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Celerity

(42,647 posts)
Fri Oct 29, 2021, 10:20 PM Oct 2021

Polling in America Is Still Broken. So Who Is Really Winning in Virginia?

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/10/polling-is-still-broken-so-whos-winning-in-virginia.html



Less than a week before Virginians pick their next governor, there is a sense of frenzied uncertainty hanging over the race. That much isn’t surprising — the polling between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin is extremely tight. What many anxious voters may not appreciate, though, is that, given the state of the polling industry, there’s a good argument to be made that the freak-out should actually be much worse.

Pollsters are nearly a year into battling the four-alarm fire set by their general-election disaster in 2020 — the biggest national-level polling miss in nearly half a century. One year ago, Democrats rolled into Election Day confident that they would see a relatively easy Joe Biden victory — remember the closing-stretch Quinnipiac poll showing him up five in Florida and the CNN-SSRS survey with a margin of six in North Carolina, or the Morning Consult poll with Biden up nine in Pennsylvania? And, of course, there was the USC projection of a 12-point national gap. Trump, of course, won Florida and North Carolina and came perilously close in the Keystone State, with the margin there figuring prominently in his postelection lies about a rigged vote. To simplify a bit: Across the country, pollsters seemed to systematically undercount GOP support, despite the fact that they were trying very hard, after some issues in 2016, not to do that.

But with the political world entirely focused on Virginia, looking to glean lessons about the state of the national parties, the fate of Biden’s agenda, and Americans’ hope for the future, the pollsters — the people who give us a sense of what to expect in elections — are offering a new round of projections without ever having quite figured out what went wrong last year. That means there’s no comfort to be found in the latest numbers — for hopeful Republicans, certainly, but especially for Democrats desperate to keep Richmond blue and get reassurance about Biden’s governing ambitions.

The industry set out to resolve all the ugly questions around the disaster of 2020 in the standard manner: with a big autopsy. In July, the American Association for Public Opinion Research released its eagerly awaited (in the biz) report with the cooperation of a range of political and academic researchers. It first concluded that that year’s national-level polling error — 4.5 percentage points, on average — was the highest it could find in four decades, and that the state-level surveys were as far off — 5.1 points — as they had been since the group started tracking that data in 2000. (So, yes, it really was as bad as it seemed on Election Night.) And 2020’s mistakes were different from 2016’s, it continued: Then, pollsters had undervalued education levels in weighing their research, which led to underestimating Trump’s support. Now, though, something bigger and scarier had happened. They just still couldn’t conclude what, exactly, that was.

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Polling in America Is Still Broken. So Who Is Really Winning in Virginia? (Original Post) Celerity Oct 2021 OP
Assume we are Karma13612 Oct 2021 #1
Gonna be a while.. Deuxcents Oct 2021 #2
I think you have more people qazplm135 Oct 2021 #3
I think that may be a possibility, however, I suspect a bigger problem involves people not answering JohnSJ Oct 2021 #5
Count me in that group. brer cat Oct 2021 #7
Me too JohnSJ Oct 2021 #8
But qazplm135 Oct 2021 #15
I would suspect those answering calls from unknown numbers would be an older demographic JohnSJ Oct 2021 #19
I don't know qazplm135 Oct 2021 #20
I'm with you. Unless we recognize the number, we don't answer. If it's someone who really wants to shrike3 Oct 2021 #16
That's me. triron Oct 2021 #18
When more people vote, gab13by13 Oct 2021 #4
If McAuliffe pulls it out, it will be because of the early voting (going on for 6 weeks now) Celerity Oct 2021 #10
And all of the news networks have a vested interest Mr.Bill Oct 2021 #6
Yup!! Gotta have that horse race! PortTack Oct 2021 #9
I think the puke's gonna win Polybius Oct 2021 #11
kick Demovictory9 Oct 2021 #12
WE ARE. Demsrule86 Oct 2021 #13
We'll find out after Tuesday. MineralMan Oct 2021 #14
Voting is broken, pollsters refuse to prolly factor in GQP democracy denial uponit7771 Oct 2021 #17

JohnSJ

(91,947 posts)
5. I think that may be a possibility, however, I suspect a bigger problem involves people not answering
Fri Oct 29, 2021, 10:56 PM
Oct 2021

calls from numbers they don’t recognize, so the polls reflect only those callers who are willing to answer calls from unknown numbers, and doesn’t include those who don’t answer calls from unknown numbers

I don’t know how significant that is, but with all the spam and spoofing calls going on, I think it is material factor that needs to be factored in




brer cat

(24,401 posts)
7. Count me in that group.
Fri Oct 29, 2021, 11:17 PM
Oct 2021

I was often called for poll prior to elections, but we stopped answering calls from unknown numbers and I haven't been polled for the past few years. We are hardly unique in that regard.

qazplm135

(7,447 posts)
15. But
Sat Oct 30, 2021, 02:36 PM
Oct 2021

I don't see a reason why those answering would skew one way or the other.

I have call screening for any unknown numbers.

shrike3

(3,267 posts)
16. I'm with you. Unless we recognize the number, we don't answer. If it's someone who really wants to
Sat Oct 30, 2021, 02:38 PM
Oct 2021

reach us, they leave a voicemail.

Celerity

(42,647 posts)
10. If McAuliffe pulls it out, it will be because of the early voting (going on for 6 weeks now)
Fri Oct 29, 2021, 11:29 PM
Oct 2021

If the only time to vote (other than real, legit absentees) was on this coming Tuesday, he would get beaten badly I fear.

Of course no one has a crystal ball, but the Youngkin campaign and rallies are across the board are very upbeat, a lot of attendance, and all are energised. McAuliffe's campaign is tense and nervous, the rallies have been flat, and have not the best attendance. Youngkin has localised the campaign, McAuliffe has nationalised it. This is all per multiple local experts.

I do not myself have enough of true feeling to call it, but I am in no way 💯% confident we win. I so hope we pull it out and actually significantly exceed expectations.

Virginia and Colorado going consistently blew the last decade plus or so have been two huge positive paradigm shifts for us. We cannot start to backtrack.

My main targets to perma blue are GA, AZ, PA, and NC.

I am very pessimistic about FL, and all the Midwest, save for IL, MI, and (this state really worries me) MN. IA is now basically gone, same as IN and MO turned ages ago. WI is getting there, and then MN looms. I do not count PA as pure Midwest. It's a hybrid, like MD.

TX is still fantasyland. So many do no not understand the change taking place in the Latinx community (and not just in Texas at all) with fundie born again churches exploding inside them, and pumping out newly minted RWers. I fear a larger and larger chunk will vote Rethug.

Mr.Bill

(24,103 posts)
6. And all of the news networks have a vested interest
Fri Oct 29, 2021, 11:08 PM
Oct 2021

in making us think the race is close because that boosts ratings.

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