Why is the media still carrying the narrative that the GOP will win the house in 2022 ?

[drray23]

I understand that initially it was reported that the gerrymandering was such that it gave them a huge advantage.

However, it is turning out that it is not so cut and dry and the democrats may actually hold an edge instead of being heavily handicapped.

So why is this narrative still prevalent? Is it just because the media is too lazy to reassess, that they are going with the usual "the party in power loses the midterms" or something more nefarious? (Maybe to drive down democratic voter participation?)

[Poiuyt]

1. I was wondering about that too

We might have a small edge to new gerrymandering, but I think what Republicans did in the past still remains. Plus, Biden has got to get his approval numbers up so that people can feel good about the Democratic Party. Biden has accomplished a lot, but he's not getting the credit for it. He needs to promote himself.

[onecaliberal]

2. They're just propaganda farms now.

[Dave says]

8. With occasional exceptions, they always were

[SoCalDavidS]

3. I Think You Mean 2022 nt

[drray23]

5. yes, thank you. I will correct my post..nt

[blm]

10. ✔️

[uponit7771]

4. MAGA Media has already shown it rates well

[FalloutShelter]

6. "Historically" blah blah blah....

If this year does not break the mold, I don’t know what will.

no

[spanone]

7. I hear it almost daily, yet everything else is unprecedented....

so will be the midterms IMHO

[RockRaven]

9. Horse racing is their business.

If there's no close contest, why would anyone spend money buying ad time from them?

[iemanja]

11. The good thing is

they are always wrong. You'd think they'd learn as a result, but they never do.

[TomSlick]

12. You don't have to be particularly intelligent or hard working to be a media talking head.

There is no incentive to look behind the conventional "wisdom." The goal of the media is to stir the pot.

[madville]

13. It's gonna depend on gas and grocery prices

Independents vote and swing elections based on their wallet, especially in midterms. Gas is gonna be over $4 a gallon soon, not good for a midterm election. And we have all seen what’s happening at the grocery store.

Worrying about 5-10 gerrymandered seats may not matter, this could be a 20-40 seat swing if gas and grocery prices continue to rise.

[Mad_Machine76]

14. I know that Indies can be finicky when times are tough

Seems stupid and illogical that they would put the stupid and illogical party partly in charge of things over and over again, somehow thinking that THEN things might get better.

[bottomofthehill]

18. Winner Madville, This is the right answer.

If Covid, crime and cost of living are under control, then there is a chance to buck history. But it’s not easy. Look at the shitty candidates that won in Virginia. Republicans are enthused to fuck Brandon or whatever the stupid slogan is and they are beating the drum. Everyplace you look republicans are whipping up the fear of crime, empty store shelves, high gas prices. It’s in places like next door, linked in, all sorts of places not just Facebook and Twitter.

[Silent3]

15. Because it's a reasonable assessment of the odds

Which is not to say anything is certain, but the odds certainly lean in favor of Republicans, if for no other reason than historical precedent. Gerrymandering is hardly the only factor Democrats are fighting against.

There's a lot the media fucks up, I certainly won't disagree with that, and I also feel like they give Democrats a much harder time than Republicans, but in this case their narrative isn't unreasonable or nefarious.

[Hekate]

16. Why are so many of us here?

[crickets]

17. 👆👆

[brooklynite]

19. No - you're misinterpreting the data

Democrats have an edge only with respect to the impact of redistricting. That says nothing about the enthusiasm of voters, the generally lag in Democrats voting in midterms, and State voting restrictions.