I have a feeling Putin's days are numbered

[relayerbob]

This war is not off to a good start. It was stupid to begin with, and there certainly was not a uniform agreement that Ukraine is a threat. The generals and oligarchs are likely to be unhappy now, and will be progressively less entertained if Putin's Folly doesn't play out in their favor soon.

1 - It will take Russia years to decades to recover politically, socially and economically from this. They've been shamed and isolated now, and this will set the country back enormously.
2 - The oligarchs are losing money, big time. They won't like that. At all. And they know that Putin has a LOT of money. They will be more than happy to take it from him to make up for their losses.
3 - Military leaders care about honor. Even Russian ones. They aren't stupid, their honor is being crushed by invading Ukraine at all.
4 - If they are unable to achieve a clear military victory, then it shows their military as weak. This will also piss off the Russian military leadership. And let's face it, Ukraine is not going to roll over. There will be guerilla war forever, even if the Russians possibly win in the short run.
5 - The public is already protesting and this will likely only get worse. Many of them have relatives in Ukraine. Few will consider Ukraine as an enemy.

At some point, the military and the oligarchs are going to realize that Putin is a more of a liability to them than a benefit, on a personal level. Russia's history is filled with leaders being overthrown and blamed for all the ills that were in place. The generals and oligarchs will see at some point, if they haven't already, that their best bet is to eliminate him, blame it all on him, hand some of Putin's wealth to Ukraine as reparations, give up as much info as they dare to on Putin's screwing around with the West, as a part of trying to save face and get the sanctions removed. Putin is only as powerful as the guy holding the guns for him. That guy decides not to, it's over. No elections, no SCOTUS, no court battles.

I know this is possibly a pipe dream, but I have a feeling this is about to all come to a head. Maybe a head on a pike. Maybe sooner than anyone thinks.

[JohnSJ]

1. Unfortunately, not likely

[smirkymonkey]

7. Why not?

What is your reasoning?

I really don't think that Putin is the all-powerful strongman that he tries to make everyone think he is. He, like Trump, is all ego and bluster. He might be a little smarter and more savvy, but he's not infallible.

[relayerbob]

8. As I said, he's only as strong as the guy holding his gun

[smirkymonkey]

14. +1000

[JohnSJ]

9. Sure he is. Just look at xi in China, Kim NK, they are all autocrats for life.

[relayerbob]

11. Very different societies and situations

Especially Xi. He has clearly and substantially improved the standard of living of the Chinese people, and most probably are willing to tolerate him, and probably agree with him. n both NK and China, we are talking generations of control. Russia isn't like that. Look at Stalin's legacy in Russia after he fell, Romanov, Yeltsin, basically all of Communism when Gorbashev took over. Russia is inherently unstable and far more corrupt than either China or NK.

[smirkymonkey]

13. Hey, the craziest person in the world is the scariest person in the world.

Some combination of insanity, family connections, money, power and ruthlessness got them to where they are today. But I don't think a majority of people honestly respect these men or would choose them as rulers if they weren't forced upon them.

If everyone in their societies, including those who enforce the punishment, all at once decided at the same time that these men were nothing but worthless, inept buffoons (and they pretty much are), and started laughing their asses off them, their power would be gone overnight. They are nothing in themselves. There is nothing innately admirable about them except for their ability to intimidate and terrorize people.

That is all they have. Take that away, and they are weak, pathetic little nobodies,which is why they have such a will to power. To cover up all of their childish insecurities.

[blue-wave]

59. Very different situation

Putin is the only one who has moved his country into what is obviously a very unpopular war. And it's only day 2. Wait until wallets go empty, hunger starts to set in and the body bags come home. They might have something to say about it.

[iemanja]

17. Looks like he's pretty successfully taking the Ukraine

for one.

[TiberiusB]

23. You may want to take it down a notch

I get that everyone is stressed out over the situation in Ukraine, but pointing out the current situation is "sticking up for him"?

You may be sure of your hypothetical future, but that doesn't negate what appears to be present day reality.

[smirkymonkey]

36. Well he's hardly "Taking 'the Ukraine' "

Just that term "the Ukraine" tells me something.

He's trying, but so far he has only really managed to make inroads into the predominantly Russian regions of the nation, which isn't much. Sorry, but it really makes me angry to see anyone here showing any kind of support for what Putin and the Russians are doing to the Ukrainians.

[live love laugh]

49. ✓+

[TiberiusB]

69. That's not support

That's observation. I've heard "the Ukraine" a thousand times. It's a common mistake and I seriously doubt there's hidden intent. It's not like when someone says "Democrat Party". Putin can take Ukraine in the sense that he can occupy it. The military imbalance and guaranteed reluctance of NATO to get directly involved virtually guarantee that outcome. Should he succeed, however, can he hold it? That's the real question. Is Putin prepared to endure a long guerrilla war should the people of Ukraine, a nation of about 44 million, choose to turn to fight him to the bitter end? Think of Iraq and how quickly we "won" that invasion, only to be unable to secure a lasting victory. Even now, Western banking interests are trying to slow walk sanctions to protect economic investments and keep the flow of gas/oil to Europe going. Will Putin be sanctioned directly? Can he be, given the billions in Russian oligarch money stashed around the word with various international banks? Is Putin aiming to drag this out in the belief that the Right in the U.S. will retake power in 2024 and gut NATO, or simply sit idle while he threatens other former U.S.S.R. satellites? This is an immensely complicated situation, but when it comes to tanks and boots on the ground, he has the short term advantage.

[iemanja]

66. Thank you

Honestly, it's a massive and inaccurate leap.

[anamnua]

48. Amen NT

[iemanja]

62. I'm not sticking up for him

Jesus Fucking Christ. Observing the situation in a war is not sticking up for the conqueror. The fact is that Russia's military is far more powerful than Ukraine's. I don't see how denying that helps Ukrainians. You do realize the West has made clear it will not enter into conflict over Ukraine? Does that mean the nations of Europe and the US mean they are sticking up for Putin too? And the majority of foreign policy analysts are up Putin's asshole, in your view?

If you can't learn to separate what you would like to happen from what is happening, that's a problem.

Where Putin would lose is if he invades a Nato country and the West adheres to its promises.

[anamnua]

63. Amen NT

[Joinfortmill]

31. Not so much. Russian soldiers are surrendering

[iemanja]

68. Time will tell

But it's not a match between equally strong militaries.

[relayerbob]

55. "The" Ukraine

OK, so much for your knowledge on the subject

[iemanja]

65. Russian and Ukranian have no articles

Using "the" was an invention of the West (you know, like THE United States of America or THE Netherlands), not the Soviet Empire. I try to make a practice of using Ukraine but the fact is it's not so easy to unlearn 6 decades of practice. The first time I have heard about the controversy using the article was this week. But this is a debate among Westerners only since there are no articles in Russian or Ukranian.

Spell check doesn't even recognize Ukraine as a proper word by itself.

Any more insults you want to hurl while you're at it?

[whopis01]

75. What spellchecker are you using?

None that I can find fails to recognize Ukraine as a proper word by itself.

[iemanja]

82. It's the grammar check

That appear automatically on my screen. A blue line appears under Ukraine.
I guess not all the time but it was the case in the post you are responding to.

[obamanut2012]

76. Spellcheck does so recognize Ukraine as a proper word by itself

wtf

[iemanja]

81. I get a blue line under it

The grammar check actually.

[Septua]

20. He's pretty damned powerful...

..I don't think Russia's constitution includes checks and balances.

[smirkymonkey]

38. You might have tried telling that to the Tsars and the aristocracy at one point only a century ago.

There is always a tipping point.

A few of them were lucky enough to escape only with the clothes on their backs, dependent upon the charity of European Royals and aristocratic family members. The rest were executed.

[Septua]

77. Well, that statement is incorrect.

(I'm about as dumb as Tuberville.) Technically, Russia's constitution provides separation of powers.

https://carnegieendowment.org/2001/01/09/is-there-separation-of-powers-in-russia-event-250

[uponit7771]

2. K&R, your number 4 is very important. If UKR bloodies Pootin's nose and still lose that's bad

... news for Russian power projection

[calimary]

30. Number 4 also explains why the Viet Cong eventually prevailed in North Vietnam.

[Straw Man]

50. I'd say they prevailed in ALL of Vietnam.

And let's not forget the People's Army of Vietnam, aka North Vietnamese Army (NVA), as distinct from the Viet Cong, who were an irregular guerrilla force that operated mainly in the south.

[calimary]

61. Sounds like you fought there.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

64. I did, 2 tours,

and he's right, we went into that war with the WWII mindset, large armies meeting on the battlefield, we were not prepared for a protracted guerrilla war, which the VC were very adept at.

We did eventually learn how to fight the VC, but by then, it was too late, the country had turned against the war, rightly so.

[calimary]

70. I went to peace rallies and hollered "Peace Now!"

I'm happy to say wherever I was, there was no bad behavior (at least that I saw), or disrespect shown or voiced. We just wanted the war ended so our soldiers could come home.

I kept thinking about the moms and the girlfriends. And the widows...

[MarineCombatEngineer]

71. +100.

Thank you for yours and everyone else's efforts to end the war, more than anything else, you helped end the war.
I salute you.

[calimary]

74. You did the hard part.

We all owe you for that.

[Straw Man]

67. No.

I pulled a high number in the draft lottery, and then it was over. Several classmates did, though. All but one made it back.

[CanonRay]

3. From your lips to Karmas ear

[Glorfindel]

4. "From your mouth to God's ears," as the saying goes

I hope it's sooner than anyone thinks. Thank you for sharing your insights, relayerbob!

[I-Scream]

5. I hope you're right. Best case is Putin's ouster. He has always played the "strong man game".

[El Supremo]

6. I was thinking the same thing.

Also NATO has justified its existence.

The Russian people will force Putin's exit just as they did Nicholas Romanov's.

[Mr.Bill]

18. The strength of NATO

is also making Trump look like an idiot at best or more likely a traitor for trying to dismantle it.

[DENVERPOPS]

29. I don't think Putin planned

on his own country's people demonstrating about his actions........

He has already arrested over a thousand, whose future is in question, but if that further infuriates his people and tens of thousands more demonstrate, they won't be able to handle it. Especially if the soldiers of the military join them.
If he goes after those people, the entire population will revolt against him.

If that happens, I hope someone in the Russian Military has the sense to hide the nuclear launch codes from him..........

[IggleDuer]

10. Retire.to Mierde a Lago?

Then kick the orange blob to the curb.

[Fiendish Thingy]

15. I think this will bring Putin down, but not likely soon. Nt

[Baked Potato]

16. I'm in agreement. I think it's a severe miscalculation by Putin. Nt

[Dan]

21. Without all the details, that is my thought too.

Putin must win, or he will die.

[BlueIdaho]

22. Would not be the first time a Russian leader

Suffered a sudden grave illness… Ending with a large State funeral.

[relayerbob]

35. They aren't exactly well-known for peaceful transfers of power

[WinstonSmith4740]

24. Don't really think it's a pipe dream.

You've made a lot of good points. I never thought he would go through with this, but as I told my sister, "I underestimated his crazy".

The oligarchs have gotten used to the good life and they ain't going back. I also don't think he anticipated the number of people willing to take to the streets. And then there's this: https://www.justsecurity.org/80149/retired-russian-generals-criticize-putin-over-ukraine-renew-call-for-his-resignation/
Of course, he won't resign because of this call to do so, but this is big. If his generals, even the retired ones, start to question him, he's toast.

[relayerbob]

33. Very interesting article

That can't be good news for Putin. Agreed, he will never resign, but the military may feel they have more support for action than they might otherwise

[smirkymonkey]

37. Yeah, the Romanoffs and their set didn't think they were going anywhere either.

Boy were they wrong. Not only was everything taken from them, but only a few of them were lucky enough to escape with their lives. History can repeat itself.

[skydive forever]

25. I hate to say it, but the devil you know...

[relayerbob]

34. Yeah, there is that

[Joinfortmill]

26. Yup. Sounds reasonable. Putin is insane.

[Takket]

27. i don't think Putin is very popular in Moscow........

but like drumpf he surrounds himself with impenetrable layers of yes men, strong men, KGB-types and sycophants. In short even if the people want him dead it would take a MASSIVE coordinated effort to get to him, and he surely has a 1001 escape routes.

Ukraine is going to fall the only real question is how much more difficult it is going to be than he expected. I hope Putin gets the bloody nose he deserves. Putin has completely committed his legacy to this operation. He has burned every bridge internationally except with his hard core supporters in the GOP here, and his puppet leaders in places like Belarus. This war will define Russia and Putin for the rest of his life.

Do I think there is enough anti-Putin support in Russia to start a revolution? Yeah. But those people are going to need to feel like they actually have a chance to win, to crack the layers of security Putin has insulated himself inside, to make a move. And I don't know if they will ever see that fight as anything but hopeless.

To the people of Ukraine, I hope you can find a way to save your way of life.

[relayerbob]

32. Those layers of security will be available for purchase

It only takes one guy, offered a few million dollars, to open the door for the military to take Putin out. I get what you're saying, but the bottom line, he's not just gambled his legacy, but that of the entire country. I'm not saying this is certain, by any means, but someone is going to want to take an exit ramp, and if that someone has the right connections ....

[SYFROYH]

28. Time to send a box of exploding cigars

[niyad]

40. Polonium tea.

[ToxMarz]

51. Maybe that's why they went to Chernobyl

wasn't on Putins orders.

[blue-wave]

53. Give him a taste of his own medicine!

[Septua]

39. Trump wanted to go back to 1950.

Putin has made up his mind to go back to an earlier time.

"In a lengthy essay penned in July 2021, Putin referred to Russians and Ukrainians as "one people," and suggested the West had corrupted Ukraine and yanked it out of Russia's orbit through a "forced change of identity."

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/24/europe/ukraine-russia-conflict-explainer-2-cmd-intl

Plus, Putin is a sociopath. Hitler, Stalin, Kim, were/are all sociopaths with absolute power. It would take a better planned and manned coup d' état attempt to unseat Putin than the one Trump had.

[L. Coyote]

41. "Russians will now feel the hatred of the world ...."

Link to tweet

[Dan]

42. But what all of us should do, promise ourselves

That we will not let those in the U.S. that supported Putin over the U.S. walk away from it - every chance we get we should remind them, the public, their supporters - that they supported Russia over the US.

[relayerbob]

58. [phone]

[bluedigger]

43. History has shown us that Russians are pretty good at throwing the bum out when they've had enough.

The problem is that there is always another bum.

[LiberalFighter]

44. Will they poison him? More effectively? Nah! They want to make sure the job is done.

[world wide wally]

45. Why do you think Putin sits 100 feet away from everyone?

[Initech]

46. The sooner he dies in a bunker the better.

I don't wish death on many people, but really he can fuck right off. And hopefully he takes Trump with him.

[quakerboy]

47. 4 is really the keystone

1 is fairly irrelevant as long as china is willing to work with them
2 putin is aware of this and likely more than willing to make them good. I do believe power is more important to him than greed. That's why hes running a country not a company.
3) That all depends on #4

4) If they win they win. IF they lose, then its a problem. But thats an If.

5 is also a big if. a thousand arrested is all at once a lot and not much. If demonstrators outnumber the ability to arrest them, if police refuse to take on their fellow citizens, if Military members decline to serve.. maybe. But thats a lot of if's.

[argyl]

72. I don't see China being too faithful to this alliance of convenience.

They're now standing with a country that's been rebuked and reviled by almost every country on earth.

This is a lot more than they planned on.

[quakerboy]

73. time will tell

I think they are still looking at this as a win win. Either US gets involved and theres opportunity in taiwan. Or russia pushes forward and eventually gets booted from swift, and they get a major captive client for the thing they are itching to replace it with. Probably lots of other things as well.

[bahboo]

52. inshallah.....

[The Unmitigated Gall]

54. Another Ceaucescu would be nice

I’d love to see him against a wall, looking dazed and uncertain as he faces the squad about to end his tome on earth.

[MartyTheGreek]

56. You're on to something... Head of Russian Tactical Unit surrendered today! n/t

[AdamGG]

57. I hope you're right and that Zelensky gets out in time

A heroic stand is a good thing, but before being killed or captured, I hope Zelensky has a chance to become the democratically elected leader in exile, so that when the tide turns against Putin, there is an unquestioned leader to rally around and restore to power.

That's such an obvious thing, that I fear that he's on a Russian kill list if they capture him.

[blue-wave]

60. I agree 100%

Putin has, as his bestest American friend would say, "bigly" miscalculated.

[OnDoutside]

78. Interesting Twitter thread that expands on a similar scenario

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497114464176463880.html

Link to tweet

Someone just asked me how long I think the war will last. Well - it depends on your definition really.

Of course, nobody really knows... but what I anticipate is as follows.

1. Kyiv falls within days. Zelensky is likely killed. A puppet government is installed.
2. The rest of Ukraine also falls - in a manner of speaking - within weeks. But...

3. That's when the guerilla fighting really kicks in. With Russia, claiming to be in 'control', sustaining constant casualties which undermine Putin back home.
4. Western sanctions steadily ratchet up. Nobody other than rogue states recognise the puppet government; the Russian economy falls into ever greater disrepair; the already appalled Russian people become gradually more and more fed up.


5. If - and it's a big if - China calculates that Russia has gone too far and Putin is finished, it might, maybe, step in to help Europe with its desperate energy needs. So might Qatar.

6. Ultimately, Putin is forced out by furious Russian billionaires and/or the army.
The spin will be that he has retired because of 'ill health'. Which for once, will actually be true.

7. None of the sanctions will be lifted until Russia fully withdraws from Ukraine, and is made to pay substantial reparations. Not difficult given the assets seized.
8. Ukraine, restored to independence, joins NATO.

9. A deeply chastened Russia falls back, an eternally reduced power, and ends up geopolitically dominated by China.

I do not believe Putin will go after the Baltic states. If he does, I think his generals will step in.
But we're talking years here. This is a long, long, long haul. Even the EU won't be able to implement the most draconian sanctions until it has found enough alternative supplies of energy.

This will accelerate the need for pipelines from Qatar. But that won't happen overnight.
Qatar has contractual obligations to other parts of the world which it will not break.

In the meantime, inflation and energy prices will rise further, worsening the cost of living crisis and likely undermining any government in charge of countries experiencing that.
That'll likely be good for Labour in Britain. Bad for the Democrats in the US.

We must all prepare for devastating scenes over the next few days and weeks. Mass panic. Demands for the impossible from people horrified at what they'll see.

And hot takes that Putin has 'won'.
But he won't ultimately win. Just as neither Bush nor Blair, contrary to their initial 'mission accomplished' claims, ultimately won in Iraq either.

The downfall of Vladimir Putin commenced when he ordered the invasion of Ukraine.
Because nobody will say boo to a goose around them for obvious reasons, all long term dictators lose touch with reality and go mad.

I think he genuinely *believes* Ukraine is run by 'Nazis'. And thus that Russian forces would be welcomed by Ukrainians with open arms.

He's got another think coming on that. His warped view of history means he thought this campaign would be low risk. And that the West would not follow through with its threats.

In reality, he's turned his country into a pariah state. Destroyed its international reputation.
When dictatorships are internationally isolated by sanctions, they always erode from within.

That was actually happening in Saddam's Iraq for years before our idiotic invasion; so much so that he pretended to have WMD to preserve his 'strongman' status.
Instead, polycratic chaos ruled.

We always imagine that dictators have full domestic control. When things go wrong for their economies and societies, they no longer do.

The very same polycratic chaos developed in Nazi Germany as it started losing the war too.
Hitler and Saddam went down in infamy. So, in the end, will Putin.

But as with all humanity's worst, most dire conflicts, it'll all take considerable time first. Too much time, tragically, for so many brave heroes in Ukraine.
Slava Ukraini! Heroiam slava!

Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!

[Lucid Dreamer]

79. Maybe... maybe... who the hell knows.

OnDoutside>

The downfall of Vladimir Putin commenced when he ordered the invasion of Ukraine.
Because nobody will say boo to a goose around them for obvious reasons, all long term dictators lose touch with reality and go mad.

This has been in the back of my mind as an explanation of Putin's actions for a couple of days.
I think he has suffered some sort of defect... maybe his health is falling off a cliff. Maybe natural, maybe induced by enemies, maybe dementia...
I'm not sure but the actions he has taken don't seem to arise from good mental or physical health.

-- I am not a doctor.

[relayerbob]

80. Very plausible

[Skittles]

83. he was interrupted by Covid and then by Biden voters

he was supposed to have Trump in his pocket