescent professional portfolio(2.10) and an embarrassing display of testimonials(2.11) with an apparent failed attempt to become a partisan political money launderer(2.12) all the while claiming to be non-partisan (and listed by Nate and RCP as such)(2.5).

No it isn't a story about all of that. Yes all of that is objectively true and will be layed out in a systematic matter but that isn't the big story here. The big story is about the lack of standards in the profession of political polling and how those who have gotten to the top of the polling evaluation mountain got punked bad and exposing the fact that they have no objective hold on the people who are supplying them their raw material.

Imagine for a minute that you are Scott Rasmussen. Now Scott was raised a Republican and like most people that age (including me) revolted at Nixon and became a Democrat. Scott and his father started ESPN (which is now owned by Disney) and when he sold his shares at the age of the age of 28 started amassing a Romney like fortune and is currently estimated to be worth $ 600 million. He didn't major in statistics or political science but graduated from DePauw University and has an MBA from Wake Forrest. Scott works hard to provide the Republicans with a respectable although universally perceived biased polling vehicle where FOX and the Republicans can go to get numbers that support their position as best they can. Now imagine that you are the same Scott Rasmussen and one day you wake up and realize that your position as the go to guy(2.14) for the right has been replaced by Douglas Kaplan. You go on FOX almost nightly and Kaplan has a couple of interviews on an obscure Russian Govt radio program (2.15). So you get curious and you find the personal web page for Kaplan and this is what you are looking at;

http://www.site.dougkaplan.net/Doug_Kaplan.html



Doug Kaplan was Born in Brooklyn, New York, I grew up as the middle child of seven siblings. Early on, I developed a love of project development. By the age of 14, I had read several books . It was at this time that I knew what I wanted to do with my life. Upon graduating from high school, I entered Valencia and Devry University, I quickly found work developing my first project for Discovery Marketing. I learned a lot with the company, as I was responsible for their first national campaign. The most important lesson I learned was the importance of pushing the envelope and not being afraid to take risks. My technique has continued to evolve to the present day.

I am currently a freelance professional, working from my private office in Orlando I enjoy meeting other professionals and following the latest trends. I enjoy attending conferences and symposiums, as well as adding more books to my reading list. Although I am highly sought after, I am always open to new projects. No job is too big or too small. Call me today at 407-242-1870.

Maybe he clicks around and finds out that Douglas Kaplan is the one that is sued by Disney, who now owns his beloved ESPN, for running a fax spamming con (2.3) and that Nate Silver gives this guy more weight than he does you (3.5)

Well if that little mental exercise didn't make you smile then you might either be Scott Rasmussen or possibly Nate Silver.

Nate Silver is one of the most interesting guys that popped out of the 2008 elections. Unassuming and one of the ultimate sports fans he used his BA in Economics from the University of Chicago to quantify one of the loves of his life, baseball and developed Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm a statistically driven model that works to predict future professional success based on a players past statistics (for details go to Wikipedia).

Nate uses the same discipline and posts under a pseudonym and eventually on his own website. Very successful he licenses the site to NYT and becomes the 'Better Housekeeping Seal of Approval' for polls.

In 2008 there are two very exciting primary races each of which generates hundreds of state wide polls which are followed by a historic and equally exciting general election with another cascade of polls. All of which works to Silver's strength. The more polling the more accurate his modeling is going to be.

Now in 2012 the Democrats have no primary and the Republicans have a dreary affair with a dragged out coronation. When the GE gets in full gear you have a media and Silver's modeling system that demands more and more polling data. It is an unquestionable thirst. Silver's model is based on two assumptions;

1) That published polls follow similar methodology even though they may have some measurable biases.

2) The bias of one side of the polls can be fairly balanced out with polls on the other side and with some simple weighting techniques.

This OP will show that when Nate let Gravis into 'The Big Show' he really dropped the ball. More than any other person in the game, Nate is the gatekeeper on who should be consider a minimum professional standard for a professional pollster and at least in regard to Gravis Marketing, a company with no real academic or professional standards, was allowed to slip in and undermine the whole process. Nate simply accepted the pollster based on the initial product being consistent with other product and never looked behind the curtain.

If one campaign or even individuals wanted to influence the national Electoral College models then all they would have to do is to publish acceptable looking polls and then as the race tightens flood the airways with numbers for the ever hungry media and blogosphere and presto states turn from light blue to purple and from purple to red. If you are having difficulty with fund raising (as has been reported about the Romney campaign) then presto the polls show a tighter race and you are not observing the race but helping one side become more competitive.

Part Two: The Evisceration of Douglas Kaplan.

Most of what is here is either the result of Douglas own words or court records reflecting his previous activity.

It shouldn't have been necessary. After the first thread Gravis Marketing should have been laughed off of the internet. While most of the reactions at other sites were the same as DU there were a couple of responses that need responding to:

1) So What If Its A Stock Photo. The start of the previous thread had a stock photo of an experienced looking businessman and was followed by Kaplan's own use of a goofy looking frat boy. The point wasn't that he used a stock photo but that when it came to using his own photo he apparently doesn't possess enough self awareness to realize that it is a very unprofessional presentation for a national pollster.

2) I don't see a smoking gun. the smoking gun would be to match telephone records with the times published or to show time cards, or to let a reporter examine your records and observe a polling cycle. But all of that is really beside the point. Our purpose is not to bring in a verdict but to serve an indictment. It’s not for us to prove that everything Gravis Marketing is putting out is wrong, it’s to show that he should never have been allowed on the main stage. There is more than enough for that limited purpose.

3) Nate doesn't give it much weight as shown below Nate gives it the maximum weight in swing states.

Now for the particulars;

2.1 Gravis Marketing as ambitious.

Before August 9th we can find no polling results for Gravis Marketing.

In the last 66 days they have become the most proficient pollster in swing states, and with the average of polling the most influential in the combined polling results.

Here are examples from RCP polling summaries

Ohio

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html#polls
Before August 16 there were 40 polls completed, none by Gravis Marketing. In the 66 Days since Gravis published there have been 16 pollsters with published results:

Gravis Marketing 5
Rasmussen 3
PPP 3
ARG 2
NBC/Marist 2

Of the last 26 polls all have Obama ahead in Ohio except for 2 from Gravis and one each from ARG and WeAskAmerica, all Republican pollsters.

Florida
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html
Prior to Gravis there were 56 polls. Since Gravis started in 8/9 there have been 29 polls;

Gravis 4
Ras 3
NBC 2

And 15 other pollsters with 20 polls.

Colorado
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html
Before Gravis first poll 8/9 there were 15 polls and after 21

Gravis 3
Ras,ARG, CBS, Denver, PPP, Purple all have 2

But it isn't just by quantity that Gravis Marketing throws big weight around

Go to Nate's 538 for North Carolina. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

Gravis Marketing has a single entry showing Romney 8 points up. Nate gives this poll more weight (maximum 4 bars) than Rasmussen (1 and 3 bars) and High Point University (2 and 1 bar).

then there is

Colorado

where Gravis has Romney winning the AA vote

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Gravis_CO_1006.pdf

Black 40.34 Obama 2.12 Other 57.54 Romney 100.00 total

and he still gets the highest rating. Sorry about that Scott.

2.2 Gravis Marketing as a small small business.

It is listed under numerous profiles as having 2-4 employees.

http://www.manta.com/c/mtd64jf/gravis-marketing-inc

You can see the small little strip office below at Google maps and it houses the following business, oddly enough Gravis Marketing isn't even listed as a tenant.;

Central Florida Environmental?
Integrity Restoration & Remodeling?
Levan's Catering?
Mars Financial Group?
Micro Innovations?
Music Teachers Collective?
Pro-Co Inc?
Pro-Rehab Contracting Inc?
Products Llc JB?
Solutions of America?
Total Water Treatment, inc?


https://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&q=910+Belle+Avenue,+Winter+Springs,+FL&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x88e76dc3d6daca27:0x3ecbc09e49a4a067,910+Belle+Ave,+Winter+Springs,+FL+32708&gl=us&ei=EuF6UNXFM8GMqgGU_ICQAg&sqi=2&ved=0CB4Q8gEwAA

2.3 Douglas Kaplan legal difficulties as a marketing fax scammer.

What did Kaplan do between DeVry and becoming the nation's most influential pollster?

He had a small level con operation as a massive fax spammer. There is a lot of evidence here so I will summarize what we have;

Here is a Rip Off Report (yes I know that RipOff Report is a shake down artist)

http://www.ripoffreport.com/hotel/vacation-showroom/vacation-showroom-doug-kaplan-98j76.htm

Douglas Kaplan is the owner. He's a little weird quiet guy who talks behind everyones back. He doesn't say anything to anyone directly because he isn't a big fan of confrontation. his cell# is 407-463-2157 you can call him directly for a refund. he has money. or e-mail him at [e-mail]

Also they only take check by phone. Doug wasn't able to get a merchant account cause noone trusts him at all--actually come to think of it--the resorts he's selling the vacations for doesnt know he's involved otherwise they wouldnt deal with him--so they use other names....

Here is a legal citation by the FCC

http://transition.fcc.gov/eb/Orders/2001/eb01tc027b.html

With about a dozen business aliases I don't think its too much to call Kaplan a small time con, do you Mr. Silver?

It has come to our attention that your company recently sent
an unsolicited advertisement to a telephone facsimile machine
(see attachment). Pursuant to the Telephone Consumer Protection
Act of 1991 (TCPA) and the Commission's rules, it is unlawful to
use a ``telephone facsimile machine, computer, or other device to
send an unsolicited advertisement to a telephone facsimile
machine.'' 47 U.S.C. § 227(b)(1)(C); 47 C.F.R. § 64.1200(a)(3).

In addition to the violation identified above, it appears
that your company has also violated the provisions of the TCPA
and the Commission's rules that require any person or entity who
sends a message via a telephone facsimile machine to clearly mark
``in a margin at the top or bottom of each transmitted page of
the message or on the first page of the transmission, the date
and time it is sent and an identification of the business, other
entity, or individual sending the message and the telephone
number of the sending machine or of such business, other entity,
or individual.'' 47 U.S.C. § 227(d)(1)(B); 47 C.F.R. §
68.318(d).

That was in 2001. In 2005 he was sued by Disney for using their name in fax marketing scam

http://www.legalmetric.com/cases/copyright/flmd/flmd_604cv00993.html

http://www.sptimes.com/2005/02/14/news_pf/Business/Disney_adds_to_troubl.shtml

According to the suit, filed in the U.S. District Court in Orlando, Wood and several other defendants representing I Marketing Co. of Oviedo allegedly marketed "Disney" vacation packages without Disney's permission. Unsolicited faxes showed images of Disney characters; customers who called the toll-free number allegedly were told they had reached the "Disney Reservation Center" or "Disney Reservations."

And so it goes with Mr. Kaplan’s previous 'marketing' expertise.

2.4 Right Wing Confident and Republican booster

Kaplan was recorded as a part of a Republican meet up site, now washed clean

Ben Sep 18, 2012 9:14:00 PM

http://www.meetup.com/republican-626/members/14406273/

Would you look at this! The jig is up, Doug!

He also has been a donor for Republicans and when Limbaugh started his campaign to try and boost Hillary to keep the primaries going he contributed to Hillary.

Kaplan also lists two media appearances;

One is with the Voice of Russia (more on that later)

And the other is

http://dougkaplan.net/Political_Specialist.html

http://eddeanradio.com/

Ed Dean is a radical right radio show that boasts he is slotted between O'Reilly and Sean Hannity

If you go to his website he lists a bunch of regular contributors, including somebody by the name of "Bamboo Bob" but alas
does not thank Kaplan, even though Kaplan lists it as one of his two media outlets.

http://eddeanradio.com/show-guests/

2.5 limited educational background

With Mr. Kaplans' penchant for self promotion I believe that he would have told us if he had graduated. All we have is that he 'entered' DeVry.

(from above)

I entered Valencia and Devry University,

2.6 No previous polling experience

Prior to August this year there is no evidence of Kaplan being connected to a professional polling firm, and the junk fax spamming is the only marketing we have seen from him.

2.7 Limited Grasp of the Political Process

Here we make our first visit to an actual encounter with Kaplan at the AngryBear blog

http://www.angrybearblog.com/2012/09/gravis-marketing-polls-and-reporting-ii.html

He was able to con Voice of Russia into believing that he is a national pollster and they included him in a talk show

http://english.ruvr.ru/2012/01/20/64250633.html

Doug joins the team of nitwits at 5:00

First of all you hear them talking about a Capitol Correspondent/Gravis Marketing poll. Try to find any January poll under Gravis or Capitol Correspondent.

You can hear his co conspirator prompting him on. It sounds about the same sophistication you can hear at a Star Bucks. No real gravity to what he is saying, "Paul wants input at the convention" etc.

At 25:31 he starts blathering about South Carolina, that is just weird and seems completely unaware of how Republican primaries are run, especially NH, Iowa, and SC. He pulls out of his ass that "South Carolina is the most socially conservative state in the country". Well the very socially conservative Republican Party in Iowa that almost always votes for the guy that is closest to being a minister wins would be astonished to hear that.

All he can come up with is that it is in the 'South' and that it is 'Conservative'. He seems unaware of South Carolina's past importance of a winner take all state in the Republican's front loaded system and the changes to the rules in this year's Republican Primary.

Time and again he apologizes for Republican vulnerabilities like Gingrich's wife and Romney's offshore account.
His insight states that he thinks "Republicans are torn with Romney".


2.8 a startling pedestrian ability to communicate effectively about the political process he claims to be an expert in.

In the Angry Bear Blog

There are just weird statements like

The poll was conducted when Sandra Fluke in town in August. We polled woman and asked them
Numerous questions. So you should look at the questions we asked.

At one point one obvious Republican supporter gives this priceless advice to Kaplan

DOUG, STOP CORRESPONDING WITH THESE IDIOTS. You make yourself look unprofessional by engaging in a comment section, especially when you write with numerous typos. Not sure a legitimate pollster would feel the need to waste his time in a place like this. That's for people like me who want to find out about your poll, and now I think I have my answer.

2.9 Has no effective business plan and states that he is deriving zero revenues

Kaplan at Angry Bear

You are the one talking about me Trust me I'm far from a republican operative or taking marching orders from Rush. I do wish the GOP would hire us because this is allot of abuse for putting out polls on my own dime.

. . .

This will be my last comment, I have gone above and beyond responding.
This is automated polling, just like PPP and the rest. We do live polling as well, however it is cost prohibitive. Push Polling is a completely different thing, which are not part of our polls.

These are self funded, we believe the we have an non-partisan perspective that is not out there

2.10 has an outrageously adolescent professional portfolio

http://dougkaplan.net/Political_Specialist.html

http://www.site.dougkaplan.net/Showcase.html

2.11 Embarrassing display of testimonials

But they do have testimonials, all politically related.

There is "Cindy L" in Oregon and "Chris Young" in Rhode Island, both very satisfied and anonymous.

Mike Hardin is very happy with "Doug and the rest of the folks" at Gravis (pretty impressive for a 2-4 employee company).

Mike is also a political consultant (probably a roommate from college) but if you Google Mike Hardin political consultant all you get is the Gravis referral page, and this letter to the editor in Sacramento:

http://www.sacbee.com/2012/06/01/4532351/state-officials-pay-cut.html

The Democratic legislative leadership makes me sick. How dare they place themselves above the thousands of state employees who suffered through furloughs for almost two years and face them again. Speaker John A. Perez derides the California Citizens Compensation Commission. Of course, this is a blip in terms of the budget mess. But why not suffer together through this recession? The political scientists quoted throughout the article are no better. What are they thinking?

Now there is some very sophisticated political analysis.

Leaving us with a single actual political candidate who endorses Gravis Marketing.

And he is a 'Democrat', Chris Benjamin.

Except it turns out that Benjamin is also a fraud:

http://thesource.typepad.com/thesource/2010/06/questions-being-raised-about-chris-benjamin-financial-mismanagement.html

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2012/06/01/4532351/state-officials-pay-cut.html#storylink=cpy

After it was revealed that Chris Benjamin, a municipal judge and part time political consultant, is having serious personal financial problems, questions are being raised about his ability to manage public funds. Benjamin is most infamous for switching parties to run for the State Senate as a Democrat in 2008.

Either Benjamin was one of these guys that takes money to run as a Democrat so that the Republican can win easily or he ran as a Democrat because he thought he might make money it doesn't really matter.

And that is Gravis Marketing's great success and only identified public client.

2.12 With an apparent failed attempt to become a partisan political money launderer

People want a 'smoking gun'. What about this. Kaplan, the so called non partisan pollster tried to set up a Super Pac so that he could manage media dollars and take a cut. Now, Mr. Silver would you consider this normal behavior for a national pollster, a 'non partisan' one at that?.

http://www.electionfund.org/Committee/Protect-Candidate-Speech-Pac

Committee Name: Protect Candidate Speech Pac

Treasurer: Douglas Joseph Kaplan

Committee Designation: Unauthorized

Committee Type: PAC

After Citizens United Kaplan just wanted a little share of all of that Koch money, just like any national pollster.

2.13 Kaplan as non partisan

Even though he is obviously slanted he continues to be noted by both RCP and Silver as 'non partisan'.

III. Part Three Looking at the Problems of Gravis Marketing Polls.


There is a lot to be covered here so I just included some basic points. If needed this can be dealt in more detail. So many anomalies. North Carolina gives only 1 in 4 independents going to Obama, in Colorado more AA support Romney than the President, Michigan, Gravis is the only pollster to put the state into the EOM.

3.1 Limited Math

The blog Angry Bear had an interesting encounter with Kaplan where he feebly came on to defend Gravis:

http://www.angrybearblog.com/2012/09/gravis-marketing-polls-and-reporting-ii.html

I recently read the entire results of the Gravis August poll of Pennsylvania preferences for Senate and President. I found the document to be sloppy and amateurish. Worse, I found a glaring mistake in the tabulations. I pointed out the mistake both on the Gravis blog (my comment was deleted by the blog administrator) and via email directly to Doug (still no reply after 12 hours).

Here is the mistake ... follow along:

The executive summary of the poll states that 46.76% of respondents support Tom Smith for Senate and that Smith leads Sen. Bob Casey 47% to 24% -- a difference of 23 percentage points. A few paragraphs later, the executive summary says that Smith leads Casey by 19 points. The pie chart accompanying the executive summary shows 46.76% for Smith, 28.06% for Casey, and 25.18% undecided.

The news release announcing the poll's results, meanwhile, refers to Smith receiving 46.76% support. Later, it says "the Polling shows a close race for President and Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey with a decent lead."

Huh?

A look at the poll's cross tabs reveals a serious mistake in the calculations. According to the cross tabs, 234 respondents said they would vote for Casey, 195 would vote for Smith, and 70 are undecided. Percentages are:

Casey: 46.89%
Smith: 39.08%
Undecided: 14.03%

Either Gravis fails at basic math, or it is intentionally misstating the poll's results -- I don't know which is worse.

I see many other problems with the methodology -- a poll conducted just one weekday afternoon; way too many respondents over age 50; too many whites; female and minority support for republicans that defies national trends, etc.

But this error is simple math. How could Gravis so seriously misstate the poll's results? How is it that they have any credibility in any polling work?

3.2 Who has become the most dominant polling source from many key swing states

As detailed in 2.1 Above

3.3 Becomes the highest weighted pollster for Silver

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Start with North Carolina and work through the swing states. Nate consistently gives Gravis Marketing a full maximum 4 bar rating

3.4 Most frequently used by RCP

For Ohio, Florida and Colorado Gravis Marketing has more polls posted at RCP than any other since Gravis started producing. See 2.1 for the numbers.


No time for proof reading so apologies for syntax and spelling erros. tks.

[FSogol]

1. K&R.

Awesome work.

[speedoo]

2. Excellent work again, grantcart.

K&R.

[grantcart]

40. thanks

[Baitball Blogger]

3. It's a quick read, seriously.

This absolutely sounds like the fly by nights that are common in Florida.

[DURHAM D]

4. Thanks for putting all of this together in one place.

But I come away with one giant question.

What does the continuing use of Doug's "polls" suggest about Nate Silver?

[grantcart]

5. he has a model that requires a huge flow of data to be effective

Its great for Baseball, worked in 2008 but has made him desperate for data now.

[DURHAM D]

7. iows its bogus.

His baseball model was based on statistics. His political analysis is based on bogus polls. He is no better than Ms. Cleo.

Who is the bigger con? Doug or Nate.

[Cha]

6. Thanks for the investigative reporting, grant.

[GoneOffShore]

8. Keep going sir.

[berni_mccoy]

9. K&R

[starroute]

10. You might toss in a bit about DeVry University under education (2.5)

It's one of those notorious for-profit universities that advertise heavily and are responsible for a disproportionate number of student loan defaults.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/education/story/2011-10-18/student-loans-for-profit-college/50819470/1

For-profit schools such as the University of Phoenix, DeVry University and hundreds of smaller institutions have been particularly successful in winning students and their federal aid by offering courses that focus on specific careers, often taught online and aimed at older, non-traditional students. . . .

Critics have questioned the quality, cost and tactics of some for-profit schools. Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, led an investigation last year that found that nearly one-fourth of students from for-profit colleges default on their loans within three years of leaving school, most without a degree. The senator's report: "Debt without a Diploma."

Nearly half of all federal student loan defaults occur at for-profit schools, although the schools have only 10% of higher education students, Harkin found.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeVry_University

In 1995, DeVry was suspended from Ontario's student loan program after a large number of its students misreported their income. . . .

In 1996, students of DeVry's Toronto campus filed a class-action suit claiming poor educational quality and job preparation; the suit was dismissed on technical grounds. . . .

In November 2000, Afshin Zarinebaf, Ali Mousavi and another graduate of one of DeVry University’s Chicago-area campuses filed a class-action lawsuit accusing DeVry of widespread deception, unlawful business practices and false advertising and alleging that students were not being prepared for high tech jobs. . . .

In January 2002, Royal Gardner, a graduate of one of DeVry University’s Los Angeles-area campuses, filed a class-action complaint against DeVry Inc. and DeVry University, Inc. on behalf of students in the post-baccalaureate degree program in Information Technology. The suit alleged that the nature of the program was misrepresented by the advertising. . . .

In April 2007 the State of New York settled with three schools that were participating in questionable student loan practices. DeVry, Career Education Corporation, and Washington University in St. Louis were involved with the settlement. . . .

[grantcart]

15. right but all we know he attended a single semester.

I am sure that if he did more than that we would have heard about it.

[progressivebydesign]

19. DeVry was like the Roach Motel. Kaplan "entered" DeVry, but never checked out. nt

[freshwest]

24. There is no sign of a moral compass in this dude. None.

[grantcart]

84. We no longer think that he even attended DeVry at all.

[Denzil_DC]

11. K&R n/t

[flamingdem]

12. K&R

[Lone_Star_Dem]

13. Excellent research!

Thank you for putting all your time into this you have. You're amazing.

[riverwalker]

14. impressive work, thank you n/t

[ohheckyeah]

16. From Angry Bear Blog comments:

Beverly Mann Sep 8, 2012 10:41:00 PM

From Gravis Marketing’s website:

“WELCOME TO GRAVIS MARKETING
“Gravis Marketing

“Providing the political advertising software and services that get the campaign responses and results you want.”

Getting the results you want, indeed. This firm doesn’t have the word “marketing” in its title for nothing.

[progressivebydesign]

18. yikes "the results you want." That is just so wrong. nt

[progressivebydesign]

17. K&R. It's perfect. Pisses me off that the MSM used THAT poll to change the narrative of the race!

Makes me really wonder about Nate Silver. He HAS to know that Gravis is a fraud, and that ARG is right wing, and yet he used them both to suddenly flip the election on its head. And (R)Assmussen, working for Fox and yet people think he's impartial?

[silvershadow]

20. Gravis Marketing sounds like part of the plan to steal the election if you ask me. Probably has

Karl Rove's cell phone number on speed dial.

[truebluegreen]

21. Thank you so much for this.

Excellent work. I've been wigging a bit...

[dgauss]

22. You could have a future in the polling business.

Seriously, accuracy and insight are still appreciated by a lot of people.

[LadyHawkAZ]

23. KICK!

[creeksneakers2]

25. The website says they do robocalling

Enough said.

[InsultComicDog]

61. which prevents them from legally calling cell phones

and may skew to an older demographic for that reason.

[clownseven]

26. More Info including his youtube account info where he "Likes" an Ayers hit piece form McCain in 2008

Youtube account.

It's mostly innocuous except that he highlighted a campaign piece from McCain about Obama and Ayers.

More of his internet presence:

Here.

here which includes that he was involved in a business called livemortgageleads.com which seems defunct.

Here he is spamming a blog. There are several similar ones out there.

His CV.

His gmail is [e-mail] and he owns several unused domain names including voterfiles.com and newmover.net. His yahoo email is [e-mail] which was compromised during a lulzsec breach of militarysingles.com.

I'm sure there's more out there but I'm tired.

[ffr]

27. Remind me to never piss OP off

Holy crimeny! Go get 'em!

[grantcart]

32. doug is that you? Warning don't hit the link, it shows a warning

[Major Hogwash]

29. Maybe so, but if you weren't shaken to the core by the testimony of "Cindy L of Oregon", then . . .

. . . you are a cold-hearted bastard!



For no apparent reason that I can ascertain, Rachel Maddow didn't pay any attention to the fact that Gravis has no veritas after the first part of your exposé hit the DU, and therefore the Google.
I guess Rachel didn't hear about it on the Daily Kos Blog, either.
Which is really sad.

Worse yet, she had Nate Silver on her program last week after the VP debate, and he acted like he had never heard anything bad or untoward about Gravis either.

Rachel didn't respond to any of the tweets or e-mails about Gravis being a con operation, that I know of, anyway.
It doesn't make any sense.

Rachel should have started her program on Friday by saying, "And now we have 'Breaking News', startling news, in fact. One of the polling companies that have been quoted on this program, one that gave Romney higher polling numbers in swing states . . . is a con operation with no credibility whatsoever!"

That's the way Randolph Scott would have done it.

[grantcart]

34. alerting. We don't want private medical information here, even if it is already on

the internet.

[grasswire]

31. kick nt

[clownseven]

33. A quote from Kaplan: "I love Donald Trump."

Here is one of his twitter accounts. A highlight which seals it for me that he's in the tank of the GOP:

Just watched Bill O. I love Donald Trump. We need a real person not a diplomats who can lead our country. Trump has me sold.
March 31, 2011 from Twitter - Comment - Like - Share

[clownseven]

35. Even more from his twitter

RT @pamelageller: The Overthrowers are Outta Control O-Armies get Violent, Hit Reporter, Activists: The left's thug armies are get... http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_s...

[clownseven]

36. And the smoking gun. He's a Beck fan.

People say Beck is crazy, I have not watched him in awhile. Listen to him this AM. Sounded Rational to Me. @bapartofmylife @glennbeck

[grantcart]

38. well the most interesting is that he is a fan of

James O'KeefeIII.

Now in Doug Kaplan's last posting here he was referred to and responded with the name 'clown'

You seem to have information that all together only Doug Kaplan would have.

If you are Doug Kaplan and want to reveal it we can help you.

We have friends of friends at the NYT and Rachel Maddow's show and I am sure that they would be interested

in talking to Doug Kaplan and hearing how he punked the whole freaking country.

How about it Doug?

[grantcart]

39. Ya know if it is an elaborate punk it is one of the greatest

would be a great movie. I am guessing Paul Giamatti would be perfect to play Doug Kaplan

What do you think?

[ohheckyeah]

37. More of his web pages.

http://www.dougkaplan.net/Home_Page.html


http://www.facebook.com/dougkaplan

[grantcart]

41. thanks

[thevoiceofreason]

42. You hit this one deep and I don't think it is playable!

Great job.

[grantcart]

44. there's more, there's more

[Waiting For Everyman]

43. So clearly, any of the poll numbers affected by this are bullshit.

So why are we sweating those at all? 538 and RCP are both out the window.

So all the validating of Romney that those polls contributed in the weeks since the first debate, are bullshit as well. The turnaround was less about his "performance" and more about this phoneying of the numbers.

How convenient. Very frankly, this strikes me as similar to the amateurish antics of the Watergate plumbers and Dirty Tricksters. I think this is THE story of this election, and I think the national reporters and pollsters should've checked this out a lot sooner. What the hell have they been doing but mouthing each other's pablum?

I'm really disgusted. Well at least we don't have to waste any energy on those particular polls until this gets fixed. I'm curious as to what Nate Silver and RCP are going to do, and say, about this. And the self-righteous know-it-all pundits, they've been reporting nonsense for weeks! Unreal.

Kudos grantcart! Very well done indeed.

[grantcart]

45. thanks

[Maeve]

46. No, thank YOU!!! eom

[grantcart]

47. thanks for the kick

[InsultComicDog]

48. As far as Nate

I don't think, first of all, that he perceives himself to be, as you apparently want him to be, the "Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval for Polls". Nate seems to have a default weighting system for new pollsters that is increased or decreased over time. He also gives higher weight to newer polls than older ones. But I think he expects his model to deal with house effects, and he expects that over time he will weed out bad pollsters. I think the problem here is that the guy just shows up in August and whatever system Nate had in place does not anticipate someone just showing up this late out of the blue.

[thevoiceofreason]

51. But brand new polls from ARG are weighted less

That is, Nate has assigned a house bias to them and gives them 2-3 bars right off the bat.

With no background, he gives Gravis, er Basalt, the full monty.

[InsultComicDog]

56. What I'm saying is that

What I'm saying is that Gravis is getting the default treatment that new pollsters get... he expects his model to correct the problem over time. Problem is, the guy just showed up in August, and I don't think Nate accounted for something like that.

[speedoo]

52. I don't think it's helpful to make excuses for Nate.

My understanding is that he has been alerted to this and provided all the information to "weed him out", so the question is, what is he waiting for?

We should be pushing Nate on this, not making it easier for him to continue to duck the issue.

[InsultComicDog]

58. While I can't speak for Nate

I suggest the reason is that he does not want to keep making changes to his model in mid-campaign.

I don't think what he designed accounted for deliberate attempts to create fraudulent polls, and that is a problem.

He did put this in his column today:

There are also some critiques that one can render about these polls. Gravis Marketing surveys, for instance, rely on cheap automated interviews. While they are usually more Republican-leaning than the consensus, they also seem to wander about randomly with little rhyme or reason.

[GeorgeGist]

68. Junk science.

[grantcart]

54. Nate's a big boy and when he signed the deal to sell his franchise to the NYT he knew

exactly where it would put him, on the hot seat.

In my past life I was in manufacturing and I became a 9001 qualified inspector.

There are 20 areas that you have to control when you set your quality levels.

The most important one is the quality of your raw material. Once you get it in there is nothing you can do to improve it.

Nate is responsible for picking which polls he puts in his model, no one else is.

Its a bigger problem than just this one bad apple. In the Citizens United period what if one side flooded the field with right wing polls. All legitimate but skewed to the right 3-4 points.

Well that is what is happening. Gravis, Rasmussen, ARG, Purple Strategies and WeAskAmerica are all right wing polls and go and luck at a swing state what percent of the polls these guys represent.

They are desparate. They need to keep it close to keep the donations coming and to keep the media from calling it game over.

This isn't 2008 and it appears that Silver hasn't adjusted to the new playing field.

[InsultComicDog]

59. I agree that he needs to adjust something

But he is a stats guy by background, not a QA guy. He had an idea that he could apply his baseball "sabremetrics" methods to polling, and I followed along with him on DailyKos when he started doing this under the "Poblano" alias before we knew what his real name was.

The wingnuts are gaming the system, and this unfortunately is screwing with the models that Nate painstakingly created.

[GeorgeGist]

69. GIGO

it's so 80's.

[dchill]

49. K & R!

[Tom Rinaldo]

50. If they give Pulitzer prizes for online political investigative journalism, you deserve it. n/t

[grantcart]

55. I will settle for a 'Rinaldo' instead.

It will have an honored place on my mantel.

[BumRushDaShow]

53. Damn. Another fine piece of work.

Bravo!

[pnwmom]

57. So has Nate Silver had any response to this information?

I assume someone's passed this on to him.

Thanks for all the work, grantcart.

[TroyD]

66. Nate seems to give Gravis several 'bars' in his weighting model

How come?

Shouldn't he reduce its weighting based on what we know?

[pnwmom]

71. I think he should toss it completely based on what we know.

[InsultComicDog]

60. Hopefully Gravis will get similar treatment

Certain types of polls are not assigned a weight at all, but are instead dropped from consideration entirely, and not used in FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts nor listed in its polling database. from the firms Strategic Vision and Research 2000, which have been accused – with compelling statistical evidence in each case – of having fabricated some or all of their polling, are excluded. So are interactive (Internet) polls conducted by the firm Zogby, which are associated with by far the worst pollster rating, and which probably should not be considered scientific polls, as their sample consists of volunteers who sign up to take their polls, rather than a randomly-derived sample. (Traditional telephone polls conducted by Zogby are included in the averages, as are Internet polls from firms other than Zogby.)

[loudsue]

62. GREAT POST!! This is DU research at its finest!

Grantcart, you're the bomb.

[grantcart]

80. thanks

[1StrongBlackMan]

63. Posted to for later reading; but ...

from the look of it; I'm:

1) More confident that what we (Democrats) "feel" is closer to reality; than what is being reported. IOW, President Obama is doing better than is being reported ... alot better. (Now whether that is deliberate or innocent error is another question).

2) More inclined to take a wait and see position with Silver. How many poll compilers actually do in-depth investigations of their poll suppliers; beyond looking for bias, so that they can proper weight them. If Silver's model is quantity-driven, I doubt that he would ... it's all about more data, rather than more "good" data - and this is the flaw in his model.

But my wait and see will be short ... I'm pretty certain Silver has seen this piece; so innocent error rapidly becomes deliberate action, based on what is done with the information.

Thanks for the information.

[Quixote1818]

64. K and R

[WillyT]

65. K & R !!!

[NorCen_CT]

67. Linkedin

http://www.linkedin.com/in/douglaskaplan

Here is his Linkedin page. Notice anything curious under "Groups and Associations"?

"Current and Former Capitol Hill Staffers"

[link:http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=119971|]

as well as (albeit, a bit less innocuous)

"Politics on the Rocks"

[link:http://www.linkedin.com/groups/Politics-on-Rocks-44711|]

which is described thusly,

About the Politics on the Rocks Group
The purpose of the Politics on the Rocks is to link like-minded Republican & Conservative professionals together in a monthly happy hour where they can network, socialize, and hear directly from prominent politicians and successful
business leaders.

www.PoliticsontheRocks.com

As well as retweeting wingnut conspiracy theories,

"

Jason Duffy Klemm ?@rukiddingme66
Obama N secret meets with Muslim brotherhood, BHO is out 2 destroy Isreal and us. American Jews are stupid if they cant see whats happening
Retweeted by Doug Kaplan

And finally, supporting Donald Trump during his ill-fated "testing the water" phase of a potential '12 run,

Doug Kaplan ?@dobied
Just watched Bill O. I love Donald Trump. We need a real person not a diplomats who can lead our country. Trump has me sold.
Collapse Reply Retweet Favorite
7:52 PM - 31 Mar 11 · Details

I'll see if I can dig up more. Also, I noticed GravisMarketing.co (or many other extension names) are available on domain registry sites for $9.99. If I purchase one, or a few of these domains, would you be willing to post all of this info there?

[GeorgeGist]

70. ROFLMAO ...

By the age of 14, I had read several books .

http://www.site.dougkaplan.net/Doug_Kaplan.html

[patrice]

72. K&R. Pease share, All!

[neffernin]

73. A bit more...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Gravis_CO_1006.pdf

Who is Thomas Young Phd? Does it take a doctorate to cook the polls?

Also, according to his Linked-in he graduated from a completely different college than what is mentioned before.

I'd like to congratulate you on this very well put together information frying this guy, I've honestly had my suspicions that the polls were being cooked for the longest time...

[hrmjustin]

74. welcome to DU.

[neffernin]

76. Thanks

Being an internet junkie I'm not sure how I didn't come across this place before, and I am not even sure how I came across it today. So sick of reading the ignorant blatherings of commend sections on cnn and yahoo. I suppose it is my own fault for putting myself through that torture.

[hrmjustin]

77. great just do yourself a favor. Until the elections are over don't post anything on the downer side.

we get alot of trolls and some people get to jumpy about it. Enjoy DU and all it has to offer.

[neffernin]

90. Noted

Can't get as many trolls as comment sections on stories that Drudge posts.

[neffernin]

91. Engarde

Suppose I've already felt the wrath there, already had a post shot down by a bunch of people yelling "Troll". I suppose my dream is to find a community that is completely ruled by truth and logic and no emotion. While Fox News is the devil in terms of honesty, I've a hard time with CNBC because I find it too sensational. There's no need! The facts speak for themselves. Any logical person should be able to easily see the faults in logic that the Republicans bring across.

[Doremus]

75. Excellent research, thank you so much.

You have given us a rare glimpse into the machinery of stolen elections.

Throwing open the veil and letting in the sunshine is the only way to shut it down.

Again, thank you for your work.

[chollybocker]

78. Thank you, grantcart.

DUers rock. I'm on the edge of my seat for Act III.

[TriplD]

79. K and R

Thanks for putting this all together.

[NorCen_CT]

81. Rove and company smell blood in the water?

[link:http://seminoleclerk.org/CivilDocket/case_detail.jsp?CaseNo=2011CA003311|]

Looks like our friend Doug was Foreclosed on (last update for the case was on 4/9/12, just 90 days or so before his influx of polls saturated the market).

If he was being foreclosed on, how did he get the $$$ to start up this "massive" polling operation (has put out more polls in swing states than most, if not all other reputable pollsters, and he is doing it "without taking a cent", supposedly)?

Is it possible someone on the right saw someone ripe for the picking (granted, he had absolutely no profile whatsoever, nationally, state-wide etc.) who would do their bidding for them, ushering some of the seemingly unlimited Super-PAC dollars into Doug/Gravis Marketing's pockets, and in return he would issue whatever numbers were asked of him?


http://seminoleclerk.org/CivilDocket/case_detail.jsp?CaseNo=2011CA003311

[grantcart]

82. That was new to us. It is very interesting

Thanks and welcome to DU.

[EmeraldCityGrl]

83. This Post is Making News

I'm sure it's spreading.


http://www.logarchism.com/2012/10/14/a-gravis-fraud

http://www.intrade.com/v4/forum/

[grantcart]

85. very interesting, very helpful, keep us informed of any others

[EmeraldCityGrl]

87. Will keep a search going n/t

[MuhkRahker]

86. Doug Kaplan choose to falsely bolster Gary Johnson's Ohio numbers above 10%

I suspect out of boredom he decided to toss in a bit of random drama for his personal amusement, this lowly fax-scammer must love his new job and be riding high this first taste of power he's probably ever had. No doubt Kaplan got some Libertarian's hopes up with this one, likely Johnson's campaign staff included. He even has the gull to dose out commentary on his fake poll results, read his quotes in this article...

http://newmexico.watchdog.org/16306/poll-shows-gary-johnson-at-10-6-in-ohio-is-that-for-real/

What a clown. Hopes this story blows up, it feels like it might. Keep the pressure on Nate. We should look into a few of the other upstart clearly right-wing pollsters, but where to start? I'm new here but I've avidly read DU posts for years, these types of investigations are the best feature of the site!
Keep up the great work!

[Truthbuster]

88. Awesome Investigation - Confirmed Susupicions...Now..????

I've tweeted above & will keep tweeting to the world!!

Not just a very professional, in-depth investigation, but a timely important expose of the polling bullshit we've been exposed to recently, primarily RW opinion manipulation.

I am also suspicious about American Research Group (ARG); in attempting to get more in-depth information on the composition of their sample, I couldn't find a human contact to speak to, an address or website other than the scant site pages announcing poll results.

I also reviewed 2 years of polling results listed on TPM - more on that scam later. But I noticed if, say, ARG was polling Ohio on same day/s as any of the established credible pollsters...ARG results were quite different and generally always made Romney the winner, if the other polls reported Obama.

Do you have any background on ARG? Or Weasel Strategies & Clarus? If not, do you have time to launch an investigation into them.

We need to expose & stunt the RW propaganda team behind RCP before Nov 5 (Guy Fawkes Night!!)

You get my awesome vote today =^..^=

[NorCen_CT]

89. More Information

The "headquarters"/only location of Gravis, is smaller than most rooms at a decent hotel. Square footage of Gravis Marketing Worldwide Headquarters? 620 sq ft.

http://casselberrycommercevillage.com/ccv1_005.htm


I'll have more later on.