As redistricting gets under way, Democrats' prospects looking brighter

[applegrove]

BY REUTERS

As redistricting gets under way, Democrats’ prospects looking
brighter

By Joseph Ax and Jason Lange

https://www.politicususa.com/2021/10/04/as-redistricting-gets-under-way-democrats-prospects-looking-brighter.html

"SNIP.......

(Reuters) – When Republican-controlled states such as Texas and Florida gained U.S. House of Representative seats thanks to 2020 census data showing their populations are booming, it appeared Democrats were in for another bleak redistricting cycle.

But the census also found that most of the nation’s growth is in urban areas and among minorities. Coupled with the shift of suburban white voters toward Democrats during the presidency of Republican Donald Trump, the party’s prospects for the next decade are looking less dire.

Proposals for new congressional maps in Republican-controlled states such as Texas, Indiana and Georgia do not aggressively target Democratic incumbents and instead seek mostly to protect vulnerable Republicans whose suburban districts have become political battlegrounds.

Meanwhile, Democrats are poised to push through their own maps in states such as New York and Illinois, where urban growth and rural decline offer a chance to eliminate Republican districts. Gains there could help countermand Republican advantages elsewhere.

.......SNIP"

[ShazzieB]

1. This is really encouraging!

Meanwhile, a justice department taskforce investigating threats to election officials nationwide has launched inquiries in Georgia, where election officers and workers received death threats or warnings of violence, including some after Trump singled out one official publicly for not backing his baseless fraud claims.

I can't wait to see what happens to the maps hers in Illinois! I think it's going to be very interesting.

[Terry_M]

2. i'm not so happy

what it adds up to is that instead of gathering a bunch of GOP + 5 districts, they are giving up a district to a D here and there to draw up a handful of GOP + 10 districts. The idea being that those districts will remain reliably GOP even as population trends move away (so by 2030, rather than a GOP + 5 becoming a D+2, it's a GOP +10 that becomes a GOP +3).

So in the end more safe blue seats, more safe R seats and fewer swing districts.
They will still have an advantage (more safe Rs than safe Ds). It won't be as big of an advantage but it will be more durable, the swings from election to election will be much smaller - a democratic big wave year might be 230 to 205, a republican big wave year might be 240 to 195 - because the gerrymandering is playing defense which means trying to eliminate competitive districts or ones that MIGHT become competitive in the next few years based on demographic trends. Thus by the time it's all said and done, 10% of congressional seats will be possible to compete for at all, and the other 90% fairly safe for one party or the other. It's the electoral college all over again - with a few states that matter and a lot that don't at all.