What do you think will happen if Russia invades Ukraine?

[zanana1]

All I can think is that allies (including us) will join forces and bring about WW3.

[Sherman A1]

1. Nothing good

as for the particulars, that hopefully is never seen.

[gab13by13]

2. A war crime.

[Chainfire]

3. What will happen?

A lot of pulling of hair and gnashing of teeth, threats and tears, and Russia will occupy Ukraine.

Putin has calculated that no one will start WWIII over Ukraine.

[zanana1]

5. I hope you're right.

[Clash City Rocker]

19. You hate Ukraine that much?

If Russia faces no consequence for invading another nation, they will likely invade another after that. History tells us that is a bad thing.

[Demsrule86]

24. We simply can't have a war over this...it can't and won't happen.

[Demsrule86]

25. No, to war.

[mitch96]

29. "History tells us that is a bad thing.".. Yup, Neville Chamberlain gave the Sudetenland

A German speaking territory in Czechoslovakia to Hitler. He thought he was avoiding "conflict" but it only gave the little nazi more impetus to take more land...
"Lebensraum" As Hitler put it. A place to expand for the "racially superior" people.

I think PUtin just wants to get Russia back to post WW2 territory, whether the people living in those lands want it or not...uff
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[Thomas Hurt]

4. From what I have seen and heard, Russia will have sanctions slapped on them immediately.

The Ukrainians will resist best they can. There will be a refugee problem. Probably a guerilla resistance in the country as well.

Based on Joe's presser, NATO/US military are not going to get involved unless Putin's forces wander into NATO territory.

I imagine that NATO will be supplying Ukraine from the Western border.

[John Ludi]

7. I think

this is the most likely scenario.

And I wonder if China would see this as a green light to move on Taiwan.

[awesomerwb1]

10. Wouldn't rule it out.nt

[Irish_Dem]

20. Make no mistake, China is closely watching how this plays out.

I wouldn't be surprised if Beijing encouraged Moscow. Not that Putin needed much encouragement.

[mitch96]

30. "China is closely watching how this plays out". Just like how Japan watched how Europe played out

b4 it's attack on Pearl Harbor. Since Chamberlain backed down they thought the US would back down also... Ahhh no..
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[Irish_Dem]

33. Exactly.

Very nice understanding of WWII and linking facts to current day events.

[mitch96]

34. This always rings in my head.. "Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it"..nt

[GoCubsGo]

31. Yep, and those sanctions will likely destroy Russia's economy.

The West will also cut off Putin's and his other oligarch associates' access to their foreign bank accounts, so they won't be able to get at the bulk of their money. And, there will, no doubt, but a whole lot of cyber attacks.

[LakeArenal]

6. A whole bunch saber rattling.

[A HERETIC I AM]

8. It won't be WWIII, but it won't be pretty

It could be Russia's Viet Nam, in that they will be fighting a nation of resistors , and those resistors will be getting help from the US and the rest of NATO, just as the Viet Cong were getting help from the Chinese and the Soviets.

Imagine if a foreign power were to do the same to us. Imagine if Canada had once considered the US part of it and now wants us back. There is no way it could happen. Ukraine has had a couple decades to enjoy NOT being under the Soviet thumb, so to speak.

The Russians can not win this if there are enough Ukrainians to resist. Not to mention that Russia, as big as it is, has an economy half the GDP of California, for fucks sake. They can't afford a protracted war with an army (or population) that can't be defeated.

I don't know who said it, but it will apply to this at some point;

"The end of a war is not defined by the victor, but by the vanquished."

In other words, if a population refuses to give up and surrender, it doesn't matter who they are fighting.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

9. A whole lot of handwringing and gnashing of teeth

About how awful war is and how we shouldn't get involved and ZERO concern about the people actually getting killed by the Russians.

[Torchlight]

16. I think concern about these deaths is obvious and implicit

under the umbrella of the "hand-wringing and gnashing of teeth" regarding war itself.

[C_U_L8R]

11. Russia will never get the respect it craves so badly

It will be outcast and economically diminished until its people realize Putin and the criminal oligarchs did this all to them. Until then, they seem doomed to repeating the same story over and over.

[doc03]

12. They will get away with it at first then it depends

on how effective Ukraine is in resisting. Gas prices will go up and most Americans won't give a flying f--k about Ukraine just gas prices. Russia will cut off gas to Europe blaming sanctions and it won't be long before Europe starts squealing like a pig and blameing Biden

[brachism]

13. Apologies for make light of a serious and possibly deadly situation, but

(The world) is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions; fire and brimstone coming down from the skies, rivers and seas boiling, 40 years of darkness, earthquakes, volcanoes, the dead rising from the grave, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria.

(R.I.P. Ivan Reitman)

[SoonerPride]

14. Nothing like that will happen.

We will sanction Russia.

The right wing will celebrate.

[Amishman]

15. A nasty proxy war

US and allies funneling weapons and intel to the Ukrainians, creating a bloody quagmire.

Success in that terrain requires air control, and Russia is extremely behind other major powers in stealth technology. I'm expecting that the West is flooding the Ukraine with air defense systems and experts to crash train troops on their use. Deny Russia the ability to provide close air support, and the defenders stand a much better chance.

Russia's economy is not great, nor is their military in a position for a protracted war of attrition.

[Probatim]

17. WWIII won't be as profitable for the oligarchs - many small wars are much more profitable.

Plus I think he's doing this to pump up the price of oil to pad his coffers for a few months.

[Turbineguy]

18. US republicans will support Putin.

[Enoki33]

21. Suspect Putin may have made one of

his rare miscalculations. May have underestimated the effects of crippling sanctions, determination of the Ukrainians to fight for their country and the willingness of the Russian people to willingly accept it all, despite all the propaganda bombardment. He may also have misplaced reliance on economic lifelines from China. It could conceivably lead eventually to his downfall.

[Torchlight]

22. If it happens, I'm pessimistic about the outcome.

I think given the current deployment (and all other things being equal), Moscow could (could, not will) overrun the nation from the north and east in as little as three weeks.

If that turns out to be the case, it comes down to will and patience-- can/would western sanctions outlast the Russian occupation of the nation. I do not think the western nations would directly aid Kiev and I think Putin knows that and counts on it; keeping the conflict regional in scale.

Given the anemic reactions by the west to the Russo-Georgian war and the annexation of Crimea, my glass-half-empty bias gets even more so.

[Demsrule86]

23. No that will not happen no matter what.

[Joinfortmill]

26. Ukraine will suffer greatly, but so will Putin & Co.

This is a scary game of 'chicken'.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

27. Soooo very much of this reminds me of Russia in Afghanistan.

Some would say all big powers with dictators and fascist leaders must have an occasional war to rally the minions, to maintain insane levels of patriotism and to maintain their death-grip on power.

To this amateur observer, Putin has no rational reason for invading but I think he feels historically justified in maintaining a soft red wall around Russia's borders as a shield for his unwarranted fears..

KY

[themaguffin]

28. Read Sen Murphy's tweet thread on this...

Link to tweet

]

[mitch96]

32. My fear in a worst case is as an escalation proceeds is that cyber warfare will turn everything off

EVerything run by a computer that is hooked to the internet will get "hacked" turned off or made inoperable..
Remember how "someone" blew up the centrifuges in Iran with a software tweak?
I hope it never gets this far...
m