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Sat Jul 17, 2021, 10:54 AM

US CV-19 Fifth Wave

Well as of Friday it looks like the fifth wave is here (79K daily cases per JHU). The number of cases and rate of exponential growth is similar to this time last year (the second wave), if not a bit more severe.

The UK may be an ominous bellwether, which means the peak here may reach or exceed the heights of the third wave (250K - 300K daily cases).

Vaccination rates are dropping off dramatically, implying that naturally acquired immunity is the only herding path open to the unvaccinated.

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Response to Shermann (Original post)

Sat Jul 17, 2021, 11:00 AM

1. Naturally acquired immunity doesn't seem to be much of a path.

“In general the research saw a correlation between disease severity and lasting immune response. Over 90 percent of asymptomatic cases showed no measurable immune response six months later. A quarter of symptomatic cases lacked lasting immunity six months after infection.“
https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/vaccine-immunity-stronger-than-natural-infection-covid/

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Response to Phoenix61 (Reply #1)

Sat Jul 17, 2021, 11:07 AM

3. I'll have to read the study

My understanding is that the actual protection offered by the immune system can't accurately be measured.

But perhaps Oxford has cracked the code with this "novel machine-learning approach".

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Response to Shermann (Reply #3)

Sat Jul 17, 2021, 11:14 AM

4. I suppose protection could be measured with "challenge" studies

There are ethical considerations that preclude deliberately attempting to infect a study group with COVID19.

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Response to Shermann (Reply #3)

Sat Jul 17, 2021, 12:10 PM

14. It can be objectively measured with serum studies.

You take a volume of serum, add a known quanity of virus, and see how much falls out as a precipitate.

That measures how many of the viral particles the immune system cells recognized, attached to and neutralized.

Where it most likely gets tricky is the relationship between how much precipate is produced vs how symptomatic an individual would be is likely nonlinear, and could be different by a variant's ability to invade a cell.

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Response to Shermann (Original post)

Sat Jul 17, 2021, 11:05 AM

2. "The number of cases and rate of exponential growth is similar to this time last year..." What?

July 15, 2020, the 7-day moving average for cases in the U.S.: 66,869

July 15, 2021, the 7-day moving average for cases in the U.S.: 27,806


https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases

More importantly, cases are not the metric to watch. The vaccines never promised zero cases. Vaccinations are about limiting the negative outcomes from being positive. For example, look at deaths from a year ago:

July 15, 2020, the 7-day moving average for deaths in the U.S.: 870

July 15, 2021, the 7-day moving average for cases in the U.S.: 223


https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases

If you are looking for zero covid cases, that may never happen. We have to learn to live with it.


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Response to Yavin4 (Reply #2)

Sat Jul 17, 2021, 11:15 AM

5. Well we are at the very beginning of the wave

So the averaged daily case count hasn't caught up yet. It is possible that it won't, but I doubt it. My point stands.

Daily case counts are certainly an important metric here, although the lower death count can be seen as a silver lining.

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Response to Shermann (Reply #5)

Sat Jul 17, 2021, 11:20 AM

6. Yea, case wise we are already half way there.

NT

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Response to Shermann (Reply #5)

Sat Jul 17, 2021, 11:26 AM

7. You said...

The number of cases and rate of exponential growth is similar to this time last year (the second wave), if not a bit more severe.


Which is not true at all. It's not similar to last year nor is it as severe. The vaccines are doing what they're supposed to do. Posts like yours gives oxygen to the antivaxxers by providing misleading information.

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Response to Yavin4 (Reply #7)

Sat Jul 17, 2021, 11:28 AM

8. Agree 100%!!

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Response to Yavin4 (Reply #7)

Sat Jul 17, 2021, 11:42 AM

10. I think you're being to literal to what they're saying.

You're assuming the waves started at the exact same date as 2020 and 2021. Where they're saying the numbers are similar to the second wave of last year, which occurred at similar times (the summer season), but the second wave actually started in June of 2020 about 2 weeks after many states opened up. This wave in 2021 seems to be coming on about 2 weeks after 4th of July. You're information, thus, doesn't negate the original statement. Given vaccination numbers and the new variants I don't know exactly how good a model last season will actually be. One assumes the CDC is correct and this wave will mostly cut through the unvaccinated and vaccinated will get mild or no symptoms. We can also assume most vaccinated will not bother to get covid tests this summer and so the exact infection rate among the vaccinated will not be well known.

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Response to Johonny (Reply #10)

Sat Jul 17, 2021, 11:54 AM

12. Exactly.

We appear to be halfway there already, and this wave a little behind (timewise) but it's going to catch up.

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Response to Yavin4 (Reply #7)

Sat Jul 17, 2021, 12:10 PM

13. I posted one statistic (daily cases) and cited it (JHU)

Misleading information my ass.

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Response to Shermann (Original post)

Sat Jul 17, 2021, 11:29 AM

9. The US had nearly 41,000 new cases yesterday

according to worldometers and the the numbers are rising rapidly. I would not want to be in Florida right now … although I am vaccinated.

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Response to Shermann (Original post)

Sat Jul 17, 2021, 11:48 AM

11. Mother Nature is going to put on quite a show.

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