The edge of war: what, exactly, does Putin want in Ukraine?

[marmar]

(Guardian UK) Why is Russia threatening to invade Ukraine?
Russian spokespeople daily deny any intention to invade. So, too, did Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, when he met the French leader, Emmanuel Macron, last week, and when he spoke to US president Joe Biden on the phone. There are two problems with this. First, given Putin’s Johnsonian relationship with truth, few western governments believe the denials. Second, Putin has not explained why, if his intentions are peaceful, more than half of Russia’s armed forces, including 130,000 troops, are massed on Ukraine’s borders. It could all be a bluff. But who would bet the house on that?

So what drives Putin?
There are numerous theories. Putin is said to want to rebuild a Russian sphere of influence in eastern Europe, principally embracing former Soviet republics such as now independent Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Georgia and Ukraine. He has frequently bemoaned their “loss” after the Soviet Union collapsed. Putin may also hope to demonstrate to the west (and Russians) that the country is still a superpower, even though by most measures (nuclear weapon stockpiles and geography apart) it is a failing medium-sized power.

Why Ukraine?
Putin fears strategically important Ukraine, commanding Russia’s south-western flank, is assimilating into the west. He objects to its growing closeness to Nato. He also opposes Kyiv’s developing links with the EU. Worse still, from his point of view, Ukraine is a democracy, with free speech and free media, which freely elects its leaders. In practice, Russians enjoy no such freedoms – if they followed Ukraine’s example, Putin would not last long. More broadly, Putin is a nostalgic revisionist who regards Ukraine as an integral part of historical Russia and its loss as a symbol of Russia’s cold war defeat.

Why now?
Putin may sense western weakness. Nato was humiliated last year in Afghanistan and Joe Biden, who campaigned to end wars, not engage in new ones, has refocused American foreign policy and military resources on China, not Europe. It’s also suggested Putin needs a big victory to shore up his domestic support, vindicate his anti-western policies, excuse rampant regime corruption and kleptomania, and justify the hardships Russians endure as a result of western sanctions imposed after his first attack on Ukraine, in 2014. That was when he annexed Crimea and took de facto control of the eastern Donbas region. ...........(more)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/12/russia-ukraine-what-does-putin-want

[sarisataka]

1. It can be summed up in 3 words

Empire
Food
Security

[highnooner]

2. He wants to prove that NATO does not exist

[Sherman A1]

10. He may be in for a serious education

on that point.

[pwb]

3. People like Putin and Trump do shit just because they can.

They are privileged Little Dicks.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

4. No. Putin is ruthless and murderous. tRump is too stupid to know or care when he does illegal stuff.

[pwb]

5. So they don't do things because they can?

Thanks for the correction?

[Bernardo de La Paz]

6. No they don't. They get away with it. That's separate from their motivations. . . . nt

[pwb]

7. I don't know why I bother giving my opinion.

You got this.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

8. I sometimes learn from your posts so I'm glad you give your opinion though I sometimes disagree

And it is all for lively debate.

[pwb]

9. I don't know why you say no to a poster here.

We are same same.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

11. Yes, more same than not, despite great diversity. I say no to ideas, factoids, conclusions

Almost every single one of us is in the same parade, fighting the same good fight, working to advance society to a better more equal fulfilling future. But how we get there is open to debate.

In particular, I value clear thinking and push myself to be clearer on analysis and issues and in writing. However, I do fail and I apologize that I sometimes am too harsh in beating down what I perceive as fuzzy or misguided thinking, particularly the binary-thinking fallacy.

[slightlv]

13. Then I need to apologize to you for all my posts

past, present, and especially, future. I used to be quite clear in my writing. Now, too often, my writing (along with my thoughts) are as fuzzy as the marbles quickly zinging through the open spaces of my old mind... Doesn't detract from my passion, tho!

[Bernardo de La Paz]

16. I hadn't noticed any problem. Your good graces sustain you. But yes, we all age. . . . nt

[BlueIdaho]

12. What Does Putin Want?

The end of western democracies. Period.

[Skittles]

17. BINGO

[dalton99a]

21. +1

[Samrob]

14. Their resources and to make NATO look bad and broken. nt

[brettdale]

15. Its simple

He wants Russia to be the Soviet Union, normally the Russians would play the
long game, waiting hundreds of years, but Putin wants to be big man on campus,
he wants to be the guy to do it.

He may even do it on superbowl sunday, just to make some weird point.

[radius777]

18. Putin is waging war on the West.

Ukraine is scary to him because Ukraine has shown that (despite their issues w/corruption) they have what it takes to be a Western style democracy. If Ukraine can succeed and be properous and free - then Russians may want the same thing - which could spell the end to Putin and his oligarchs.

The West is making a grave mistake in appeasing Putin (and Xi, but China is heavily dependent on Western consumers in a way Russia is not) who only respects military force. NATO should've built up forces in that region once Putin moved on Crimea. By doing little in response Putin has become emboldened. He messed with our elections in 2016 and helped to install Trump. Putin has never paid any real price for these actions and thus continues on.

[Spider Jerusalem]

19. The answer is "revanchism"

Putin views Ukraine as intrinsically Russian due to history (Kievan Rus was the cradle of the Russian nation and bequeathed Byzantine architecture, Eastern Orthodox Christianity, and Old Church Slavonic liturgy, among other things). Not any different than Hitler annexing the Sudetenland. There are other strategic considerations involved, but nationalist revanchism is certainly part of it.

[Voltaire2]

23. Exactly right.

Russia has viewed Ukraine as its vassal state for centuries.

[Azathoth]

20. Putin does not want a huge NATO country right on his border

any more than we would have wanted Canada or Mexico to join the Warsaw Pact. It's really that simple.

We screwed up by encouraging Ukraine to pursue full NATO membership. Had we limited NATO's involvement to cooperative engagement and made it clear we thought Ukraine should remain ostensibly neutral, we might have headed this off. Now Putin is going to make an example of them and return them to full satellite status.

Either Ukraine willingly abandons Western democracy and turns itself into a client of Putin, or he's gonna wreck them permanently.

[marie999]

22. We screwed up long ago in 1990 and 1991 during the negotiations for Germany unifications.

Russia was told that NATO would not expand to the East. National Security Archives article,

NATO Expansion: What Gorbachev Heard