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louis c

(8,652 posts)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:47 PM Oct 2012

Gallup's Own Polling Numbers Indicate an Obama Landslide, Not a Romney Lead

I remember every political pundit I listened to just 2 or 3 months ago, telling me that all we had to do was watch the President's approval numbers. If he was 50% or above, he couldn't be beaten.

Occasionally, as in 2004, the incumbent could be just slightly under 50% and still win (Bush at 49.7%).

Gallup's explanation in Jan. 2012
http://www.gallup.com/poll/152051/Obama-Faces-Challenging-Election-Climate.aspx

Today (10/24), Gallup has Romney with a 3 point lead nationwide with Likely Voters. Even accounting for the fact that Obama's approval numbers are with Registered Voters, his 53% to 42% approval-disapproval spread this late in the game is more suggestive of an Obama electoral vote landslide than a 3 point Romney lead.

I follow these numbers very closely. I remember what all the pundits say. These numbers, from the same pollster on the same day interviewing the same people, make no sense at all, even using the pollster's own reasoning.

Link;
http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

18 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Gallup's Own Polling Numbers Indicate an Obama Landslide, Not a Romney Lead (Original Post) louis c Oct 2012 OP
Gallup's polling is very confusing to Gallup. HubertHeaver Oct 2012 #1
This is why God gave us Nate Silver SleeplessinSoCal Oct 2012 #2
Yes- I refer to Nate Silver as my Xanax KaryninMiami Oct 2012 #3
It certainly is confusing to me louis c Oct 2012 #7
I stopped trying to figure Gallup out years ago. Third Doctor Oct 2012 #4
Watch Gallup and Rasmussen over the next ten days. Tutonic Oct 2012 #5
Rasmussen has topped Gallup louis c Oct 2012 #14
There is serious disconnect in those numbers. DCBob Oct 2012 #6
That's why I posted this louis c Oct 2012 #8
Agreed. Gallup should attempt to explain it.. DCBob Oct 2012 #9
Thanks for the response louis c Oct 2012 #10
Me neither. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #12
Gallup had extreme outlier polling couple days last week unc70 Oct 2012 #11
agreed, if Gallup is down to a three point spread, the last 2-3 days of polling must be good for us. Hamlette Oct 2012 #13
Today (10/25), will be an interesting watch of Gallup louis c Oct 2012 #15
How outsideworld Oct 2012 #16
Approval is all adults. Jennicut Oct 2012 #17
I'm convinced for the most part that all these polls are BS justiceischeap Oct 2012 #18

KaryninMiami

(3,073 posts)
3. Yes- I refer to Nate Silver as my Xanax
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:56 PM
Oct 2012

When I'm heading towards the ledge, Nate talks me down. Almost every time although there have been moments when even Nate has had me a bit jittery. Hopefully those days are over for this campaign...

Tutonic

(2,522 posts)
5. Watch Gallup and Rasmussen over the next ten days.
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:57 PM
Oct 2012

They'll start to correct their numbers so that on November 7th, they can boast to their FOX and Friends that they called it right all along. Also look for them to start selling snake oil around November 8th.

 

louis c

(8,652 posts)
14. Rasmussen has topped Gallup
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:39 AM
Oct 2012

Rasmussen is now Romney +4 and Gallup is Romney +3.

Yet Rasmussen still has Obama up in its own EV count.

Go Figure

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
6. There is serious disconnect in those numbers.
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:58 PM
Oct 2012

With Obama having that high an approval I dont see how on earth Romney still leads. It hard to believe such a large chunk of respondents would say they approve the Presidents performance but wont vote for him. I think Gallup's methodoligy is flawed.

 

louis c

(8,652 posts)
8. That's why I posted this
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:11 PM
Oct 2012

Why isn't this being talked about on any cable shows?

It is an interesting contradiction and it would be interesting to hear an explanation from Gallup.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
9. Agreed. Gallup should attempt to explain it..
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:14 PM
Oct 2012

because to most normal thinking people that makes zero sense.

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
12. Me neither.
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:26 AM
Oct 2012

IMHO, I've long suspected it's just to keep ad revenue going. Without a horse race....well, it's pretty obvious.

unc70

(6,095 posts)
11. Gallup had extreme outlier polling couple days last week
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:07 PM
Oct 2012

That was when they went suddenly from Obama +2 RV to Romney +2 RV, that on a 7 day rolling average. This means they had some incredibly unlikely polling outlier sample happening twice and on succesvide days, or as I suspect they somehow really screwed things up somehow.

Those strange polling samples are now aging out of the 7-day average and Obama surged to +1 RV. The gap for LV has now closed from -7 to -3, but should close another 2-3 assuming the 3-day job approval increase holds or advances.

We have been discussing this on DU ever since Gallup went weirder than usual, about 5 days ago. If this plays out as we believe likely over the next few days, I expect the MSM will be all over the place trying to explain Obama's "unexplained" surge.

Hamlette

(15,394 posts)
13. agreed, if Gallup is down to a three point spread, the last 2-3 days of polling must be good for us.
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:42 AM
Oct 2012

I wonder if they just had a terribly off couple of days.

Nate (he's my xanax too although the last couple of weeks I've been taking the real stuff too...whole 'nother story) said recently that Gallup is always off 2-3 weeks out from an election then come to the "real" numbers later.

 

louis c

(8,652 posts)
15. Today (10/25), will be an interesting watch of Gallup
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 06:22 AM
Oct 2012

The trend line is important here.

If Obama shows an even 1 point move and cuts to 2, that will be significant.

I've seen polling data that shows that the national numbers are being run up by huge Romney pluralities in the deep South, none of which are swing states.

As these national numbers move toward Obama, those voters are generally in the swing states that control the Electoral College.

Jennicut

(25,415 posts)
17. Approval is all adults.
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 07:19 AM
Oct 2012

I don't know why they don't do approval for LV's or RV's.
Gallup is confusing in general.

justiceischeap

(14,040 posts)
18. I'm convinced for the most part that all these polls are BS
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 07:25 AM
Oct 2012

I'm also convinced that people lie to on-phone pollsters. If I recall, exit polls and polls in general had Kerry trending toward a win... it was close but he was trending that way and he lost.

I'm not saying President Obama is going to lose, far from it, I think he's going to win. I've stated repeatedly, he has the hispanic vote, women's vote, millennial vote, african-american vote... I'm pretty sure minorities, women and the youngins combined with Democratic/Independent/Moderate males puts President Obama over the top no matter what the numbers show. And as the OP said, if his approval rating stays above 50% over the next 11 days, all these +Romney's will be for naught and show how bogus the polls really are.

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