General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsGallup's Own Polling Numbers Indicate an Obama Landslide, Not a Romney Lead
I remember every political pundit I listened to just 2 or 3 months ago, telling me that all we had to do was watch the President's approval numbers. If he was 50% or above, he couldn't be beaten.
Occasionally, as in 2004, the incumbent could be just slightly under 50% and still win (Bush at 49.7%).
Gallup's explanation in Jan. 2012
http://www.gallup.com/poll/152051/Obama-Faces-Challenging-Election-Climate.aspx
Today (10/24), Gallup has Romney with a 3 point lead nationwide with Likely Voters. Even accounting for the fact that Obama's approval numbers are with Registered Voters, his 53% to 42% approval-disapproval spread this late in the game is more suggestive of an Obama electoral vote landslide than a 3 point Romney lead.
I follow these numbers very closely. I remember what all the pundits say. These numbers, from the same pollster on the same day interviewing the same people, make no sense at all, even using the pollster's own reasoning.
Link;
http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx
HubertHeaver
(2,520 posts)SleeplessinSoCal
(8,998 posts)KaryninMiami
(3,073 posts)When I'm heading towards the ledge, Nate talks me down. Almost every time although there have been moments when even Nate has had me a bit jittery. Hopefully those days are over for this campaign...
louis c
(8,652 posts)Third Doctor
(1,574 posts)I just know now not to trust everything they release.
Tutonic
(2,522 posts)They'll start to correct their numbers so that on November 7th, they can boast to their FOX and Friends that they called it right all along. Also look for them to start selling snake oil around November 8th.
louis c
(8,652 posts)Rasmussen is now Romney +4 and Gallup is Romney +3.
Yet Rasmussen still has Obama up in its own EV count.
Go Figure
DCBob
(24,689 posts)With Obama having that high an approval I dont see how on earth Romney still leads. It hard to believe such a large chunk of respondents would say they approve the Presidents performance but wont vote for him. I think Gallup's methodoligy is flawed.
louis c
(8,652 posts)Why isn't this being talked about on any cable shows?
It is an interesting contradiction and it would be interesting to hear an explanation from Gallup.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)because to most normal thinking people that makes zero sense.
louis c
(8,652 posts)Last edited Thu Oct 25, 2012, 02:00 AM - Edit history (1)
AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)IMHO, I've long suspected it's just to keep ad revenue going. Without a horse race....well, it's pretty obvious.
unc70
(6,095 posts)That was when they went suddenly from Obama +2 RV to Romney +2 RV, that on a 7 day rolling average. This means they had some incredibly unlikely polling outlier sample happening twice and on succesvide days, or as I suspect they somehow really screwed things up somehow.
Those strange polling samples are now aging out of the 7-day average and Obama surged to +1 RV. The gap for LV has now closed from -7 to -3, but should close another 2-3 assuming the 3-day job approval increase holds or advances.
We have been discussing this on DU ever since Gallup went weirder than usual, about 5 days ago. If this plays out as we believe likely over the next few days, I expect the MSM will be all over the place trying to explain Obama's "unexplained" surge.
Hamlette
(15,394 posts)I wonder if they just had a terribly off couple of days.
Nate (he's my xanax too although the last couple of weeks I've been taking the real stuff too...whole 'nother story) said recently that Gallup is always off 2-3 weeks out from an election then come to the "real" numbers later.
louis c
(8,652 posts)The trend line is important here.
If Obama shows an even 1 point move and cuts to 2, that will be significant.
I've seen polling data that shows that the national numbers are being run up by huge Romney pluralities in the deep South, none of which are swing states.
As these national numbers move toward Obama, those voters are generally in the swing states that control the Electoral College.
outsideworld
(601 posts)On earth was bush at 49?
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)I don't know why they don't do approval for LV's or RV's.
Gallup is confusing in general.
justiceischeap
(14,040 posts)I'm also convinced that people lie to on-phone pollsters. If I recall, exit polls and polls in general had Kerry trending toward a win... it was close but he was trending that way and he lost.
I'm not saying President Obama is going to lose, far from it, I think he's going to win. I've stated repeatedly, he has the hispanic vote, women's vote, millennial vote, african-american vote... I'm pretty sure minorities, women and the youngins combined with Democratic/Independent/Moderate males puts President Obama over the top no matter what the numbers show. And as the OP said, if his approval rating stays above 50% over the next 11 days, all these +Romney's will be for naught and show how bogus the polls really are.