No, You're Not Imagining It: Russia's Army Is Inept

[Dial H For Hero]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/no-you-re-not-imagining-it-russia-s-army-is-inept/ar-AAUqQkD?ocid=msedgntp

After four days of fighting, the Russian military is bogged down in Ukraine. In part this is due to the valiant resistance of Ukraine’s army and civilian defense forces. But it’s also due to the fact that the Russian army just isn’t very good.

News reports, tweets, videos, and emails from the battlefields show Russia’s armored vehicles abandoned for lack of fuel, its soldiers foraging for food, its transport planes shot out of the sky, its various military elements—tanks, infantry, aircraft—unable to coordinate their aims.

Michael Kofman, a military analyst at CNA, an Arlington, Va.-based think tank, who has been following the battle closely, tweeted Sunday late afternoon, “It’s taken me a while to figure out what [the Russian military is] trying to do, because it looks so ridiculous and incompetent.” B.A. Friedman, a military historian and tactician, went further: “This isn’t a good army executing a bad plan. It isn’t a good army executing outdated or out-of-context tactics. It’s a bad army!”

None of this should be overstated. Four days of fighting might seem an eternity when viewed through the prism of round-the-clock cable news, but, in retrospect, a month from now, it will seem like the blink of an eye. Even the best armies take a while to get going. That said, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been particularly sluggish and flawed.

(Excerpt)

[SheltieLover]

1. Vlad has never fought a real war. Only those akin to bullies on playground.

[Danascot]

62. I know! I know!

Putin outsourced the battle plan to Trump and his cronies.

[fightforfreedom]

2. That's what I see.

A weak, incompetent military who has powerful weapons. They can cause massive damage but they have bad leadership, bad moral, weak supply lines, etc.

[LakeArenal]

3. Wow who thought his saber rattling would lead to his demise.

Poor Ukraine had to prove he’s a loser.

[CentralMass]

4. That is a dangerous take on what is going on here.

[ruet]

8. Seems Pretty Spot On.

None of this should be overstated. Four days of fighting might seem an eternity when viewed through the prism of round-the-clock cable news, but, in retrospect, a month from now, it will seem like the blink of an eye. Even the best armies take a while to get going.

The PR campaign must be taken advantage of fully though in case Russia does gets thier shite together. Which, given sufficient time, they probably will.

[CentralMass]

19. I say that it is irrelevant. Putin has a non stop assault of Ukraine going on that he has no plans

of stopping until he achieves his objectives. It is clearly a restrained attack because Russia has no shortages of troops and weapons. The end result has been devastating to Ukraine so far.

[ruet]

27. "Irrelevant" and "Dangerous" Are Two Diametrically Opposed Classifications.

Not wanting to get bogged on in the minutia of such things, I agree with the rest of your analysis. In fact, I have a nagging feeling that Zelinsky and the West are on the verge of an overreach of their own.

[Wingus Dingus]

36. Of course it's devastating, and Russia will probably win. I don't think

we're delusional. We know they're willing to throw their young men into a meat grinder in large numbers, they have a vast (one of the biggest) stockpile of military equipment, bombs, artillery, planes, etc. AND they're willing to take Ukraine down to rubble to "save" it. AND they aren't being troubled or hindered by normal rules of warfare. Most of us know this.

[COL Mustard]

54. I think the Russians will eventually claim some sort of military victory

In order to save face. But they've lost the strategic victory. Their military has been shown to be in a shambles, and they have completely lost control of the message on social media. They've been exposed totally. To say this is a shitshow is the understatement of the century.

[Wingus Dingus]

59. I'm sure they will. They aren't going to be humbled, there's no

period of regret and introspection and soul-searching coming. That's not how they roll.

[gab13by13]

9. I agree with you.

[PortTack]

12. No it isn't. The Ukrainians aren't taking it lightly, just taking advantage of it

https://vm.tiktok.com/TTPdSGhqvL/

Other military experts from Malcolm Nance to Wesley Clark are saying the same. Outdated equipment, poorly trained soldiers, tanks and other ground equipment date to the 60s.

[OMGWTF]

61. Long retired US Army tank operators are instructing the Ukrainians on the Russian tank's weak spots.

Because that's what they were trained to fight back in the day.

[PJMcK]

13. Could you explain what you mean?

Thanks, in advance.

[CentralMass]

26. Putin has a non-stop and a relatively low level attack given Russian military capability going on.

I think that at least do far it has allowed him to force a mass refuge situation and mounting collateral damage including destruction of vital infrastructure. He is not going to stop abd his do called incompetent miltary attack causing great harm to Ukraine.

[Happy Hoosier]

16. They have a lot of raw power, but...

They are clearly having trouble here. Logistics suck, morale is low, and they are not meeting objectives. It's hard to see this as anything other than a giant clusterfuck. That doesn't mean they won't, or can't win. But it's clear that they are not the well-oiled machine some have touted.

[Kaleva]

34. What do you mean? No where in the article does it say the Russians are going to lose.

[dchill]

49. It's not the "take" that's dangerous. It's the fact of it.

[ffr]

57. I agree with CM. Another factor in this is that at least some R soldiers

don't want to kill Ukrainians. Whether moral or religious in their reasoning, it's not hard to contemplate why they would be so willing to surrender or even stall their own "offensive" advancement.

If you turn the tables and you put them in a defensive posture, defending Russian soil, you better believe they will do so proudly, professionally, and to the last man, just as the Ukrainians are doing.

[ZonkerHarris]

63. if you read the whole article it says Russia will still win but at a cost.

[ck4829]

5. The rot starts at the head and goes on down

Putin and his inner circle didn't hire and promote people based on merit, they hired and promoted people based on sycophancy.

Even if those sycophants were people who also you know billed the government for 2 barrels of oil when they bought just one, who said they bought new cars for the government but were sure to roll back the meters, who filled a jerry can with gasoline meant for government usage when they told the government they filled two, they told the government they bought new lumber when they just went down to the junkyard, etc.

[maxsolomon]

6. "News reports, tweets, videos, and emails from the battlefields"

I'd imagine that NATO/US has much better intelligence, but there's an awful lot of anecdotes and not much information I trust.

This feels correct:

None of this should be overstated. Four days of fighting might seem an eternity when viewed through the prism of round-the-clock cable news, but, in retrospect, a month from now, it will seem like the blink of an eye. Even the best armies take a while to get going.

[dchill]

50. So much for "blitzkrieg," eh?

[maxsolomon]

53. IDK. How long is a Blitzkrieg?

How long did it take for the US to take Baghdad? 26 days.

Russia is on Day 5 or 6...

[dchill]

55. Lightning.

[Wingus Dingus]

7. I have heard that

Russia's military officers are trained differently than ours (meaning, not as good)--very different culture, especially at the junior officer level. Not much training or value placed on independent decision-making, concerning changing circumstances on the ground. I guess we're seeing that play out this week.

[sarisataka]

38. Their junior officers

Are more like our NCOs, focused on small unit leadership. Their NCOs primarily are enforcers, making the troops follow the officer's orders.

At all levels Russian doctrine discourages initiative; they plan comes from higher HQ detailed down to company level or lower and is to be followed without deviation.

By contrast, the US HQ will give its lower level units objectives and leave the lower unit to come up with a plan to complete its portion. Initiative is encouraged to take advantage of unforseen opportunities. An American Corporal has more ability to act on his own than a Russian Major.

While the Russian method allows overwhelming force to eventually crush opposition, the US method accepts higher risks for a more rapid victory.

[Wingus Dingus]

41. Yes, this is a good synopsis of what I have been told.

[electric_blue68]

10. For now? More seasoned troops arriving?

[Wingus Dingus]

21. What demented military leader would send in his noobs and incompetents first to

establish supply lines, take and hold territory, establish communication, establish medical facilities...and on top of that, earn the extreme bad will of the people you are trying to "convert" to being part of your regime with misdirected shelling... and on top of THAT...looking like you don't have your shit together on the world stage? Maybe Sergei Shoigu is going to fall out of a window soon?

[electric_blue68]

35. The Generals or Window option look good to me.

I'm not totally Ignorant about warfare and you make sense

Not being glib..I'm 2gen half Ukrainian American
I probably have unknown cousins. (my dad an only child
but his father at least had a brother so ???

I've watching stuff on & off since Thurs 😥 and not doing more of what I should have been doing which is causing me problems ..

So, yeah....

[Wingus Dingus]

39. It's tough to watch for anyone with a moral compass,

but I imagine especially so for those of you of Ukrainian descent. (Half Polish-American here--so my sympathies naturally lie with Ukraine in any event.)

[electric_blue68]

68. Didn't have my cellphone (w wifi) for a week+

It's so sad.

My dad (then I) would get (maybe I'll go down there this Easter [ not past 2 yrs] covid) great keilbasa from the Polish Meat Deli down in "Little Ukraine"' in NYC's East Village.

I'll check before I travel down there. 👍

[MerryHolidays]

11. What they do have is the ability to throw massive numbers of troops at an invasion like this

And they do have materiel superiority. I agree that this is not the best military in the world, but it is obviously an extremely dangerous situation as Ukraine does not have the benefit of the NATO pacts.

[mitch96]

23. " throw massive numbers of troops".. That was their M.O. in WW2.. Just throw lots of

Tanks, planes and bodies at the problem.. Russia lost the most in WW2, I think they will loose a lot in Ukraine also.ymmv
m

[Wingus Dingus]

24. Yes, sheer numbers of men and weapons, and no scruples, will be the problem.

If they win, they will win UGLY.

[jaxexpat]

51. So Russia throws meat into the grinder.

It's not the best meat but there's plenty of it.

"Da, throwing is hard work. I'm hungry so I could eat tank crew. Who's for pizza?"

[roamer65]

14. Conscript armies usually are inept at hard fighting.

Remember Saddam’s army from the first Gulf War?

[Kaleva]

30. Majority of Americans who fought in WW2 were conscripted

[ruet]

37. Apples and Bowling Balls. -NT-

[Kaleva]

42. WWII shows that conscripted troops can fight hard

Same with the Civil War and WWI

[Beachnutt]

15. The Ukraine military leaders are

getting intelligence and fighting tactics from many well trained seasoned military Generals from several countries so just maybe they have been advised to just let the convoy sit and stack up and then other countries will supply armaments to wipe it all out at one time and reduce putins military to be ineffective for years to come.

[JoanofArgh]

17. Mark Hertling, the retired General of US Army Europe , who spent time in Russia

said that Russia's military leaders are inept because they're political appointments by Putin. They're not chosen for their military expertise.

[Carlitos Brigante]

20. I could totally see that. nt

[JoanofArgh]

29. Yep, like Trump, Putin's only concern is loyalty. These autocrats are all the same.

[Carlitos Brigante]

32. As soon as I read this, I thought; "Hmmm, who does this remind

me of?.... No, not Carrot Top....... not Stephen hawking either.... who could it be?...".

[lindysalsagal]

25. Exactly my assumption: We give them too much credit, thinking they're as good as us.

I assume it's just a job, and they're only good at rounding up people who are unable to fight back. This time, the whole world is supporting them and they're effing fighting back, and the russians have NO experience in this.

[dalton99a]

18. There is corruption and thievery at every level

[honest.abe]

22. "ridiculous and incompetent" He should have added "savage and barbaric"

The Russians have sunk to new lows from which they may never recover.

[Dial H For Hero]

28. The WW2 Russians would like a word.

As terrible as the current war is, the behavior of the Soviet Army in WW2 was considerably worse.

[honest.abe]

31. Give em time... this ugly war is not over yet.

Very likely more and worse atrocities to come.

[Dial H For Hero]

43. World War II, tragically, set a very high bar.

Just one example: As they took Germany, Soviet troops committed the largest mass rape in human history, raping (in a Soviet correspondent’s own words) almost every girl and woman there from age 8 to 80.

[honest.abe]

45. I was not aware of all that.

Thanks.

[Dave in VA]

33. Yes, but Cancun Cruise thought they were the best of the best, remember?

https://www.indy100.com/news/ted-cruz-russia-propaganda-military-b1851261

Fucking traitor!

[BlackSkimmer]

40. Putin really miscalculated this whole thing.

He’s made his country and his military strength look pathetic.

[peggysue2]

44. Also read that Russia's Department of Defense chief . . .

was replaced for being too insistent that defense funding be used more effectively, that corruption within the system was hobbling the military's ability to function properly and, more importantly, be prepared for a major conflict.

He ticked off too many monied, political types and was pushed out, replaced by a man who decided to avoid his predecessor's unpopular stances and proclamations. Everything went back to the fudging, corruption and thieves being able to steal without criticism or penalty.

And here we are.

When I read the background on these men, I was reminded of Hitler's aide Martin Bormann, another bureaucrat who told his boss what he wanted to hear and (though a dedicated Nazi) was self-serving first, a skilled player within Mein Fuhrer's inner circle.

History rhyming one more time.

[Whiskeytide]

46. I think Putin has been attempting a slow moving take over to ...

… minimize civilian casualties and significant damage to the infrastructure. He doesn’t want Ukraine to be razed. Civilian casualties look bad internationally, and he doesn’t want to damage the country’s economic value any more than he has to.

As he looks more and more inept at this effort, however, I suppose he may ramp up the savagery of the assault to end the embarrassment.

But this analysis is straight out of the “hunch” portion of my butt.

[COL Mustard]

58. I would imagine the Ukrainians

Would employ scorched earth tactics if they have to give ground / cities. Nothing to occupy, comrades. May as well go home.

[jrandom421]

47. And the lessons from history are hammered in again

Who knew we’d get such a public object lesson on the importance of those boring subjects of logistics, maintenance, intelligence, personnel development, training, security, morale building, civil affairs, leadership development, and discipline.

[Hortensis]

48. An expert described the Russian soldiers as underfed. (!)

Underfed and underpaid is what he said, but the latter I took as a given for an underdeveloped authoritarian country with widespread poverty compared to advanced nations.

Russia's military might may more than make up for any amount of malnutrition, so Putin may disagree, but underfeeding soldiers seems intrinsically inept.

[TomDaisy]

52. his main weapon was fear and threats but Zelensky said the Emperor has no clothes

[Fla Dem]

56. A blink of an eye in time maybe, but an eternity for those that lost loved ones.

[Bobstandard]

60. I urge caution re this notion

I continue to find it hard to believe the Russian army is this inept. Somewhere in the ranks there are competent troops and commanders. Plus, armies have pride. It’s pos, even likely those factors will come into play and the complexion of this war will change.

Finally, war making is, in the final analysis, all about numbers. Russia has a bigger army. They can take greater losses. This horrible calculation argues on their side.

I hope this initial ineptitude give Ukraines admirers time to supply them with arms etc that tip the balance

Better yet, some Russian assassinates Putin and this whole thing can end

[jrandom421]

65. Not happening

Even airborne and spetnaz units thrown into the fight have been either been chopped up or have surrended. It's been pretty ugly all the way around.

[Bobstandard]

67. And may that continue! N/t

[Buckeyeblue]

64. I think Putin's strength is his ability to bluff

He got called on this bet and had to show the world that he has nothing. My guess is that he and a select few have been pocketing money that should have gone to keep a strong 21st century military. Sounds like something Trump would have done if he was able.

I bet the nukes are old, haven't been maintained and may or may not fire.

I think the timing is perfect to try to take out Putin. It's worth the shot (pun intended).

[HAB911]

66. It's a shithole country