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Mon Jan 24, 2022, 04:39 PM

Does anyone think China will go into Taiwan if Russia goes into Ukraine?

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Reply Does anyone think China will go into Taiwan if Russia goes into Ukraine? (Original post)
slater71 Jan 2022 OP
TreasonousBastard Jan 2022 #1
roamer65 Jan 2022 #2
maxsolomon Jan 2022 #8
roamer65 Jan 2022 #9
maxsolomon Jan 2022 #11
roamer65 Jan 2022 #12
qazplm135 Jan 2022 #15
Irish_Dem Jan 2022 #20
Sherman A1 Jan 2022 #3
orwell Jan 2022 #4
Klaralven Jan 2022 #16
orwell Jan 2022 #19
OAITW r.2.0 Jan 2022 #26
Klaralven Jan 2022 #29
OAITW r.2.0 Jan 2022 #32
Johonny Jan 2022 #17
OAITW r.2.0 Jan 2022 #27
Irish_Dem Jan 2022 #21
OAITW r.2.0 Jan 2022 #5
Irish_Dem Jan 2022 #22
qazplm135 Jan 2022 #6
roamer65 Jan 2022 #10
Irish_Dem Jan 2022 #23
roamer65 Jan 2022 #24
Irish_Dem Jan 2022 #25
OAITW r.2.0 Jan 2022 #30
OAITW r.2.0 Jan 2022 #28
Downtown Hound Jan 2022 #7
Red Mountain Jan 2022 #13
OAITW r.2.0 Jan 2022 #31
BlueCheeseAgain Jan 2022 #14
Xolodno Jan 2022 #18

Response to slater71 (Original post)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 04:42 PM

1. Not really. China will go into Taiwan, but when it's good and ready

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Response to slater71 (Original post)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 04:43 PM

2. ..or North Korea will come across the 38th parallel.

Another possibility and more likely IMO.

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Response to roamer65 (Reply #2)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 06:01 PM

8. NK would be insane to do that.

They won't. The main interest of NK's Kakistocracy is self-perpetuation.

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Response to maxsolomon (Reply #8)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 06:02 PM

9. Kim Jong Crazy isn't sane.

Neither is Putin or Xi for that matter.

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Response to roamer65 (Reply #9)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 06:04 PM

11. For an insane person, he sure makes rational decisions

Even killing his brother was a rational decision, from a Machiavellian viewpoint.

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Response to maxsolomon (Reply #11)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 06:06 PM

12. From that viewpoint, maybe.

The whole world is upside down nowadays.

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Response to maxsolomon (Reply #11)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 06:40 PM

15. A rational decision

Would be to trade concessions for aid food loosening of sanctions

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Response to roamer65 (Reply #9)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 08:34 PM

20. They are sociopaths, but not psychotic.

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Response to slater71 (Original post)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 04:47 PM

3. Yes

I think it is all a set up.

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Response to slater71 (Original post)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 04:47 PM

4. This is never going to happen...

...Taiwan semiconductor is too important to the world's economy for China to do this.

The US and other nations will physically defend Taiwan.

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Response to orwell (Reply #4)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 07:21 PM

16. A few dozen missiles would eliminate Taiwan's semiconductor industry

 

The fabs are rather fragile to shock, exposure to the elements, cutoff of power, etc.

They are fed ultra-pure chemicals and materials by other highly sophisticated plants that are easily damaged.

Over 80% of Taiwan's power is supplied by imported coal, oil and gas which is easily cut off.

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Response to Klaralven (Reply #16)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 08:06 PM

19. It is in nobody's interest...

...to destroy these fabs or cut them off from power.

China can not yet produce the 2-5nm chips that these fabs produce. ASML will not sell them the equipment.

Maybe 5 or 10 years down the road China will be in this space, but right now, the world would not allow a real threat to this company.

There would be a full scale war over Taiwan and TSMC and the Chinese know it. I never understood our fixation with Taiwan until I really dug into the chip industry due to curiosity and investment analysis. My previous interest was mostly biotech. It is startling how critical this one company is to global technology.

This was what was so lunatic about TFG's bluster over China, China, China. He only increased China's determination to develop a competitive semiconductor industry. He probably moved up the timeline by 5 to 10 years.

What a short-sighted moron.

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Response to Klaralven (Reply #16)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 09:16 PM

26. Semiconductors is a national security issue.

Silicon manufacturing is highly automated. Labor is a little part of the overall cost to bring to market. Why this industry was allowed to head for cheaper labor / non-US markets never made sense to me.

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Response to OAITW r.2.0 (Reply #26)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 09:27 PM

29. Most likely the US encouraged Taiwan to develop their semiconductor industry

 

Taiwan doesn't have much in the way of natural resources. They do have a lot of managerial/professional/bureaucratic class people who arrived after '49 and who could develop high tech industries. We probably thought that it would be a fine thing for them to undertake in order to pay for US weapons and military assistance.

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Response to Klaralven (Reply #29)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 09:39 PM

32. I'm sure your thinking was correct for the times.

I've been there twice. A very nationalistic country back 15 years ago. Any Chinese invasion will be a fight to the death for the Taiwanese. China is making overtures with recent show of force flyby's into Taiwanese airspace.....but sending an invasion force is a whole different set of dynamics for China.

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Response to orwell (Reply #4)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 07:28 PM

17. The economic impact to China invading Taiwan would likely

collapse the new wealth and middle class of China. I mean, Japan, USA among others aren't simply going to let that happen and there's no indication Chinese economy can be propped up without demand from the West.

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Response to Johonny (Reply #17)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 09:21 PM

27. As gradual as our entry into China was, the exit could be relatively quick.

China doesn't like foreign ownership. This could come back to bite them, big time. I have interests in China - both financial and personal. I don't like the way China is going and I think it will be a long term loser for the CCP. People got a whiff of Democracy and they won't be going back to Mao's vision for China's future.

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Response to orwell (Reply #4)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 08:37 PM

21. When they take over they won't destroy the big assets.

China is very smart.

We don't know for sure if Japan and the US will defend Taiwan when push comes to shove.

The US is sharply divided on foreign policy and greatly weakened internally.

We don't care about our own democracy, why would we defend another country's democracy.

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Response to slater71 (Original post)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 04:54 PM

5. Would not shock me at all.

I could see both China and Russia starting invasions timed at the same time. They are becoming strategic allies who probably think that the West will not react if their invasions are timed to start concurrently.

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Response to OAITW r.2.0 (Reply #5)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 08:38 PM

22. Yes Americans will not go for two wars overseas.

And yes Russian and China are strategic allies right now.

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Response to slater71 (Original post)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 05:04 PM

6. Bush shot our wad

He made us weak because now our appetite for war is definitely non-existent.

Not that was is good, but it is sometimes a necessary evil.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #6)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 06:04 PM

10. The world is changing.

We need to change with it and form a close political union with the EU, Australia, NZ and Canada.

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Response to roamer65 (Reply #10)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 08:39 PM

23. After Bush and Trump our allies are wary.

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Response to Irish_Dem (Reply #23)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 08:41 PM

24. True, but conflict tends to make like groups circle the wagons together.

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Response to roamer65 (Reply #24)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 08:44 PM

25. Yes could be the case.

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Response to roamer65 (Reply #10)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 09:27 PM

30. SK and Japan as well.

Russia's economic output doesn't equal California. China's economic foundation is resting on bamboo. The way to fight this is not with military, but with economic reality.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #6)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 09:24 PM

28. That trillion dollar military investment we made in Iraq and Afghanistan?

Another Republican write-off. Think about what we learned in our living laboratory of war tech development!

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Response to slater71 (Original post)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 05:56 PM

7. Not a chance

Despite all the hype you've heard, China isn't even close to being ready to pull off an invasion of Taiwan. They simply don't have the amphibious troop support structure necessary to pull it off...yet. Now, in 15 or 20 years...that's another story.

Let me put it to you another way. D-Day was the largest amphibious operation in history. It involved sending 156,000 allied troops into France on the first day, and they faced roughly 50,000 defenders. To do this they needed almost 7,000 ships, 2400 aircraft, and 900 gliders. Taiwan has 290,000 active duty troops and more than 2 million more in reserve.

China isn't nearly ready. It will be a minimum of 15 years before they're even close. And it's entirely possible they may never be ready. Taiwan is a fortress.

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Response to Downtown Hound (Reply #7)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 06:07 PM

13. Agreed

but I'd hate to be a naval invasion force in 15 or 20 years given the rate of innovation in semi and fully autonomous drones.

Things are changing rapidly.

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Response to Red Mountain (Reply #13)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 09:33 PM

31. Correct....future war tech will be fought in a totally different way. But Cyber warfare is already

happening and we best deal with it as an act of war.

Unfortunately, we have a Party in our nation's politic that is now a willing collaborator with a force against Democracy. Why did Republican leadership approve their member's visit to Russia on the 4th of July in 2018? Trump or Putin's orders?

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Response to slater71 (Original post)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 06:10 PM

14. Very different situations.

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Response to slater71 (Original post)

Mon Jan 24, 2022, 07:39 PM

18. No.

China doesn't have that capability....yet. And against Taiwan, it would be costly. And China knows its how they handled Hong Kong and Macau for the sudden about face of Taiwan keeping its distance.

But they are watching what happens in Ukraine and gauging our response.

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