Retired general warns the U.S. military could lead a coup after the 2024 election

[Lasher]

As the anniversary of the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol approaches, three retired U.S. generals have warned that another insurrection could occur after the 2024 presidential election and the military could instigate it.

The generals – Paul Eaton, Antonio Taguba and Steven Anderson – made their case in a recent Washington Post Op-Ed. "In short: We are chilled to our bones at the thought of a coup succeeding next time," they wrote.

Paul Eaton, a retired U.S. Army major general and a senior adviser to VoteVets, spoke with NPR's Mary Louise Kelly earlier this week.

Below are the highlights of the conversation.

https://www.npr.org/2021/12/31/1068930675/us-election-coup-january-6-military-constitution

So many people don't yet realize how close we came on January 6th. Others don't care. How I miss my naive younger days when I thought we all supported the basic principle of majority rule.

[LiberalFighter]

1. Who would instigate it? Generals? Renegade troops?

Are there explicit penalties for being involved in an attempted coup? Are military prosecutors independent of generals? Are there standards for military prosecutors that are high enough so someone like Graham Lindsay is not qualified to serve?

[Irish_Dem]

15. The author is saying could be rank and file and higher up.

[twodogsbarking]

2. I fear the military.

Some have said that is ridiculous.

[Alexander Of Assyria]

9. Right now it is ridiculous, but ever flip of democracy to not democracy needs military support.

Trump knew this…. tried it and failed.

[twodogsbarking]

19. I already stated some think it is ridiculous.

You are some.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

21. And I still say that's ridiculous. nt

[twodogsbarking]

31. I can see that.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

39. Hey, we all have our difference of opinions,

that's what separates us from the repubs.

Happy New Year to you and your family.

[NurseJackie]

44. And you'd STILL be correct. It's just absurd.

[NurseJackie]

43. It is.

[teach1st]

3. Washington Post article link (no paywall

https://wapo.st/3zgiqTf

One of our military’s strengths is that it draws from our diverse population. It is a collection of individuals, all with different beliefs and backgrounds. But without constant maintenance, the potential for a military breakdown mirroring societal or political breakdown is very real.

The signs of potential turmoil in our armed forces are there. On Jan. 6, a disturbing number of veterans and active-duty members of the military took part in the attack on the Capitol. More than 1 in 10 of those charged in the attacks had a service record. A group of 124 retired military officials, under the name “Flag Officers 4 America,” released a letter echoing Donald Trump’s false attacks on the legitimacy of our elections.

Recently, and perhaps more worrying, Brig. Gen. Thomas Mancino, the commanding general of the Oklahoma National Guard, refused an order from President Biden mandating that all National Guard members be vaccinated against the coronavirus. Mancino claimed that while the Oklahoma Guard is not federally mobilized, his commander in chief is the Republican governor of the state, not the president.

The potential for a total breakdown of the chain of command along partisan lines — from the top of the chain to squad level — is significant should another insurrection occur. The idea of rogue units organizing among themselves to support the “rightful” commander in chief cannot be dismissed.

[mahina]

6. It's bugged me that the military confidently assume

Everyone in it is a Republican. Wasn’t always so but now people get all kinds of hassles for being a Dem. It’s wrong and un American.

[tavernier]

4. Can the President fire a general?

Or send him off to some far away destination to herd penguins?

[Ligyron]

7. Sure, Obama fired McChrystal

[Alexander Of Assyria]

10. tRump fired anyone he pleased, legal or not and by the time the courts sort it out what does

it matters.

Democracy needs trust and respect and adherence to unwritten tradition, fascists have no respect, only tradition is white supremacy.,

The enemy are fascists? What more does anyone need to know to know how to respond?

[Irish_Dem]

14. Lincoln fired McClellan. Truman fired MacArthur. Obama fired McChrystal.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

53. Penguins, probably.

The Air Force has Thule AFB. The Army? Maybe Fort Polk, Louisiana. Navy, dunno. Would Diego Garcia qualify?

Space Force? That's probably its own gulag.

[WHITT]

5. ...

How I miss my naive younger days when I thought we all supported the basic principle of majority rule.

Gore winning the 2000 election by more than a half a million votes, and Clinton winning the 2016 election by almost three million votes, should have been the first clues.

[Whatthe_Firetruck]

42. That assumes one believes...

...that others are equally deserving of being the current majority. They don't. To them, only their side deserves to rule. So they feel perfectly justified in twisting the levers of power in their favor.

[gab13by13]

8. They won't need the military,

the Supreme Court will once again install the president. I bet justice Alito will drool from now until 2024.

[Alexander Of Assyria]

11. Nope. The safeguards and rail guards of democracy are battered, but repairable, lots of time.

[gab13by13]

13. If Democrats fail to pass legislation,

which closes loopholes in the Electoral College language, Republican controlled states can send their electors to the convention even if a Democrat won the popular vote. Once at the convention where there will be 2 sets of electors from one state the decision what to do goes to whoever controls the House. Democrats will appeal to the SC where it will rule that states have absolute authority to run their elections.

What your post says is very dangerous because Senate Democrats have very little time to make this happen.

[Alexander Of Assyria]

28. The chronology up to the Supreme Court may be correct, but disagree the highest court,

or vast majority of the lower federal courts, would go that far.

Evidence free fascists already got trounced once, once, as memory serves…70 to 1 in the 2020 Judicial Bowl….and the 1 was a missed call.

[Mr.Bill]

48. They didn't help Trump this last time. n/t

[yaesu]

12. We were warned way back in 1964 by the movie Seven Days in May, great time for a rewatch. nt

[Irish_Dem]

16. We already have at least one retired general leading a coup: Mike Flynn.

[bluestarone]

20. Yea and what bothers me is

HE'S STILL THERE!

[Irish_Dem]

32. Yep, still trying to overthrow the US government.

[GoCubsGo]

29. Even worse, his brother is still in the ranks, and very high in them.

He is the commanding general of United States Army Pacific. He was in on it, too, and needs to be court-martialed, as does his big brother (via being recalled from retirement by the President.)

[Irish_Dem]

35. Yes, brother is high ranking active duty who lied to congress

and took part in the military response to the coup. At first the Army vehemently denied his involvement, but then had to start telling the truth when facts came out.

Charles Flynn is a three star general and now Commanding General of the US Army Pacific, stationed in Hawaii.

For some reason the Army did not force this guy to retire, but did get him far away from Washington.

[PufPuf23]

54. I suspect Charles Flynn was sent to the Pacific to get him

as far away from DC as possible to provide him shade from January 6 involvement.

I do not like nor find this idea comforting at all.

[Irish_Dem]

55. Exactly. The military has a way of sending you to far flung

spots if you have screwed up.

They don't want him any where near Wash DC.

But they didn't want him to retire and be in the same position as his brother.

[COL Mustard]

64. Hawaii? Hardly an isolation assignment.

And his assignment was announced in 2020.

[Escurumbele]

17. I have been saying that for a long time, the military is a totalitarian regime by nature

The danger is that all dictatorships succeed because the military easily aligns to the regime, they benefit from the totalitarian regime, and the signs I have been seeing for a while point to the military becoming complicit with republicans to implement a totalitarian regime in the USA.

Look at Venezuela, the regime is successful because the military has aligned to them, with a patriotic military a totalitarian regime would never succeed. Has anyone asked the question of why hasn't the military recalled Michael Flynn? Their duty is to recall a traitor, why have they not done it? I understand his brother is brass in the military. but that should not be a pretext, treason must be punished, no matter who the traitor is.

Those generals are correct, the USA is on the edge and if the military aligns with the GOP that is it, that is the end of Democracy in the USA.

I don't buy the following statement in the article:
"I believe that we need to wargame the possibility of a problem and what we are going to do. The fact that we were caught completely unprepared – militarily, and from a policing function – on January 6, is incomprehensible to me."

I believe there was coordination between the military and the GOP, a minimum would be that orders were made to not act, and they obeyed those orders, which makes them complicit.

[Jedi Guy]

24. How could the military have acted on January 6th, though?

Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 means the military can't be used as domestic law enforcement. The only way they could have gotten involved as far as I know is via the Insurrection Act of 1807, which can only be invoked by the President. Why would he invoke the act and bring the military down on his own supporters?

Until the President does so, the military's hands are tied. The National Guard could and should have been involved, but that's not the same as the military stepping in.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

52. +100. nt

[Jon King]

18. The military would split, too much diversity.

It would end in civil war because our military is diverse, unlike China, etc. 80 million voters who had their votes stolen would not sit by and let the Repugs install a dictator.

And Biden would not leave office like Gore decided to do in this scenario. If they truly overturn the electors slate, Biden will not stop down, he would stay and lead whatever forces he could.

[Chainfire]

23. The entire military does not call the shots.

From the perspective of a veteran, I can tell you that If your Captain tells you to guard the White House, most will guard the White House. Soldiers are trained to not to ask why. Disobeying orders in times of crisis can get a soldier killed... If the top leadership led a coup, the troops, for the most part, would follow with flag in hand; it is what they do.

Who would have believed, 20 years ago, that people would be having such a conversation? Who would have believed that an MTG could have a national soapbox to stand on to spew hate and division and suggest, from a position of authority, that half the country should be disenfranchised and suggesting a one party system?

Look back to the crowd that invaded the White House. There are people who would gladly massacre progressives if they could get away with it, and do it in the name of God and the flag. We may be nearer cattle cars and work camps than we think. Sometimes I think that we are much like the German Jews in the 30s, not imagining what the future may hold and in thinking that "this too shall pass." There is no evidence that it is "passing." The last election may well have been the final gasp of a failing Democracy.

Republicans have dragged us to the brink of Fascism and they are still pulling. Goring forward, elections may not matter at all. We are balanced on a razor's edge and could fall either way. We are one Reichstag Fire from the destruction of our Republic. There are people who are actively training to light that torch. There are millions of Americans who have stockpiled guns and ammo for the coming "revolution."

We better start pushing back before it is too damn late.

[Jedi Guy]

25. Are they not taught how to recognize and respond to illegal orders?

I never served but my dad was a career Air Force officer. I could swear I remember him telling me that servicemembers are trained/taught what constitutes a legal vs. illegal order and what to do if they're given an order they have reason to believe is illegal.

Of course, that safety feature might not engage if the people involved agree with the illegal order and elect to follow it on that basis...

[MarineCombatEngineer]

27. It's beaten into our heads from day one

that our Oath is to the Constitution, not to any individual, as the Mango Menace found out the hard way, and we were frequently reminded that it is our duty to refuse an illegal order, especially at the NCO and Officer's level.

[Jedi Guy]

36. That's what I thought, though again, I never served.

I suppose, then, that the danger is that individual servicemembers might go along with an illegal order, particularly if they agree with it, whereas large-scale insurrection among servicemembers is pretty unlikely. I'd like to think that most people in the military would think long and hard before going along with a coup, and even longer and harder before engaging in activity that'd harm fellow Americans.

But maybe I'm too optimistic, according to some. Thanks for your reply, MCE, I always enjoy seeing your posts. Happy New Year, and stay safe!

[MarineCombatEngineer]

37. Happy New Year to you and your family.

[Chainfire]

30. Of course new troops have an quick and basic introduction to the UCMJ

The main criteria that I remember from that is not the provision to ignore an unlawful order, (although it was taught) but the consequences for not following an order. It has been quite a long time since I was in boot camp, and what I remember is a recitation of all of the provisions of the UCMJ that could have you imprisoned or killed for disobeying orders. How likely is a recent high school graduate to challenge the orders of his superior officers on the basis of the UCMJ? I can tell you from experience, not very damn much, the risks are far too high and the reward is non-existent; it is the first thing you learn in basic training, sometimes the hard way.

Troops who do not follow orders, without question, are worthless to their commands and are rapidly purged from the ranks.

[Celerity]

45. You overestimate most Americans.

80 million voters who had their votes stolen would not sit by and let the Repugs install a dictator.

The vast majority will do just that, especially if the Supreme Court rules it all Constitutional. Biden will step aside peacefully at that point.

IF that scenario happens, bye bye US democracy. The Rethug POTUS (especially if it is Trump) will never stand down and allow a Dem POTUS to assume control of the executive branch in 2028, and the results of the election will be fixed so a Dem cannot claim victory anyway.

[twodogsbarking]

60. Seems like there is some concern about a corrupt military.

Probably just me. Everything will be fine.

[brooklynite]

22. From the interview: "I see it as LOW probability"

"I see it as low probability, high impact."

Military Coups work in countries with a high level of corruption in the officer corps and a low level of education in the enlisted ranks. Neither of those conditions exist in the US military. Add to which, the size and scale of the military make it next to impossible for an ambitious General to get enough troops to act.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

26. Thank You!!!!

I think that was proven on 1/6.

The Security Forces of each service branch would quickly put down any rogue officers/enlisted service member who attempted to foment a coup, I know this because I was once part of the Marine SecFor for 2 years and we took our duties very seriously.

[Chainfire]

34. The problem is who makes the decision of what is and what is not a legal order.

If a trooper refuses to carry out a lawful order he or she faces possible jail time, bad discharge, and fines. If they challenge the legality of the order, and are successful in their challenge, then they will be forever marked as a "trouble maker" and the consequences may be as bad, or worse, then jail. Troops know that the risk outweighs the benefits. It is a classic Catch-22.

I contend that most troops will follow orders, the law be damned. I hope that I don't have the chance, in the future, of saying, "I told you so."

[MarineCombatEngineer]

38. The interpretation would mainly fall to the Officer's and NCO's ranks,

and I highly doubt that most Officers or NCO's would follow an illegal order, that's just my experience from 35 years in the Corps, with the majority of it being an NCO.

And I can tell you that there are ways of disobeying an order without actually disobeying an order, ask me how I know this.

I'm with you, I hope I never see this happen in my lifetime, or any lifetime for that matter.

[Lasher]

41. I agree with Chainfire.

I was drafted in 1969, and some things have changed over time - like they always do. But I remember our instructions on disobeying unlawful orders. It was our duty to do so, but we'd better be ready to defend our position. I would have been highly reluctant as a lowly enlisted man to have taken that on myself.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

51. And that's why I said that it would likely fall to the NCO's and Officer's Corps,

and I'm confident that the vast majority would oppose a military coup and the few that did attempt to support a coup would quickly be hammered into the ground by the security forces.

Of course, we hope it never comes to that.

Happy New Year to you and your family.

[Lasher]

56. The same to you and yours

[Lasher]

33. But high impact, as you say.

Low probability does not mean impossibility. Surely after the events of January 6th you will admit a military coup could happen in the US.

[llashram]

40. I just hope

we, as Americans all, can consign trump, his hate for everyone to the garbage disposal of history. I know when Gen. Miley, no matter his belated apology, walked with trump on his church upside-down Bible photo op during demonstrations against hate, he sent a powerful message to the military. I STAND WITH trump.

Incontinent 45 and his family were in it for $$$. All other white nationalistic politics perpetuating racist/cultural hate among his base were a distraction to keep eyes off his usually blatant and open crimes. And yes fascists knew but didn't care. Especially those who got some of the spoils from the massive grift perpetrated by trump and his family during his 4-year crime spree.

Thank the fates we kept eyes where they should have been by the so-called free press and MSM. And I personally thank my god that President Biden is at the helm of our ship of state.

As a disabled vet trump's 4 years were a huge slap in the face to all who served and serve this country. Any vet still pining for the days of trump should be ashamed. They are not. But be ashamed nonetheless.

[The Wizard]

47. Roger that.

[The Wizard]

46. Conscripted soldiers

do not like being in uniform and are more likely to refuse orders to overthrow a duly elected government that they prefer to live under when returning home. Eugene McCarthy made this argument for the draft at the height of the Vietnam War he opposed.
Career soldiers are reliant on the military for just about everything and more inclined to listen to wrongful orders. They have no where else to go.

[Progressive Jones]

49. There has to be a certain number of "grunts", though, who are right wing trash.

Some fucking 3 Percenter types would gladly go along.

[VGNonly]

57. And Oath Keepers

I've come across a number of them, bat shit crazy.

[Progressive Jones]

61. Same shit, different packaging. nt

[Mr.Bill]

50. The biggest danger of a divided military

would be creating a situation that would make it a good time for an enemy to attack.

[CrackityJones75]

58. And possibly an enemy in on the plot.

[Mr.Bill]

59. Absolutely.

It's the kind of thing that can happen when you have a president who spends four years kissing the asses of every dictator on the planet.

[llashram]

62. like trump's puppet master

Putin for one

[CrackityJones75]

63. yup