Sinema is making up for lost support among Democrats with Republicans and independents

[bluewater]

Polling in Arizona suggests that Sinema is making up for her loss of support among Democrats with Republicans and independents.

A poll by Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights last month found that while Sinema is viewed negatively by nearly a third of Democrats in the state, her approval rating was 46 percent, about the same as her fellow Democratic senator, Mark Kelly. A Bendixen & Amandi International poll earlier this summer found similar results.

“Arizona does have a history of having maverick senators who have challenged their own party from time to time, and Arizona voters have a history of rewarding that,” said Kirk Adams, a former Republican state House speaker and former chief of staff to Gov. Doug Ducey.

“There will be activists in the party and outside groups that will be very upset and will oppose her and will swear that they’re going to take her down in the next election,” he said. “But Kyrsten is always very strategic. I think she understands the state very well, and I think she’s going to be rewarded by those moderate Republican and independent voters.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/05/sinema-arizona-democrats-congress-515108

The polls are what the polls are.

[Tom Rinaldo]

1. Her problem is she won't survuve a primary in either party regardless of which (re)nomination route

...she chooses. She voted to impeach Trump. No way she gets to run as a Republican without a Trumpist challenging her in a primary, and "moderates" don't win Republican primaries in purple/red states. No way she would win a Democratic primary at this point either and she definitely will face a Democratic challenger should she seek another term. She would need to run as an Independent and beat both a Republican and Democratic challenger. Possible but difficult.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

10. Or get a ton of Independent votes in the primary

Indies outnumber Dems in Arizona, and they can vote in either primary.

[bluewater]

12. Interesting.

Thanks for the info!

[Salviati]

14. Or get any republican votes in the general...

[AZSkiffyGeek]

17. She has to get through the primary first

I think against any of the state crazies she’d win, but I think the primary could be tough. But it’s not so cut and dried as running any D against her. She didn’t win because she’s a quirky bisexual atheist, she won because McSally hitched her wagon to Trump in a wave election. And she barely won then.

[brooklynite]

44. What data suggests that she wouldn't win the Democratic Primary?

Keep in mind, she's not up for three years. Not sure the current angst will be remembered by most voters.

[Tom Rinaldo]

47. I wrote "No way she would win a Democratic primary at this point..."

Obviously we are engaged in speculation on a discussion board, but it is fair to say that current polling data "suggests" she would lose a democratic primary. It's not just that her "favorables" are currently underwater with Democrats in Arizona, they are significantly underwater, and that is polling of all Democrats, not likely Democratic primary voters, who always skew left.

Plus strong evidence not only suggests but establishes that she has lost the support of key activist organizations in AZ that busted their asses for her in 2018, but now are going so far as to raise money for some Democrat to oppose her. That too is hard evidence that suggests she has an uphill battle to hold onto the Democratic nomination. Not only has she disappointed some of her core backers, she has literally insulted them by refusing to communicate with them. That is behavior that Joe Manchin would never be guilty of.

Things can change in three years, but that is true in both directions. She might gain back some Democratic support, or she could lose more of it. All things considered I think it is fair to speculate she Sinema would lose a Democratic primary in 2024.

[Budi]

2. She's already stated she'll run again as an Independent.

But, hey thanks Democrats for helping raise her profile & allowing her the 'Money & Media' necessary to run & win her Senate seat as a Democrat.
She'll now stab ya in the back all the way thru election 2024, & split the vote in the end.
But wasn't that the end game afterall?
Nadar would be proud.

There's a pattern here with DINOs.

[bluewater]

6. Did she really?

And I am asking in a completely neutral tone just out of genuine curiosity, would you have a link to that?

[AZSkiffyGeek]

7. Source?

There’s been lots of speculation here she will. But I’ve never seen anything to that effect.

[Fiendish Thingy]

16. No she hasn't. She claims to be "independent", but not an Independent. Nt

[jcgoldie]

38. Is it legal in Az to run as an independent if shes primaried in the Democratic party?

Some states dont allow that.

[former9thward]

39. AZ primaries are in August

Independent candidates have to qualify for the ballot by July. So there is no time for a defeated primary candidate to run as a independent.

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

43. She'll know that it will be impossible for her to win the Democratic primary

long before primary season. She won't have the numbers to win as a Democrat, so she may run as an Independent, or retire from politics on the rewards she will be given by RW entities who will be grateful to her for her role in the destruction of democracy in the US.

[uponit7771]

49. Link to Sinema running as independent? Thx in advance

[secondwind]

3. A poll is nothing more than a snapshot in time... I learned this a long time ago.

[Funtatlaguy]

4. Would love to know her basic values. What does she care about?

What would get her to yes on infrastructure and voting rights?

[AZSkiffyGeek]

20. She wrote the infrastructure bill

She’s already voted yes on that.
I believe she had a hand in one of the voting rights bills, but not the other?
But she doesn’t want to remove the filibuster so to some that’s the same as opposing.

[bluewater]

23. "But she doesn't want to remove the filibuster so to some that's the same as opposing."

Because effectively it is, no?

In all fairness, the same can probably be said about many other senators who, so far, have not been put on the spot to actually change the filibuster.

[Funtatlaguy]

25. Is a carve out in filibuster possible ?

[bluewater]

28. Doesn't seem to be.

The Senate seems to love the filibuster, even Democratic Senators.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

26. This is true

I think they’re running out of patience, but I’ve seen numbers around 8 or 10 who oppose removing the filibuster. I believe Mark Kelly said as much in his debate with McSally last year.
I also wonder how much Sinema’s antics serve as a shiny object for the people who are keeping quiet to actually get things done…
During the stimulus vote-a-Rama everyone was talking about her curtsy while Schumer and Manchin hashed out their differences and passed the bill.

[lagomorph777]

45. Personal gain.

Put some pork in there, something for Pharma. They'll funnel her cut to her.

[qazplm135]

5. She may be able to squeak

By her next election but then again she might not.

She was a lot more of a sure thing if she was like Manchin and at least talking compromise.

[Fiendish Thingy]

15. With 17% approval from AZ Dems, she won't be squeaking by. Nt

[AZSkiffyGeek]

21. If BBB gets through, she'll have a chance

2024 is a long ways away. And frankly AZ Dems should be worrying more about Kelly in 2022. That’s far more important right now. Wait till he’s re-elected to try to primary Sinema.

[MFM008]

8. Then

She will have to outright run as a republican because they're going to primary her.

[Fiendish Thingy]

13. She can't win a GOP primary. Nt

[oasis]

9. Dems should help AZ Rep. Ruben Gallego raise his profile to make a run

for her seat in 2024. He's young, smart, and personable.

[Fiendish Thingy]

11. Except only Dems vote in the primary; Dem approval of Sinema is currently only 17%

Unless she turns it around and listens to her constituents, she will lose the Democratic primary in 2024.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/9/27/2054753/-Sinema-s-unforced-errors-have-cost-her-big-time-with-Arizona-Democrats

[bluewater]

18. I just learned that Arizona has open state-level primaries...

Yes! Arizona has an open primary law which allows any voter who is registered as independent to cast a ballot for one of the officially recognized political parties in State Primary Elections. Independent voters on the Permanent Early Voting List (PEVL) will receive a postcard in the mail asking them to choose which party ballot they wish to receive for the Primary Election. The corresponding primary ballot will then be sent by mail to the voter to complete approximately 27 days prior to the election. Independent voters who go to the polls on Election Day will be given the option to choose a party ballot at that time.

Note: This DOES NOT apply to the Presidential Preference Election. Voters must be registered with a recognized party to vote in the Presidential Preference Election.

https://azsos.gov/elections


But I think your point still stands, she has a lot of fence mending to do if she wants to win a Democratic primary.

[Lovie777]

19. She is serving her suppose . . .

stopping Democrats. She has and will be rewarded kindly from the republicans and she has opened to door for a republican to replace her.

[Bettie]

37. My guess is that she will have a lovely

multi million dollar a year job with a 'think tank' where her only duty is never, ever to show up.

[msongs]

22. she's not challenging her party, she's challenging the people of the usa nt

[FrankBooth]

24. Move ahead to 2024

Can Sinema count on the GOP poll respondents who say they approve of her to actually pull the lever and vote for her? Only a fool would count on that. The GOP who say they like her will vote for the GOP candidate on the ballot, and that won't be her. They don't like her, they like the way she's undercutting the Democratic agenda at a time they can't stop it themselves. When they have a viable GOP option, they are going to take it.

At some point she's going to have to make nice with the Democrats who supported her in a blue-trending state or run as an independent, and the former seems the less bumpy road. I think she fully realizes she's made some mistakes and expect that she'll figure out a way to mitigate them without losing face.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

29. Depends on the GOP candidate

And probably Trump as well.

[FrankBooth]

31. I guess

Arizona republicans don't strike me as likely to nominate a moderate in 2024, Trump or not. I find it extremely difficult to believe that any sizeable portion of Arizona republicans will ever vote for a Democrat, no matter how much they like the way she's messing with her own party now. When they have a GOP candidate to vote for, that's who the significant percentage of them are going to vote for, IMO.

Sinema can play the 'moderate' and try to suck up the right-leaning indy's, and hope enough Dems continue to support her. But counting on GOP defectors is a fool's game, and say what you will about her, I don't think she's a fool. It seems to me she miscalculated and is surprised by the way this is going down, and I expect that she'll do something to try and right the ship with her former supporters at some point, without having to make a public apology about it.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

32. I think there's a lot of truth to this

I truly believe that she inadvertently unleashed the Twitter mob, and now EVERYTHING she says and does is under a microscope. And she did a shitty job at damage control and she has also taken AZ Democrats for granted while shoring up her Indie cred.
Not to mention that she has no regard for optics since then.

I do think she'll ultimately fall in line - but it is frustrating not knowing where she is coming from - and the only information we have on her positions is anonymous leaks.

But I do come back to the fact that for all her maverick-ness, she's never been the deciding vote against Biden, Obama or the Democratic leadership position.

[Hortensis]

41. Interesting posts. Thanks, AZ.

[mcar]

27. I saw another poll today showing her numbers way down

among Independents.

Oh, I see. This is from Tiger Beat on the Potomac.

[bluewater]

30. lol "Tiger Beat on the Potomac"

Good one!

lol

[A HERETIC I AM]

33. I think somebody got to her.

It might not have taken much persuading, but someone from K Street or the Heritage Foundation (She is reportedly a serious fundy) or The Federalist Society or somewhere got to her and convinced her to act this way.

Promised her a lucrative career in lobbying if she did what they wanted.

I mean, she is acting like a classic DINO if there ever was one.

[JustAnotherGen]

34. So she'll run as a Republican in 2024?

She won't get the Democratic Nomination

[PoliticAverse]

35. It's all lots of fun speculation until she switches party. n/t

[Demsrule86]

36. They won't vote for her...they always vote Republican. She needs to be primaryed and you all

know in general I am against that...but we need to save the seat.

[Nixie]

40. It looks like she learned very well from the "revolution"

and “independents” just how to roll our party. She has more to pull from with the GOP and independents in red/purple Arizona than progressives and she is auditioning for them.

[LiberalFighter]

42. Of course Kirk Adams would say that... being a Republican

[Mad_Machine76]

46. She is a strange bird.

I get that it's Arizona and that her lifelong dream seems to be the next coming of John McCain but what she seems to be forgetting is that McCain: a.)Was a Republican b.)Bucked the party on occasions but mostly worked/voted with his party, certainly nowhere near her current level of obstinancy c.)Torpedoed a really BAD idea from his own party (ACA repeal). Sinema helped torpedo a really GOOD idea from her own party (Minimum Wage Hike). The whole thing with her behavior right now is that it all seems performative, like she's badly acting out a script (or acting out a bad script, not sure which). Democrats are currently in control of the Senate and WH, so she feels like she *has* to be contrary/obstinate. In the long run, I don't think it's going to help her and definitely not helping us.

[Baitball Blogger]

48. It comes down to two things:

a) Who comes to the polls to vote. AND,

b) Will her opponent be smart enough to make good hard-hitting commercials to show what the State lost because of her.

[BlueLucy]

50. Republicans won't vote for a (D) no matter what.

They want a Trumpkin.

[budkin]

51. She'd have no chance in a primary

She’s toast. And I know it’s 3 years away.