The Worst of the Omicron Wave Could Still Be Coming

[NickB79]

https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/621257/

A long descent from a peak in cases could exact a larger toll than even Omicron’s blistering ascent.

Good read. It could be a long winter and spring.

[Phoenix61]

1. Heavy on opinion and light on facts. nt

[Tomconroy]

3. Yes, the article is all opinion. Far more likely we will follow the

SA model. NYC cases and hospitalizations are plummeting. Hospitalizations in the northeast and midwest have peaked per the NYT. Wastewater measures of Covid in Boston are approaching pre Omicron levels, indicating people there are no longer getting infected. Cases in the US as a whole peaked last week.
It would be more useful to speculate on why Omicron peaked and will disappear so rapidly.

[NickB79]

5. Your example of NYC reinforces the point in the article

NYC peaked, and is dropping rapidly. They were heavily vaccinated.

But other parts of the country are weeks from peak. And deaths lag infection by weeks as well. And many states, or parts of states, are far less vaccinated than NYC. Here in Minnesota, we're still a week out from our expected peak. The red, rural areas are keeping the surge going like mad. My county of birth, where most of my family still lives, with under 50% vaccination, is at 1600 cases/100,000! The National Guard is the only thing keeping their hospitals from collapse.

The point of the article was that, in a nation as large as ours, with such varying rates of vaccination, we could see a drawn-out Omicron surge for the next month or two for our nation as a whole, with deaths from that surge carrying on into the spring as people on ventilators linger.

[Tomconroy]

6. Florida peaked and cases are dropping just like NYC.

[Phoenix61]

8. Except that's not what the article said.

It said there’s no way of knowing what will happen and that’s simply not true. Omicron has followed the same pattern around the world, it peaks quickly then drops quickly. Due to the US being a huge country different areas will peak at different times but the pattern hasn’t changed. No one is looking at Europe and saying the pattern changed because different countries peaked at different times.

[NickB79]

9. Except that's also not true

In Europe, a sub variant of Omicron is now driving a NEW surge in cases.

https://fortune.com/2022/01/21/what-is-stealth-omicron-new-covid-variant-substrain-denmark/

On Thursday, Denmark reported that the BA.2 substrain of Omicron accounts for almost half of the country’s cases and is quickly displacing BA.1, the original Omicron strain. Denmark reported that in the two weeks from late December to mid-January, BA.2 has gone from accounting for 20% of Denmark’s COVID-19 infections to making up 45%. Over that same period, Denmark’s COVID infections have shot to record highs. Denmark is recording over 30,000 new cases per day this week, 10 times more cases than peaks in previous waves.

I'm not sure if it's recorded in the US yet.

[Phoenix61]

10. But that's not what the article is talking about.

It doesn’t mention any other variant.

[Tomconroy]

11. A very few BA.2 cases have been sequenced in the US in disperate

parts of the country.

[Demsrule86]

13. Exactly....doom and gloomers

[Celerity]

17. BA.2 is an entirely new Omicron subvariant that's just now exploding all records for number of cases

per day for anytime during the entire pandemic over here in the EU, and that is despite the fact that many of the countries here have vaxxed rates higher than the US and more mask compliance.

We are almost always weeks ahead of the US so far when it comes to Covid cases from most new variants and subvariants, unless they have their genesis in the US.

We have a segment of people who aren't going to be able to let go of it.

Do explain how one 'lets go' of something that just started up here and has yet to even reach the US in terms of any significant numbers?

Ignore it? Hope it 'just disappears'?

I have not even been posting OP's about Covid that much lately (a total of 3 in the last 10 days, two newish ones on Omicron BA.2 (both about the EU and/ir the UK) and then one about booster longevity), but this BA.2 is newsworthy IMHO.

I am sorry if news about Covid puts you in such a strop, but I am not going to be cowed into not posting about it.

DU’s most prolific cut and paste enthusiast is Exhibit A in another thread.

My OP (I speak of the one you replied on multiple times in the thread) had no cut and paste text excerpts (which BTW is how excerpts from any article anyone posts here are done). It was just my own words, except for one link, a link to a page for one chart I used (I posted the same chart twice, one for the entire length of the pandemic, and then the same chart, shortened the timespan to the last 4 months) The other BA.2 OP was a simple short article from a London business and financial paper.

This is what Omicron BA.2 is doing to us over here. I reserve the right to post on that subject, be it at my leisure, or until the owners of this site ban European-based (subject-wise) Covid posts.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

[Maru Kitteh]

29. Thanks for posting Celerity. As an infection control/covid RN, I can't afford to bury

my head in the sand and hope it goes away. Patients and employees will suffer if I don't keep my head up. It's pretty hurtful to see DU'ers knock those who choose to remain informed about COVID for remaining cautious about declarations that it's all mild now and the end is right around the corner.

So again - thank you.

[dem4decades]

2. It's a big country, some places going up. some down.

[ismnotwasm]

7. Omicron is peaking

Hospitals and healthcare in general on the other hand, are going to be an even bigger shitshow for months to come

[Demsrule86]

12. This is pure opinion and damn close to irresponsible journalism...I generally expect more from

this newspaper.

[cadoman]

30. a "good read" requires a bit more than a list of omnidirectional conjectures

A lot of stuff may happen. I get it.

I guess the Atlantic could always use the alms though. Bless their hearts.

[ProfessorGAC]

14. Per Worlometer's Graph...

...this wave peaked on January 13, and each 7 day moving average point has been lower since.
That would be called a decline! Each of 7 smoothed out points in a row each going down is pretty compelling.
Then, Fauci was on TV today(!) saying he expected this wave to last until the middle of February.
Finally, the country has averaged over 600,000 cases per day for the last 20 days. If we go back 30 days, we add in 10 more days at roughly 350,000 per day.
That's 15 million people recently infected. Those people are not very likely to get reinfected for quite a while, especially the fully vaxxed & boosted.
The numbers & Fauci's opinion dilute the impact of this piece, for me.

[Initech]

15. It's already been a long-ass winter.

[lame54]

16. That's a big Could...

That article was one big guess

[roamer65]

18. Pretty sure I have it right now.

Like a mild head cold for me since I’m triple vaxxed Moderna.

[ProfessorGAC]

19. I Thought The Same

Right at Christmas time I had a pretty bad cold.
I tested negative twice, but both were the antigen tests and they suggest that false negatives are more likely among vaxxed & boosted people because there's not enough of the analyte protein in the upper respiratory areas.
It was among the worst colds I ever had. Really drippy, heavy congestion, ... Took nearly a full 2 weeks to feel normal again.
Now, I don't know if I had omicron or if it was actually just a cold.

[roamer65]

21. Im not gonna get tested.

It’s mild enough I don’t want to risk spreading it to the medical staff, if it is Omicron.

Just isolating myself for a week or so.

As far as what you had…who knows? Glad you didn’t end up in a hospital. 👍

[ProfessorGAC]

22. I Have A Tendency...

...for colds to become sinus or bronchial infections. Not that it happens that often, but as leaky as I was, I thought it might be more than a cold.
I tested negative at home, so I went in. They recommended doing it again, so I said ok. It was negative, too. But, they showed me the card. It was the same Binax test I did at home.
Statistics suggest it was a real negative, but one never knows.
One thing: my cough was never dry. It was always productive. I can always feel it moving stuff around.
I keep hearing about the unproductive cough with COVID, and I didn't have that.

[roamer65]

25. My cough is dry.

Indicative of a touch of viral pneumonia.

I am already starting to calm down tonite. Moderna x 3 is doing its job.

I am betting my antibody titer is going through the roof.

[Meowmee]

20. Pos rate went from 29% to 35% in our county ( NY)

But graph is dropping, nyt source said cases are not being counted correctly. Deaths are up as are hospitalizations.

[Dorian Gray]

24. What county are you in?

Statewide they're down. Same in NYC. I'm grateful.

Link to tweet

?s=20

Link to tweet

?s=20

[Meowmee]

26. Suffolk

[Dorian Gray]

27. Looks like you guys

are headed down, too. Can check stats here:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/suffolk-new-york-covid-cases.html


That rise was scary, though. You're one of the lower counties in NY State.

[Meowmee]

28. Not if pos rate is higher

Something is wrong. We are marked still as very high risk. It was 29% last week.

[Dorian Gray]

23. In NYC it's descending pretty quickly

our positivity rate today was just over 5%. Three weeks ago it was hovering around 23%. This is a good thing.

Hospitalizations and deaths are also down.

I know not every place in the country has the same considerations that we do.

Link to tweet

?s=20