I can predict, with 100% certainty that there will be an Iowa Caucus in 2024.

[brooklynite]

Last edited Sat Oct 9, 2021, 11:35 PM - Edit history (1)

…because a Caucus is the only choice Democrats will have.

A CAUCUS, by definition, is a candidate selection administered by the Party, as opposed to a PRIMARY which is administered by the State.

The Republica-controlled Government of Iowa WILL NOT not approve a PRIMARY. So the choice is a Caucus or nothing.

Now a Caucus does not mean the public process currently used in Iowa. The Iowa Democratic Party can implement a private voting process for its members. They can change the date of the vote. But there WILL be an Iowa Caucus.

[Klaralven]

1. They could have a mail-in caucus

[mahina]

2. What is a plan imary?

I make typos constantly so I apologize if that’s what that is, I’m not trying to make fun of you truly. Just trying to understand what you are saying.

[dem4decades]

3. They can have whatever they want, mid May sounds about right.

[mahina]

5. 🙌

Concur

[pnwmom]

4. Yeah, but that doesn't have to be the first event of the Democratic primary season. n/t

[SharonClark]

6. I agree but it's up to the national Dems to take it away.

Iowa Dems won't voluntarily give it up.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

9. Texas was forced to give up the Texas two step

The caucuses involved in the Texas two step was a great organizing event for the party but the Teas party had to abandon the Texas two step in 2016 due to the order of the DNC

[LetMyPeopleVote]

8. Neither Iowa nor New Hampshire reflect the demographics of the party

Neither should be first by itself and the DNC can regulate this by denying the seating of delegates if either Iowa or New Hampshire insisted on being first.

It you look at this year's contest, none of the candidates who did well in Iowa or New Hampshire did that well either. You cannot win the nomination without significant support from African Americans and other non-white segments of the Democratic base.

2024 will not matter in that I expect or believe that Biden will run and that 2024 will be like the 2012 cycle

[JustAnotherGen]

10. Agreed

Yep - I don't pay attention until SC and NV. In particular in SC - those women are reaching out to me in NJ and telling me what they see and think. Their vote influences mine. The only chance they have to be heard is if a black woman in NJ listens.

[brooklynite]

12. New Hampshire will continue to be the first Democratic Primary...

…because the Republican Government will continue to schedule it that way. Democrats can choose to accept the results, or ignore them and hold their own Caucus at a later date.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

13. Again, you are WRONG yet again

The DNC gets to decide the order of primaries and the penalty for violating DNC rules is the stripping of a states delegates or denying these delegates a vote. That is what happened in 2008 to Florida and Michigan.

[brooklynite]

15. YES the DNC can choose to accept or reject the results.

NO, the DNC cannot compel the State of New Hampshire to reschedule the Primary.

The Florida and Michigan delegations were penalized precisely because the State Governments DI NOT change the dates of their Primaries. Explain why the NH Government, controlled by Republicans, would care if NH Democrats had delegates for the DNC.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

17. Dems could dethrone Iowa

Iowa and New Hampshire are not guaranteed being the first contests. These two states do not represent the demographics of the party.

Link to tweet

Democratic Party leaders are considering overhauling the 2024 presidential primary calendar, a transformation that would include ousting Iowa and New Hampshire from their cherished perches as the first states to vote.

Senior party leaders and Democratic National Committee members are privately exploring the idea of pushing South Carolina and Nevada to the front of the primary election schedule, as well as the possibility of multiple states holding the first nominating contest on the same day.....

“I don’t think it’s appropriate to have those two states to set the tone. It’s really a false premise that if you do well in Iowa and New Hampshire you’re going to do well across the country. That was proven wrong with Joe Biden,” Reid said in an interview. “There’s no diversity in Iowa. There’s certainly no diversity in New Hampshire.”.....

Within the DNC, Democrats have talked about various approaches, including multiple states going first on the same day — such as Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina all voting together on a single date. Regional primaries are another option where, for instance, Iowa and another Midwestern state could vote at the same time.

“Many of us believe that the first four could be consolidated, and still provide a small-state focus,” said Larry Cohen, a longtime DNC member who was vice chair of the party’s post-2016 Unity Reform Commission. He also called for “further calendar consolidation so that states like New York and New Jersey actually mean something."

I trust Harry Reid, Jim Clyburn and Jaimie Harrison to work this out

[LetMyPeopleVote]

7. You are WRONG

You are again wrong. Here is some history that I thought was fairly common knowledge. Iowa has primaries that occur later in the year and so will not be first. The only reason why Iowa has a caucus is to compete with New Hampshire and try to be first in the Nation. If Iowa tried to have the first primary then New Hampshire would move its primary up https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_presidential_primary

New Hampshire state law[6] stipulates that the presidential primary shall be on the second Tuesday in March (the date when town meetings and non-partisan municipal elections are traditionally held), but that the Secretary of State must, if necessary, change the date to ensure that the New Hampshire primary will take place at least seven days before any "similar election" in any other state. The Iowa caucuses are not considered to be a similar election. In recent election cycles, the New Hampshire primary has taken place the week after the Iowa caucus.

Iowa has set primaries already and it would be easy to add the POTUS these primaries these regularly scheduled primaries are later than the caucus but are still available for the selection of delegates in the real world https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/electioninfo/primary/index.html

Filing Periods
The filing periods for the June 7, 2022, Primary Election are:

State and Federal Offices: February 28 – March 18, 2022 (5:00 p.m.)
County Offices: March 7 – March 25, 2022 (5:00 p.m.)
Federal and State candidate lists will be available and updated throughout the filing period.

Contact your county auditor for information on county candidates.

I note that Washington State had undemocratic caucuses in 2016 but chanded to a real primary in 2020 https://www.king5.com/article/news/politics/washington-democrats-will-replace-caucus-with-presidential-primary-results-in-2020/281-91c6fd0c-3177-4daf-a5a2-358faa37b39d

The Washington state Democratic Party announced Sunday it will use the state's 2020 presidential primary to allocate delegates to candidates instead of the precinct caucuses it has used in previous years.....

The Washington state Democratic Party announced Sunday it will use the state's 2020 presidential primary to allocate delegates to candidates instead of the precinct caucuses it has used in previous years.

The DNC has started the process of eliminating undemocratic caucuses. https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-iowa-ia-state-wire-nh-state-wire-e888a8c7620d5ed51110f9b8838f52b1

Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez said Monday that this year’s handful of presidential caucuses should be the last the party ever holds.

“I think by 2024 we ought to have everyone being a primary state,” Perez told The Associated Press in an interview on the opening day of the Democratic National Convention.

The chairman didn’t specifically name Iowa, which for decades has led off the nominating calendar, but his position could represent a seismic shift in the party’s traditions, and it underscores the pressure on the caucus structure that has intensified since Iowa’s count dragged out for days to open the 2020 nominating fight eventually won by Joe Biden.

See also https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/18/politics/2020-dnc-rules-caucuses-over/index.html

Before the Democratic National Convention's official program even began on Monday night, a major change in the way the party selects its nominee was floated -- a proposal that would end the caucus process, perhaps forever.

"I think by 2024 we ought to have everyone being a primary state," Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez told The Associated Press, adding: "I want everyone to participate, and having a state-run primary is the best way to accomplish that."
(Quick primer: A primary is where you go into a polling place, cast your vote and leave. A caucus involves gathering in a room, grouping yourselves by preferred candidate and then trying to woo people backing other candidates to your side. It's a much longer process.)

While Perez's comments mark the most public acknowledgment of the likely death of caucuses in picking future Democratic presidential nominees, the writing has been on the wall since early February. February 3, to be exact.

I have seen the DNC in action. In 2008 Texas used the Texas two step where a portion of the delegates were selected in the primary and a portion selected in caucuses. The Obama campaign lost the primary but got more delegates in Texas due to the caucus portion. The DNC abolished the Texas two step for the 2016 cycle.

Again you are wrong and it is fairly common knowledge that caucuses will be gone for 2024. I have met Joe twice and expect Joe to run in 2014 and so all of this meaningless just like it was in 2012.

[brooklynite]

11. The Government of Iowa holds a Primary forHouse and Senate races.

They DO not and WILL not add a Presidential Primary for the Democrats. It doesn’t matter what the DNC wants to do. They cannot force the State to add a Presidrntial Primary.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

14. You are wrong yet again

The state sets the date of the primary but the party gets to decide which races are on the ballot and qualification for the candidates on the ballot. Iowa is doing caucuses to be first in the nation but the party is free to have delegates selected on the primary. In 2020, that primary was June 7.

I have read the DNC rules and my state and several other states rules. If you want to have fun, volunteer for the Rules Committee where the rules are discussed in detail. A four to five hour meeting or zoom call with 40 or so lawyers is a great deal of fun.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

16. Democrats edge toward dumping Iowa's caucuses as the first presidential vote

These caucuses are unrepresentative an exclude people. I ended up running my local caucus in the 2008 caucus portion of the Texas two step. Hillary won the primary but President Obama ended up with more Texas delegates due to the caucus portion. Most caucus goers were at my caucus 6 PM until 9 PM and I did not go home until after 11 PM. Most people cannot take off that much time to participate in a caucus

Link to tweet

The caucuses’ reputation has been damaged by high barriers to participation, a dearth of racial diversity, the rightward drift in the state’s electorate and a leftward drift in the Democratic participants. The state party’s inability to count the results in 2020 only deepened dismay in the party....

“It is not suited to normal people, people that actually have daily lives,” South Carolina State Sen. Dick Harpootlian, a former chairman of that state’s Democratic Party and a longtime Biden ally, said of the caucuses. He described the laborious process of participating, over multiple hours, in person, on a weeknight, as far more restrictive than the requirements of a new voter law in Texas that Democrats universally oppose.,,,,

Leaders in Nevada, with the support of former Senate majority leader Harry M. Reid (D), recently changed state law to transition from a caucus to a primary and schedule the date on the first Tuesday in February in a bid to increase the state’s importance. Rep. James E. Clyburn (D-S.C.), a longtime Biden ally, has like Reid been critical of the demographics of New Hampshire and Iowa. Ninety-one percent of Democratic caucus goers in Iowa were White in 2020, according to entry polls.

Among the possible solutions is a party ban on allowing convention delegates to be nominated in any early caucuses in the 2024 cycle. Perez has advocated allowing multiple states, possibly including South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire, to vote on the same day, forcing campaigns to split their early campaign resources more broadly in the early parts of their campaign.

I have a feeling that Harry Reid, Jim Clyburn and Jamie Harrison will end up winning this issue