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DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » There is no way we are lo...

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 08:54 AM

Star Member Tickle (1,593 posts)

There is no way we are losing the senate


There are five republicans not running and only one Democrat
We are not going to lose the senate


Retiring from public office, 2022
Name Party State Date announced
Richard Burr Republican Party Republican North Carolina July 20, 2016[1]
Pat Toomey Republican Party Republican Pennsylvania Oct. 5, 2020[2]
Rob Portman Republican Party Republican Ohio Jan. 25, 2021[3]
Richard Shelby Republican Party Republican Alabama Feb. 8, 2021[4]
Roy Blunt Republican Party Republican Missouri March 8, 2021[5]
Patrick Leahy Democratic Party Democratic Vermont November 15, 2021[6]


Congress may be a challenge but we could still keep it. I'm up for the challenge


Thirty representatives are not seeking re-election to their U.S. House seats (not including those who left office early):

Democratic Party 20 Democrats
Republican Party 12 Republicans

Incumbents retiring from public office
Democratic Party 12 Democrats
Republican Party 5 Republicans

Retiring from public office, 2022
Name Party State Date announced
Alan Lowenthal Democratic Party Democrat California December 16, 2021[7]
Devin Nunes Republican Party Republican California December 6, 2021[8]
Peter DeFazio Democratic Party Democrat Oregon December 1, 2021[9]
G.K. Butterfield Democratic Party Democrat North Carolina November 19, 2021[10]
Jackie Speier Democratic Party Democrat California November 16, 2021[11]
Adam Kinzinger Republican Party Republican Illinois October 29, 2021[12]
Michael Doyle Democratic Party Democratic Pennsylvania October 18, 2021[13]
David Price Democratic Party Democratic North Carolina October 18, 2021[14]
John Yarmuth Democratic Party Democratic Kentucky October 12, 2021[15]
Anthony Gonzalez Republican Party Republican Ohio September 16, 2021[16]
Ron Kind Democratic Party Democratic Wisconsin August 10, 2021[17]
Cheri Bustos Democratic Party Democratic Illinois April 30, 2021[18]
Kevin Brady Republican Party Republican Texas April 14, 2021[19]
Filemon Vela Democratic Party Democratic Texas March 22, 2021[20]
Tom Reed Republican Party Republican New York March 21, 2021[21]
Ann Kirkpatrick Democratic Party Democratic Arizona March 12, 2021[22]
Eddie Bernice Johnson Democratic Party Democratic Texas October 9, 2019[23]

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Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 22 replies Author Time Post
Reply There is no way we are losing the senate (Original post)
 Tickle Dec 2021 OP
LineReply There was also no way we were going to lose Congress in 2010
 calguy Dec 2021 #1
LineLineReply plenty were saying there was no way we were losing VA last year too
 Amishman Dec 2021 #3
LineLineReply Yep, 1994, 2006, 2010, 2018
 madville Dec 2021 #4
LineLineReply ? There was great worry, even expectation, that
 Hortensis Dec 2021 #8
LineLineReply and also in 2002
 samsingh Dec 2021 #9
LineLineNew Reply IF 'they' let black folks vote
 JustAnotherGen Dec 2021 #15
LineLineNew Reply Were you politically aware back then?
 W_HAMILTON Dec 2021 #20
LineReply AZ, GA, and NV
 madville Dec 2021 #2
LineLineReply 'inflation, grocery and gas prices'
 Septua Dec 2021 #7
LineReply Hard Math.
 brooklynite Dec 2021 #5
LineLineReply Fetterman hasn't won the Dem nomination yet
 FakeNoose Dec 2021 #12
LineLineLineNew Reply Lamb has yet to set foot anywhere near where the most Democrats live
 BumRushDaShow Dec 2021 #17
LineReply absolutely useless post. history no longer applies.
 mopinko Dec 2021 #6
LineLineReply "IF Jan 6 catches up"
 Septua Dec 2021 #10
LineReply This will a tough election cycle for Republicans. We knew this for a while.
 Norbert Dec 2021 #11
LineNew Reply far too hubristic given the map and overall situation atm
 Celerity Dec 2021 #13
LineNew Reply FTP and John Lewis VRA
 JustAnotherGen Dec 2021 #14
LineNew Reply Did Anyone Think There Was A Chance TFG Would Get 48% Of The Vote In 2020?
 SoCalDavidS Dec 2021 #16
LineNew Reply we can easily lose enough seats to give them a supermajority.
 rampartc Dec 2021 #18
LineLineNew Reply Jesus
 Tickle Dec 2021 #19
LineNew Reply no way that Trump beats HRC, the most qualified Presidential candidate in the history of the USA
 WarGamer Dec 2021 #21
LineLineNew Reply true nt
 Tickle Dec 2021 #22

Response to Tickle (Original post)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 09:00 AM

Star Member calguy (3,918 posts)

1. There was also no way we were going to lose Congress in 2010

Yet we got our butts kicked and things will never be the same. Never say never in politics because anything can happen and usually does.

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Response to calguy (Reply #1)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 09:06 AM

Amishman (5,267 posts)

3. plenty were saying there was no way we were losing VA last year too

the electorate is poorly informed and fickle.

There is a lot of time left between now an the election, but currently we are not in good shape and the road ahead looks rocky and challenging.

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Response to calguy (Reply #1)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 09:09 AM

madville (7,029 posts)

4. Yep, 1994, 2006, 2010, 2018

All of the last four sitting Presidents losing Congress in a midterm in those years. The Republicans have been “finished” so many times now I can’t even count and people will still tell you there is no way they can ever return to power…….then they do (and will again).

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Response to calguy (Reply #1)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 09:18 AM

Star Member Hortensis (55,131 posts)

8. ? There was great worry, even expectation, that

Republicans would gain control of congress in 2010 -- the midterm elections following election of a Democratic president. This was also the period when the RW extremism threatening to destroy us spread from the rabid "base" to the mainstream.

People were still very unhappy and hurting badly from the Great recession and weren't crediting Democrats with saving the economy from collapse OR blaming Republicans for keeping wages and jobs down.

The RW reaction to finally realizing global warming and the demographic progression were real and inevitable, jet-fueled by election of a black president, had come to full boil.

The midterms followed the long and bloody battles to pass the ACA, which became a huge, toxic focus of factional opposition among both RWers and LW anti-Democratic groups.

True, we did hope passing the ACA wouldn't cost us anything near the disastrous loss of 63 house seats.

We'll see about the senate this time, understanding that the inmakes who took over the asylum in 2010 are now marching on Washington and all the state capitals. Every change generates more change, though, and these days we have nothing but.

I'm with Tickle. There are always more of us. We just need still more to become aware and alarmed.


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Response to calguy (Reply #1)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 09:28 AM

samsingh (17,275 posts)

9. and also in 2002

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Response to calguy (Reply #1)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 11:11 AM

Star Member JustAnotherGen (30,406 posts)

15. IF 'they' let black folks vote

We will show up.

There's a difference between all of the prior years and this year -


A black American population who sees the end of America post the Coup Attempt (not riots - a COUP).

We have a lot to lose - which is why at least out of the DU sphere - and in black social media groups, face to face conversations, local NAACP meetings -

We could give a shit about BBB.

It's all about Voting Rights.

Don't let them disenfranchise us and we can assure a Warnock win - and a Democratic Senator win in PA and Ohio.

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Response to calguy (Reply #1)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 12:46 PM

Star Member W_HAMILTON (6,495 posts)

20. Were you politically aware back then?

Because no one was saying that. There were videos of all the idiotic zombies yelling at our Democratic Representatives at townhalls over Obamacare (which really hadn't even been implemented at that point).

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Response to Tickle (Original post)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 09:05 AM

madville (7,029 posts)

2. AZ, GA, and NV

AZ, GA, and NV are all currently Democratic held Senate seats that are in toss-up range. It could be 53-47 either party in the majority or somewhere in between is my best guess.

We either barely hold the House or it’s a GOP route and they gain 30+ seats or somewhere in between.

Still too early to tell, it’s mostly going to hinge on inflation, grocery and gas prices, etc. If the Independent voters aren’t financially happy we are screwed, they always blame the party in power.

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Response to madville (Reply #2)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 09:15 AM

Septua (1,681 posts)

7. 'inflation, grocery and gas prices'

The 'instant gratification' factor...never mind the secondary issue of potential fascist take-over.

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Response to Tickle (Original post)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 09:10 AM

Star Member brooklynite (84,566 posts)

5. Hard Math.

We won’t win Missouri or Alabama.

North Carolina and Ohio are reaches at best.

Warnock (voter suppression) and Cortez-Masto (Party disorganization) are at risk.

Based on my meeting with him, we won’t win Pennsylvania with Fetterman.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #5)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 09:39 AM

Star Member FakeNoose (27,731 posts)

12. Fetterman hasn't won the Dem nomination yet

There's another Democratic candidate who could be (maybe) even better than Fetterman - Conor Lamb. Nothing is known until after the primary. Don't count out the Democrats - we'll have a strong candidate in PA no matter what.

Secondly, the 5 Repuke possibilities for the Senate seat (at least so far) look like a clown car.

Stay tuned, it's gonna be interesting!

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Response to FakeNoose (Reply #12)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 11:27 AM

Star Member BumRushDaShow (107,905 posts)

17. Lamb has yet to set foot anywhere near where the most Democrats live

which is here in SE PA. Even Tom Wolf, when he was first running and was a complete unknown over here made inroads introducing himself and touching base with a wide range of voters (including business types and old-school liberals, who took note of his Peace Corps street cred). Fetterman has literally done the outreach from the border with OH to that with NJ, and from the border with NY to that with MD, and also has liberal street cred having worked with AmeriCorps. Fetterman has also been a regular on M$M so he is "known" (particularly as a passionate firebrand).

What will make a difference is who emerges from the GOP clown car at the end of the primaries and whether they can appeal to any indies over here on this side of the state (who are already pissed off with the GOP shitshow after the 2020 election that continues with their attempting to do more faux (and ultimately illegal) "audits" ).

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Response to Tickle (Original post)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 09:12 AM

Star Member mopinko (66,079 posts)

6. absolutely useless post. history no longer applies.

IF jan 6 catches up to the thug party, legally, politically, culturally, it's the post watergate election.
if the thugs keep gettin away w rigging elections, there is no way to tell.

neither of those things have ever happened before. the past has nothing to tell us.

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Response to mopinko (Reply #6)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 09:33 AM

Septua (1,681 posts)

10. "IF Jan 6 catches up"

Maybe...there's that 60% who possibly believe Jan 6 was a necessary and acceptable event. Biden stole the election...they were merely trying to right an injustice. That same group believes the Committee investigation is a nothing more than political witch-hunt and won't believe the outcome or even give two sh!ts about the outcome.

And if you factor in voter suppression laws and GOP controlled elections, the Country is doomed. It's going to come down to the voting rights bill.

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Response to Tickle (Original post)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 09:34 AM

Norbert (5,519 posts)

11. This will a tough election cycle for Republicans. We knew this for a while.

The big question is, will 'retiring' GOP Reps be replaced by the QAnon crazies. I hope the J6 shit hits the fan by then to mitigate that.

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Response to Tickle (Original post)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 09:51 AM

Star Member Celerity (34,424 posts)

13. far too hubristic given the map and overall situation atm

We have more at risk Senate seats than you are claiming, plus you do not even deal with the very good chance that Manchinema block all the voter bills, which if that happens, will lead to viscous voter depression and cheating.

We have 4 Senate seats in serious play

NH (only real break so far, as Sununu surprisingly said no. He would have beaten Hasan fairly easily IMHO)
GA
AZ
NV

IF it is a red wave election, we may well lose all four seats

and

CO is not a 100% lock, but we should hold it.

Realistically we have 3 shots to flip a red to blue

PA (open)
NC (open)
WI

All the rest are fairly large stretches (OH) to real reaches (FL), to not happenings

No, Rand Paul is not going to lose. No, we are not winning Iowa or Missouri.

You are way out over your skis with the bombastic sureness of your claims IMHO, due to a multiplicity of potential and real barriers.

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Response to Tickle (Original post)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 11:09 AM

Star Member JustAnotherGen (30,406 posts)

14. FTP and John Lewis VRA

If those are NOT passed and IMMEDIATELY -

We can lose it all. If you really want to fire up the core base of the Party (black Americans) - get it done Joe.

We will show up and take the bastards down IF 'THEY' LET US VOTE.

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Response to Tickle (Original post)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 11:17 AM

SoCalDavidS (9,568 posts)

16. Did Anyone Think There Was A Chance TFG Would Get 48% Of The Vote In 2020?

I sure as hell didn't.

A few thousand votes switched in 3 states might have made the outcome completely different.

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Response to Tickle (Original post)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 11:38 AM

rampartc (4,763 posts)

18. we can easily lose enough seats to give them a supermajority.


trumpism is festering out here in the south. they maintain media supremacy and are controlling the culture wars. the courts are theirs.

they are incredibly close to a constitutional convention.

https://conventionofstates.com/states-that-have-passed-the-convention-of-states-article-v-application

if we do not deliver trump's head (and maybe if we do.) they have a potential to declare total victory.

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Response to rampartc (Reply #18)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 12:17 PM

Star Member Tickle (1,593 posts)

19. Jesus

I've never heard of this. I'll have to read more on a constitutional convention. Thank you for sharing this

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Response to Tickle (Original post)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 12:48 PM

WarGamer (7,863 posts)

21. no way that Trump beats HRC, the most qualified Presidential candidate in the history of the USA

Right?

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Response to WarGamer (Reply #21)

Fri Dec 17, 2021, 01:00 PM

Star Member Tickle (1,593 posts)

22. true nt

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