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Mon Nov 1, 2021, 06:34 PM

BTRTN Election Prediction: When a Split Verdict in VA and NJ (Bad Enough) is Really a Double Loss

"This is an “off off year” election, meaning, as in all odd-numbered years, there are no congressional elections (apart, perhaps, from special elections caused by death or resignation) and no presidential election. But there are gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey that are critical on many levels.

There has been a decade-plus-long trend toward the nationalization of local elections, amply evidenced by the decline of “ticket splitting,” that is, voting for different parties in different races in the same election cycle. That means that off-cycle elections such as these two can serve as barometers of national trends. And certainly these two elections will serve as a referendum on Joe Biden’s brief presidency, no matter how hard the Democrats try to lash their Republican challengers to Donald Trump.

As such, political observers will be watching two sets of numbers – not only who wins, but also how the margin compares to Biden’s margin of victory in the two states in last year’s election. The expected decline will give a rough gauge of how far the country has shifted from blue to red, given Biden’s well-documented troubles.
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Read on....
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/11/btrtn-election-prediction-when-split.html

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Reply BTRTN Election Prediction: When a Split Verdict in VA and NJ (Bad Enough) is Really a Double Loss (Original post)
tgards79 Nov 2021 OP
dsc Nov 2021 #1
tgards79 Nov 2021 #2
tgards79 Nov 2021 #3

Response to tgards79 (Original post)

Mon Nov 1, 2021, 07:04 PM

1. So I decided to take a look

In VA Hillary won by 5, and Northam by 9. In NJ, Hillary won by 14, Murphy by 14. Now I don't recall hearing about how that change in VA was Trump's fault or his death knell. By this standard a VA win by 4 and a NJ win by 16 would equal Trump's performance.

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Response to dsc (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 1, 2021, 07:39 PM

2. Of course it was

All throughout 2017-2019 there were special elections and off year elections where the Democrats did MUCH better than expected, running ahead of Hillary. Conor Lamb, does that name ring a bell? I could go back and prove it to you, but that was a clear trend, and it was an indictment of Trump who did, after all, lose the House, Senate and White House.

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Response to tgards79 (Original post)

Tue Nov 2, 2021, 07:36 AM

3. kick

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