I'm calling it... if GOP takes the House in '22, it's Speaker Trump.

[WarGamer]

Let's frame my prediction.

PredictIt is running .73 GOP... with redistricting, gerrymandering and voting restrictions I think any sane person would agree the chances of the GOP winning the House are quite real.

Now let's take a look at the GOP.

The people who run the Party don't want Trump to run. A lot of DC GOP'ers don't want Trump to run. He's an embarrassment and simply look to the Kristols, Wilsons and Wills for evidence that Republicans who previously ran the GOP don't want anything to do with Trump.

But to exclude Trump from the Party, to attack him or even frown at him will turn off ~75% of GOP voters. So... the GOP will NEVER do anything to damage Trump.


Now let's look at Trump.

So if Trump were to run in 2024, even if the economy is in a recession and gasoline is $10/gal and a Big Mac costs $20 he will still struggle in a race with Biden or Harris. He would trail a "conventional Republican" by 5% easy.

Trump doesn't want to lose.

Trump doesn't want to walk away either. He thrives on the adoration. Look at his history. He was never accepted by NYC "society", people always rolled their eyes at him. In politics he found 70+ million fans.



This is where the sides come together. There will be a deal between the GOP and Trump.

Trump agrees not to run in '24 and throw full 100% support behind a Noem or Hawley or Cotton in exchange for being named Speaker of the House and being able to run an Impeachment of Biden and tear up a speech over Joe's shoulder at the SOTU in 2023.

Yes, it's petty and pathetic but that's who Trump is.

That way the GOP is done with him at the Presidential level, Trump gets to say he's too busy to run for POTUS because he's busy "Making America Great Again" in the House...

It's so obvious I'm surprised all aren't predicting it.


Oh and not that anyone here needs to be reminded... but GOTFV.

[leftieNanner]

1. Kevin's not gonna like it!

He can't be House Majority leader if he's not an elected member of the House, but technically they can make him Speaker (which is what I think you meant).

Either Kevin or Dumpy would be a disaster.

[Vinca]

2. I don't know. The orange wannabe king wouldn't want to associate himself with anything even

remotely resembling a job that actually required his presence from somewhere other than a golf course. Plus, it would cramp his style when it comes to traversing the country being adorated by the drooling masses. Dumb-as-a-stump McCarthy should be reason enough to go to the polls in 2022.

[FalloutShelter]

3. Never happen.

Too much of a job. Not the same grift. No rallies.

[PortTack]

4. This

[Tomconroy]

5. I don't think TFG would have the personal discipline

to do that kind of job.

[AnnaLee]

6. What about Pence and the Senate if they win the majority.

Maybe off topic but popped in my mind while reading this thread: If the Republican's in the Senate refuse to recognize Biden and Harris as legitimate winners of the 2020 election, will they try to bring Pence in to preside over the Senate to break ties?

[Mr.Bill]

16. That won't fly.

Kamala Harris is the VP. Period. You can be Speaker of the House without being a Congressional rep., but you have to be VP to preside over the Senate. Mike Pence is a private citizen.

Oh, and an idiot.

[RANDYWILDMAN]

7. Won't Happen Literally too much work for the man...

he only wants easy stuff to do . like rallies and grifting and stuff.

[secondwind]

8. He'll be indicted by then.................... no worries

[WarGamer]

9. Don't hold your breath.

And would an indictment make any difference? You know the old line about the Ham sandwich...

[brooklynite]

10. No, he'll never be Speaker.

He doesn’t WANT to be Speaker. He’d still be below Biden and Shumer. And no, the Republicans are not going to Impeach Biden and Harris and have Trump step in as third in line.

[WarGamer]

11. Why would they try to impeach and remove? Trump just wants to hang an "I" on Biden...

It's a revenge thing. And he gets to clown around at SOTU and fuctions on the floor... he can do it for a few months, through the SOTU, impeachment vote and then resign.

[Retired Engineer Bob]

12. I see it a bit differently

Republicans win a narrow victory in the House in ‘22. Trump does not run for Congress, but is selected as Speaker. Nothing says the Speaker must be a member. Trump takes the position a ceremonial role, all work as Speaker is passed off to the underlings.

Trump is now third in line for the Presidency. The right arranges a fatal “accident” that removes Biden and Harris. Viola, Trump is sworn in. The nation dissolves into chaos and violence, allowing Trump to declare martial law. Welcome to Trumplandia.

I read a lot of bad science fiction, so take the thesis with a grain of salt.

[Kingofalldems]

13. Too bad the unrec button is no longer here.

[kairos12]

14. Never happen. The job requires actual work.

[roamer65]

15. Blue state secession is looking better and better by the day.

If the Repukes steal Congress next year, there WILL be blue state secessionist movements born from it.

[former9thward]

17. I am not opposed to either blue state or red state secession.

The idea that thinking adults in 2021 should be bound by something written by people 230 years ago is ridiculous. We are NOT a united people and no politician is going to make it so.

[roamer65]

18. Sadly, yes.

2022 and 2024 will be the elections that determine whether or not this republic continues.

[rockfordfile]

20. That sounds like Russian right-wing propaganda.

Tea-baggers were doing that in 2013.

[roamer65]

21. It's called the reality of 41 years of division politics.

Just wait until the SCOTUS strikes down Roe v Wade.

It’s coming and the polarization will get far worse.

The divisions were already there. Dump and minions have driven wedges into them.

We should have listened to President Carter.

[Raven123]

19. If saying that motivates Dems to vote, it is fine with me.