Does anyone think China will go into Taiwan if Russia goes into Ukraine?

Another possibility and more likely IMO.

They won't. The main interest of NK's Kakistocracy is self-perpetuation.

Neither is Putin or Xi for that matter.

Even killing his brother was a rational decision, from a Machiavellian viewpoint.

The whole world is upside down nowadays.

Would be to trade concessions for aid food loosening of sanctions

I think it is all a set up.

...Taiwan semiconductor is too important to the world's economy for China to do this.

The US and other nations will physically defend Taiwan.

The fabs are rather fragile to shock, exposure to the elements, cutoff of power, etc.

They are fed ultra-pure chemicals and materials by other highly sophisticated plants that are easily damaged.

Over 80% of Taiwan's power is supplied by imported coal, oil and gas which is easily cut off.

...to destroy these fabs or cut them off from power.

China can not yet produce the 2-5nm chips that these fabs produce. ASML will not sell them the equipment.

Maybe 5 or 10 years down the road China will be in this space, but right now, the world would not allow a real threat to this company.

There would be a full scale war over Taiwan and TSMC and the Chinese know it. I never understood our fixation with Taiwan until I really dug into the chip industry due to curiosity and investment analysis. My previous interest was mostly biotech. It is startling how critical this one company is to global technology.

This was what was so lunatic about TFG's bluster over China, China, China. He only increased China's determination to develop a competitive semiconductor industry. He probably moved up the timeline by 5 to 10 years.

What a short-sighted moron.

Silicon manufacturing is highly automated. Labor is a little part of the overall cost to bring to market. Why this industry was allowed to head for cheaper labor / non-US markets never made sense to me.

Taiwan doesn't have much in the way of natural resources. They do have a lot of managerial/professional/bureaucratic class people who arrived after '49 and who could develop high tech industries. We probably thought that it would be a fine thing for them to undertake in order to pay for US weapons and military assistance.

I've been there twice. A very nationalistic country back 15 years ago. Any Chinese invasion will be a fight to the death for the Taiwanese. China is making overtures with recent show of force flyby's into Taiwanese airspace.....but sending an invasion force is a whole different set of dynamics for China.

collapse the new wealth and middle class of China. I mean, Japan, USA among others aren't simply going to let that happen and there's no indication Chinese economy can be propped up without demand from the West.

China doesn't like foreign ownership. This could come back to bite them, big time. I have interests in China - both financial and personal. I don't like the way China is going and I think it will be a long term loser for the CCP. People got a whiff of Democracy and they won't be going back to Mao's vision for China's future.

China is very smart.

We don't know for sure if Japan and the US will defend Taiwan when push comes to shove.

The US is sharply divided on foreign policy and greatly weakened internally.

We don't care about our own democracy, why would we defend another country's democracy.

I could see both China and Russia starting invasions timed at the same time. They are becoming strategic allies who probably think that the West will not react if their invasions are timed to start concurrently.

And yes Russian and China are strategic allies right now.

He made us weak because now our appetite for war is definitely non-existent.

Not that was is good, but it is sometimes a necessary evil.

We need to change with it and form a close political union with the EU, Australia, NZ and Canada.

Russia's economic output doesn't equal California. China's economic foundation is resting on bamboo. The way to fight this is not with military, but with economic reality.

Another Republican write-off. Think about what we learned in our living laboratory of war tech development!

Despite all the hype you've heard, China isn't even close to being ready to pull off an invasion of Taiwan. They simply don't have the amphibious troop support structure necessary to pull it off...yet. Now, in 15 or 20 years...that's another story.

Let me put it to you another way. D-Day was the largest amphibious operation in history. It involved sending 156,000 allied troops into France on the first day, and they faced roughly 50,000 defenders. To do this they needed almost 7,000 ships, 2400 aircraft, and 900 gliders. Taiwan has 290,000 active duty troops and more than 2 million more in reserve.

China isn't nearly ready. It will be a minimum of 15 years before they're even close. And it's entirely possible they may never be ready. Taiwan is a fortress.

but I'd hate to be a naval invasion force in 15 or 20 years given the rate of innovation in semi and fully autonomous drones.

Things are changing rapidly.

happening and we best deal with it as an act of war.

Unfortunately, we have a Party in our nation's politic that is now a willing collaborator with a force against Democracy. Why did Republican leadership approve their member's visit to Russia on the 4th of July in 2018? Trump or Putin's orders?

China doesn't have that capability....yet. And against Taiwan, it would be costly. And China knows its how they handled Hong Kong and Macau for the sudden about face of Taiwan keeping its distance.

But they are watching what happens in Ukraine and gauging our response.