MIT Predicted in 1972 That Society Will Collapse This Century. New Research Shows We're on Schedule.

[Clash City Rocker]

Study author Gaya Herrington told Motherboard that in the MIT World3 models, collapse “does not mean that humanity will cease to exist,” but rather that “economic and industrial growth will stop, and then decline, which will hurt food production and standards of living… In terms of timing, the BAU2 scenario shows a steep decline to set in around 2040.”

https://www.vice.com/en/article/z3xw3x/new-research-vindicates-1972-mit-prediction-that-society-will-collapse-soon

[Johnny2X2X]

1. 2040... the year I am supposed to retire

We live in a post truth world, that's just starting and will only get worse.

[erronis]

8. The gods aligned the stars just for your retirement party. Rejoice! And then prepare to live the

rest of your life in a bunker.

(I should god-willing be unable to attend.)

[Klaralven]

2. More likely it will usher in the next global total war

It would be about 100 years from the previous global total war, WW I&II.

That's the same as the interval between the French Revolution/Napoleonic Wars and WW II&II, i.e. 1815 to 1914.

However, since the previous interval was longer, from 1648 to 1789 (Thirty Years War to the French Revolution), we might expect that the next interval will be shorter, and that the next global total war could begin anytime between now and 2040.

Biological warfare seems a safe bet to achieve a significant reduction in global population.

[roamer65]

3. It's all fun and games until...

...and they WILL get used.

[erronis]

9. We also tend to look at major wars from a euro-centric standpoint.

Lots of nasty wars fought in Asia that didn't get the WW-xx nomenclature.

[Klaralven]

13. Total war in the sense of two groups of nations devoting all their resources to conflict is European

From 1914 to 1950 you have WW I proper from 1914-18, continuing revolution and ethnic cleansing until 1922, the Spanish flu epidemic, starvation in Ukraine, the Spanish Civil War, the Japanese invasion of China, WW II proper from 1939-45, German concentration camps, various Soviet purges, the Chinese Revolution and Chinese purges.

The butcher's bill is upwards of 200 million direct and indirect casualties. And it was truly global in extent.

Proportionately, the greatest conflagration in the last millennium was the Mongol Conquests/Black Death, which also totaled well over 200 million on a much smaller base. By the 1380s, it had reduced population enough that the 140 year later wars of religion between Protestants and Catholics never managed to reach total war intensity, even in Europe. It took another interval until the early 1600 Thirty Years War and the simultaneous transition from Ming to Ching in China.

Episodes of really big wars do have a rhythm.

[erronis]

16. So many conflicts/ethnic cleansing that don't fit in. The bolshevik/menshevik revolution that

started the communist party rise in Russia which led to the expansion of the USSR and the subjugation of the Muslim areas and the hostilities with the nascent communists in China and...

I hadn't thought about the progression of diseases and starvation that were sometimes used as a weapon of war (witness the US vs. indigents and smallpox). I'm also sure that the African continent has had many violent spasms that are national and tribal and ethnic.

So, the rhythm may be partly natural (food supplies, pandemics) and social (periods of plenty and then greed/internecine hatred.)

I'm out of my league discussing this but like trying to understand. Barbara Tuchman has been one of my past guides.

[orwell]

4. Klaatu barada nikto...

...about the only thing that can save us now...

[Buckeye_Democrat]

18. Lol, the woman happens to enter some kind of warehouse...

... at night, with homes in the background, and she's the only person there!

The Theremin-music from those old horror movies bring back memories!

[Delphinus]

20. How cool!

I had no idea how this was done - thanks!

[Buckeye_Democrat]

21. I'm surprised that I haven't heard it in recent horror...

... films, like an homage to the old movies.

Maybe it's been done in some recent horror-comedies that I missed or just forgot?

[intheflow]

5. Ya know what's gonna hurt food productin?

Global climate change. That's what's going to collapse the system, that's what's going to stop economic and industrial growth.

[Duppers]

6. Absolutely!

But people would rather keep their heads in the sand.

Faux Lies should be banned.

[KS Toronado]

12. That's it in a nutshell.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

19. Maybe humanity won't need as much food if...

... Republican politicians and their media propaganda can kill enough people.

[Duppers]

7. K & R

Global Warming, as intheflow posted above.

[calimary]

10. Yep. And the stupids MAY - repeat - MAY finally start to wake up

long after we’d have been able to reverse the damage.

This makes me sad, and scared. Just hoping I don’t live long enough to see it.

[Duppers]

14. We may, sadly.

My one & only child decided to never have children because he doesn't want a child dying in the dystopic world that's coming. Am sad but very glad he's made this decision.

Just wish more people understood.

[bucolic_frolic]

11. "the terminal decline of economic growth"

yeah that will get someone's attention. But you're safe in a McMansion, amiright?

[Warpy]

15. Civilizations rarely collapsed all at once unless there was a catastrophe

Revolutions occurred and the ruling class was eliminated and the ciiies abandoned, but the people went on in the towns for a long time, many not realizing they were in decline. We know they were from examination of the bones they left behind.

What we are likely heading for now is a massive financial collapse, possibly followed closely by agricultural catastrophe due to climate change. I say financial collapse because there are so many debt bombs and their fuses are getting really short.

[-misanthroptimist]

17. They got the collapse right

But they totally blew it on the cause. It will be Climate Change ultimately -possibly causing nuclear war. But it will be good ol' CO2 emissions that kill civilization.

[JCMach1]

22. Not trusting a 1972 simulation, thanks... no matter who made it