538's average now shows VA governor race tied

[Amishman]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/virginia/

So 10 months after Jan 6, a state whose politics are controlled by the DC suburbs could very well elect a Trumpkin governor. A state that was blue by +10 a year ago. What the heck is wrong with this picture???

[FBaggins]

1. VA's gubernatorial cycle causes all kinds of mischief

This isn’t uncommon for the commonwealth at all. Their one-term limit means that there’s never an incumbency advantage and they’re always one year after the presidential race - when new presidents are frequently crashing in popularity.

It’s a recipe for disaster that has very often resulted in the president’s party losing VA.

But McAuliffe has beaten that trend before.

[onenote]

4. McAuliffe's 2013 win was very narrow

He defeated a loony right winger (Ken Cuccinelli) but still only got around 49% of the vote. The presence on the ballot of a Libertarian candidate who got 6% of the vote may have made the difference.

I’m not saying this to spread doom and gloom. I’ll be working at the polls for Terry on Tuesday. But a lot of DUers don’t know the history and are unrealistically assuming Terry will win by a large margin. It’s going to be close

[FBaggins]

5. Agreed on all points

My feelings on the race would certainly attract "your concern is noted" replies here. So I won't go further.

What I'm hearing is that it could be a very late night. With Fairfax shifting to late reporting, some are expecting to be behind on election day until late in the evening - with Fairfax either getting us across the line or not.

[rampartc]

2. the failed ceo of "the carlyle group" seems to be s trump style "man of the people."

welcome back to the culture war, virginia. the only way to get "critical race theory" out of the classroom and transgenders out of the bathroom is to elect kleptocratic covid denying racists.

[gab13by13]

3. Fuck 538, I trust no polls.

All I have seen here about the Virginia election is bad news. I can only imagine what is being written and said outside of DU.

One thing though, the narrative is consistent. I only watch 3 people on cable news but I know from watching it before that when I flip channels I see the same narrative being said almost verbatim by all the networks.

[Greybnk48]

7. I agree. When and why have we started trusting the veracity of polls?

They've not been accurate for years (I would imagine that's by design).

[greenjar_01]

6. Yes, we live in a divided country

Where's the surprise?