Some good news on Russian convoys:

[Tomconroy]

Link to tweet

Video in the thread.

[True Dough]

1. That is good news

But I feel like you're a little too close to the story, OP.

Convoy

Conroy

Hmm...

[lagomorph777]

3. Right?

[honest.abe]

2. This looks significant although I suspect the Rooskies have alot more coming.

Just a warning.. at least one of the videos shows a dead Russian soldier that is rather disturbing.

[Happy Hoosier]

14. The Russians have never been good at logistics.

A couple of Russologists have noted that Russian military doctrine has always emphasized "head" over "tail." and frankly a bits odd since any serious military strategist will tell you that logistics matters more than anything.

But logistics are hard. Timing and coordinating logistical elements to be close enough to combat elements to provide resupply when needed but not vulnerable to enemy interdiction is what separates the pros from the wannabes. Even the U.S. which arguablly has the most sophisticated logistics system in the world sometimes blows it.

Couple that with shitty morale in the Russian Army and it is a volatile arrangement. There is nothing scarier to a tanker than being stuck, unable to move, because they are out of fuel. Add in food shortages and the picture can turn ugly quickly. Even U.S. sources are now saying there is considerable evidence of some Russian units surrendering without a fight. They don;t want to be meat for Putin's grinder, and they don't want to kill Ukrainians.

[honest.abe]

16. Interesting but I suppose not surprising they would value "head" over "tail".

Probably just an arrogant macho thing to dismiss the boring less glamourous support functions.

[Happy Hoosier]

22. Possibly. And it feeds the Russian doctrine of overwhelming force.

Back in the Cold War there were frequent discussion of quality vs quantity. There was a general acknowledgment that Western forces were of better quality, both in equipment and training, but the counter argument was that "quantity is a quality all its own."

In WWII, the Russians defeated the technically and tactically superior Nazis with sheer quantity. They literally threw bodies and equipment at the Nazis until they were overwhelmed. When fighting defensively, this is not that much of a logistical challenge. On the advance, it's much harder. But by the time the Soviets were advancing on the Nazis, they Nazis were already pretty much beaten up and the Russians were passing through areas where their supply lines were not really at risk from partisan attacks.

The situation the Russians are facing now is not something they have very much experience with. They attempting a massive advancement through unfriendly territory against a foe that is highly motivated to resist.

They have massive force and could still yet prevail, but the weaknesses in the fabric of their forces are very apparent. I guarantee you the Pentagon is working overtime analyzing every aspect of this debacle and feeding that information right to the Ukrainians.

[honest.abe]

27. Yes, that totally makes sense as well.

[COL Mustard]

17. You can't get far without gasoline

Patton wanted 400,000 gallons a day in 1944. It ain't better today.

And fuel trucks are relatively easy to knock out. There's your Molotov cocktail, comrade!

[Mr. Evil]

4. That 40 mile long convoy

of Russian personnel and armaments approaching Ukraine is an air force commander's dream. It could easily be turned into a 40 mile long swath of destruction.

[groundloop]

6. I don't get why that hasn't happened yet.

It seems that a few well placed cruise missiles or drone strikes would render that convoy dead in the water.

[Mr. Evil]

9. I'm no military strategist but,

I've been wondering the same thing ever since it was first reported.

[DenaliDemocrat]

11. I think snow is in the forecast

Probably waiting for low cloud cover to give some protection and then hammer them hard.

[AdamGG]

7. Unfortunately, the Russians know that they control the air space

which is probably why they're willing to use this formation.

[Mr. Evil]

10. My understanding is that they're about 15-20 miles north of Kiev.

Which is still Ukrainian airspace. It would be a good opportunity to show the Russians that they only think they control the airspace. They're sitting ducks and a huge opportunity to take a giant shit on the Russians will be sadly missed. Drones maybe? Javelins? Cruise missiles?

[L. Coyote]

13. For one, it is NOT a 40-mile-long convoy. Two, fog of war?

They were 40 miles from Kyiv when it was parked and 3.5 miles long. When it began moving it stretched out some 17 km.

Russian military convoy stretches over 17 miles north of Kiev.

[Mr. Evil]

20. Just going by what's been reported.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/03/01/russian-military-convoy-more-than-40-miles-long-sciutto-intl-ac360-dnt-vpx.cnn

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/01/russian-military-convoy-nears-kyiv-00012759

https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/-40-mile-long-russian-military-convoy-approaching-ukraine-capital-134291525575

[L. Coyote]

24. Good illustration of the "fog of war" problem. Verify, do not trust.

And it was quite easy to verify by looking at the satellite photos. Apparently, no one in the major US outlets is taking the time to do so, they are repeating propaganda. Congress is making a major decision about aid to Ukraine while this false information is being treated as fact. That is a problem.

[oldsoftie]

29. MSNBC just reported last hr "40 mile long convoy"

[L. Coyote]

33. Yes, and that is simply false.

[oldsoftie]

36. I was thinking this morning that it sounded kinda crazy big

40 MILES would have to be thousands of vehicles
Being smaller would explain why it hasn't already been attacked

[jaxexpat]

37. Misinformation becomes "fact" when repeated.

When asked for substantiation of his assertions re: Saddam's WMD's, Dick Cheney quoted the NY Times to support his justification for the Bush Co. Iraq war push. The Times had previously written about the things Cheney had been saying, soooooo Cheney just referenced the NY Times quoting him. Aaaaaand suddenly, it became a brand-new baby FACT (a NY Times fact, have a cigar). It became obvious then, to anyone paying attention, that people can be just as stupid as you want them to be.

That convoy could have been a film crew for a war re-enactment.............Right? I mean it was dark. What's the difference between a kilometer and a mile among friends, after all? Heck, they looked Russian. How did the 17 mile number come up? Some guy thinks that it took about an hour for them to pass him and they appeared to be going about 17 mph, sooooooo, there you go. Were they bumper to bumper? Were they using both southbound lanes? Did they look grim and determined or scared and pensive? or maybe sad like, maybe on the verge of tears. They seemed hungry, they looked hungry. The reporter said HE had been hungry, earlier but he ate a bit and it got better.

Fog of war vs the pettifoggery of peace. Which grabs the most headlines or keeps the attention span? Pat "700 Club" Robinson figures Putin must be the anti-Christ for Christ's sake. Well, that's one we can check off.

[KS Toronado]

23. Thanks for the link

[yellowcanine]

21. May be a fiction. Aeschylus -- 'In war, truth is the first casualty.'

[Mr. Evil]

25. And lies are the first weapon.

Putin: We're denazifying Ukraine.

Sure thing Pootie. You attack a sovereign nation without provocation just like Hitler did with Poland and France and Ukraine are the Nazi's. What a fuck-ton load of bullshit!

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

34. It was never a 40 mile long convoy.

It was maybe four miles long, and 40 miles from somewhere.

[Native]

35. BBC World News just had an expert on that explained that

It has to do with the type of aircraft the Ukrainians have. They don't have the smart guided missiles, so they would have to get in really low to hit their targets, and the convoy has ground to air missiles that would take them out quite easily. It basically would make no sense for the Ukrainians to attack from the air.

[Mr. Evil]

41. Well, shit.

I didn't really know the capabilities of their air power. That just sucks. Thanx for the info.

[Native]

42. The newscaster was surprised at this as well. Said it was the first time he'd heard that.

[eppur_se_muova]

39. Remember the road out of Kuwait ?

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[liberalla]

5. K&R

[Beastly Boy]

8. This is classic partisan warfare. Avoid the armed units and cut their supply lines.

It already began, and this is something that Russian invaders can expect for as long as they stay in Ukraine.

[Cyrano]

12. Ukraine needs a few dozen missle-carrying drones.

I mean, really. How long would it take us to get these effective weapons to them?

Such drones could almost immediately render Russian tanks and armored vehicles useless. And they wouldn't even need to target the Russians. All they'd need to do is destroy the roads ahead of them. (Tanks and any vehicles with treads don't do well in mud.)

Why haven't we done this? Why aren't we doing it now (and so much more).

The Russian military seems to be a Potemkin Army. (Google Potemkin. It's an empty facade to hide that there's no there there.)

Now, Putin is trying to use his "nuclear card." A country with nuclear weapons has no need to mention that. Seems Vlad is becoming aware that he's fucked up. So there's only one question left. Is he crazy enough to actually start a nuclear war in which there are no winners?

[Old Crank]

15. Every foot past the Russian border is behind Russian lines.

They can be attacked and dogged from all sides once they cross the boarder.

Wonder how m any generals will be sent packing by Putin after this botch job.

[COL Mustard]

19. Reverse your last sentence and you're probably more correct

Wonder how many generals will send Putin packing after this botch job.

[roamer65]

18. Wolverines!

[Marcuse]

26. Redux

[oldsoftie]

30. The effectiveness of the A-10 & attack helicopters is amazing.

We have the best pilots in the world

[Tomconroy]

28. At the background Pentagon press briefing this morning

They said the big convoy hasn't moved for over a day. It's 30km from Kyiv.

[Joinfortmill]

31. We need to do more

[Historic NY]

32. Get the gas truck and it all stops.

[Demovictory9]

38. Excellent.

[csziggy]

40. Plus, I've seen two different videos of different tractors towing off tanks

Regular old farm tractors tooling down the road with tanks is not something I ever expected to see!