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Tue Feb 15, 2022, 11:12 PM

Price of oil and Ukraine

I am wondering if Putin's strategy is not to actually invade Ukraine but instead make it look like he will in order to drive the price of oil. Its Russia's main source of income. I am not an expert in geopolitics, so I looked it up.
It does look like some analysts have been considering this possibility. For example, the financial review has an article about it:

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/oil-prices-surge-as-world-on-edge-over-ukraine-20220213-p59w2i

After all, the cost of a long and sustained war in Ukraine could be devastating to the Russian economy.

Raising the prospect of a war however has immediate benefits such as making the cost of oil skyrocket, making Putin look strong domestically and may be enabling him to extract concessions from NATO.

We shall see in a few days if that was the goal all along or if instead, he really wants to invade and recreate the eastern block.

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Reply Price of oil and Ukraine (Original post)
drray23 Feb 2022 OP
WarGamer Feb 2022 #1
qazplm135 Feb 2022 #2

Response to drray23 (Original post)

Tue Feb 15, 2022, 11:42 PM

1. That's certainly part of it...

Mostly he wants EU/NATO concessions and generally wag his D*^% around to scare people.

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Response to drray23 (Original post)

Tue Feb 15, 2022, 11:49 PM

2. that's pretty temporary

you can only make that play for a short period of time before folks think you are crying wolf and then prices come back down, over a long enough time, you could actually lose money.

I don't think the mere price of oil has much to do with this.

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