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drray23

(7,711 posts)
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 02:31 PM Mar 2022

Is there a trigger for actual military intervention ?

I know that we don't want to get involved directly for fear of triggering an all out war. I do wonder if that calculus changes if Putin starts mass killings by leveling cities with millions of people in it like Kyiv and Kharkiv.

Do we just stand there watching, wearing sunflowers and blue and yellow or does this motivates NATO to establish air superiority to stop it ? We did it during the Bosnian wars over Sarajevo.

It all hinges on whether or not western powers believe Putin would use nukes if we ground his air force over Ukraine.

30 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Is there a trigger for actual military intervention ? (Original Post) drray23 Mar 2022 OP
Not a pre-defined public one, certainly. MineralMan Mar 2022 #1
Yes, is there any point at which we help Ukraine? Irish_Dem Mar 2022 #2
What do you think we should be doing? Ocelot II Mar 2022 #5
Yes of course. I am not foolish. But I will not be happy watching wholesale slaughter. Irish_Dem Mar 2022 #7
We are not doing nothing. Did you not hear Biden's SOTU? Ocelot II Mar 2022 #10
I don't mean banking help. I mean direct and immediate help to save lives now. Irish_Dem Mar 2022 #11
So what should be done, and how? Ocelot II Mar 2022 #12
You aren't intimately involved in US international relations and Laura PourMeADrink Mar 2022 #15
We ARE helping Ukraine. Military supplies, intelligence, economic and diplomatic sanctions on RU mathematic Mar 2022 #25
NATO involvement for now. Or Russia directly attacks us. haele Mar 2022 #3
Not one that relates to Ukraine. Zero. David__77 Mar 2022 #4
This is the pivotal question for our time. Big Blue Marble Mar 2022 #6
Have felt this for days now. Sadly it seems like a given Laura PourMeADrink Mar 2022 #8
That's the thing. We don't need any boot on the ground. drray23 Mar 2022 #9
Could we? Ocelot II Mar 2022 #16
They do... and we have ways of dealing with that. Happy Hoosier Mar 2022 #19
I'm sure they are considering all options. drray23 Mar 2022 #23
Ridiculous. That would mean shooting down Russian aircraft. tritsofme Mar 2022 #22
Maybe something like Pearl Harbor. ananda Mar 2022 #13
I don't think we want another Pearl Harbor. .n/t. whathehell Mar 2022 #20
I honestly don't think we can guess at that. ificandream Mar 2022 #14
That's one of the things that bugs me. Happy Hoosier Mar 2022 #17
I agree. For example what if Putin starts using tactical nucs drray23 Mar 2022 #24
The sad truth is that they don't need nukes to level a city. Crunchy Frog Mar 2022 #28
Volunteer fighter regiments are being organized in many countries. Beastly Boy Mar 2022 #18
Why doesn't Putin attack them? Saw video of servicemen Laura PourMeADrink Mar 2022 #26
Too small is one plausible explanation. Beastly Boy Mar 2022 #29
Russia isn't a minor Third World or Middle East country we can invade without much jalan48 Mar 2022 #21
The trigger is if they set one foot onto NATO territory. Crunchy Frog Mar 2022 #27
I wonder if cyber-attacks are now a formal part of 'an attack on NATO' Torchlight Mar 2022 #30

MineralMan

(146,620 posts)
1. Not a pre-defined public one, certainly.
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 02:36 PM
Mar 2022

If there is such a trigger, it is certainly not being publicized.

No doubt there is some sort of trigger, but we won't know about it until it is pulled.

Irish_Dem

(53,007 posts)
2. Yes, is there any point at which we help Ukraine?
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 02:37 PM
Mar 2022

Or do we sit on our hands while wearing blue and yellow?

It is getting harder and harder watching such a brave people, with a wonderful national character be annihilated.

Ocelot II

(117,720 posts)
5. What do you think we should be doing?
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 02:41 PM
Mar 2022

Preferably something that wouldn't trigger Putin's use of nuclear weapons on Europe and the start of WWIII?

Irish_Dem

(53,007 posts)
7. Yes of course. I am not foolish. But I will not be happy watching wholesale slaughter.
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 02:46 PM
Mar 2022

I do not have the knowledge or credentials to make a plan.
But I pray that someone who does will take some action.

There has to be something between doing nothing and nuclear war.

Irish_Dem

(53,007 posts)
11. I don't mean banking help. I mean direct and immediate help to save lives now.
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 02:50 PM
Mar 2022

Edit to add: FDR gave immediate assistance to Great Britain before we entered the war. Something along those lines perhaps.

I am not smart enough to come up with specifics.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
15. You aren't intimately involved in US international relations and
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 02:54 PM
Mar 2022

military & nuclear weapons strategy ???? What?? I'm always quite impressed when someone of that stature has the time to post on DU. Lol

Seriously ...agree with you 100%. It's in the bleeding heart liberal makeup to care deeply and want leaders to move heaven and earth to protect human beings.

mathematic

(1,453 posts)
25. We ARE helping Ukraine. Military supplies, intelligence, economic and diplomatic sanctions on RU
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 03:13 PM
Mar 2022

We just can't put boots on the ground because, you know, that would be an escalation between nuclear armed powers and nobody wants to see the world turned to glass.

haele

(12,894 posts)
3. NATO involvement for now. Or Russia directly attacks us.
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 02:41 PM
Mar 2022

NATO involvement is a treaty trigger. And that's a limited involvement, not an out and out military powers action. Sanctions and sales/lend-lease activity are pretty much all the US administration can do at this point in time.
Otherwise, Congress has to approve any troop or active US military resources to Ukraine.

On edit - NATO will not get involved unless a NATO country is attacked. That's a given. And Ukraine can't ask to join NATO in the middle of a conflict.

Haele

Big Blue Marble

(5,343 posts)
6. This is the pivotal question for our time.
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 02:42 PM
Mar 2022

The decision was much easier with Sarajevo. Right now Putin is holding the world hostage.
I lived though the The Cuban Missile Crisis. This situation is beginning to have a similar feeling
only with a lot more actual deaths and no one with whom to negotiate. Putin is taunting us
by continuing to up level the violence and death. He is feeling empowered by his threats and his
actions. The situation will only grow more dangerous by the day.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
8. Have felt this for days now. Sadly it seems like a given
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 02:46 PM
Mar 2022

that we won't get involved on the ground. So yes, it seems absolutely incredible but only explanation is that we can't do anything else . I know that's not popular here. But it doesn't mean it can't make some of us feel bad.

drray23

(7,711 posts)
9. That's the thing. We don't need any boot on the ground.
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 02:47 PM
Mar 2022

We could easily shut down the airspace over Ukraine.

Ocelot II

(117,720 posts)
16. Could we?
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 02:55 PM
Mar 2022

The Russians have long-range missiles capable of taking out aircraft, even at high altitude. So if our planes attack their missile installations in response, we now have US forces in direct combat against Russian forces. Then what? Article 5 of NATO? Nukes? I doubt that our military and intelligence experts haven't thought of these things.

Happy Hoosier

(7,685 posts)
19. They do... and we have ways of dealing with that.
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 03:00 PM
Mar 2022

ECM, for example. If the Russians were to fire on our aircraft, then we have other possibilities too... precision long range munitions, HARMs, etc.

Don't get me wrong... I'm not suggesting an unannounced and dramatic intervention. Give the Russians lots of opportunities to reconsider their conduct and to seek cessation of hostilities. They have as much to lose in a major escalation as we do. So long as we are acting like we are the only ones at risk, the Russians have an advantage.

drray23

(7,711 posts)
23. I'm sure they are considering all options.
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 03:02 PM
Mar 2022

If it ever got to it yet we could. Our ( NATO and the US) capabilities are unmatched in that regard.

Of course they( not the US alone, NATO) have thought of it and probably have plans ready for execution in case it's needed.

The question is what triggers it. We shall see if there is a point at which there is an emergency meeting and a decision is made to intervene . Of course that would not happen unless there is a massive slaughter of civilians and we are sure Putin won't resort to nukes.

The more obvious trigger is if Putin presses on into a NATO country.

tritsofme

(17,878 posts)
22. Ridiculous. That would mean shooting down Russian aircraft.
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 03:01 PM
Mar 2022

If you are going to advocate for World War III, at least own it.

ificandream

(9,779 posts)
14. I honestly don't think we can guess at that.
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 02:53 PM
Mar 2022

Biden has a number of factors to consider, I'm sure. And many that we are unaware of.

Happy Hoosier

(7,685 posts)
17. That's one of the things that bugs me.
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 02:56 PM
Mar 2022

I feel pretty certain that there IS a line that Russia could cross in the conduct of this war that could potentially trigger U.S. and /or NATO intervention.

So why the promises of no intervention under any circumstances? It makes no sense. It's good enough to say that there are no plans to intervene right now that but Russia's conduct or other conditions on the ground could change that.

Make the Russians at least question how far they will go.

drray23

(7,711 posts)
24. I agree. For example what if Putin starts using tactical nucs
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 03:10 PM
Mar 2022

to level a city. Do we stand there and say too bad that does not trigger article 5, bomb away with nucs?

Beastly Boy

(10,093 posts)
18. Volunteer fighter regiments are being organized in many countries.
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 02:59 PM
Mar 2022

This is the extent to which "we" can get involved. Not as military forces of states or governments, but as individuals.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
26. Why doesn't Putin attack them? Saw video of servicemen
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 03:19 PM
Mar 2022

In South African getting in plane to join Ukrainian forces. Too small?

Beastly Boy

(10,093 posts)
29. Too small is one plausible explanation.
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 04:30 PM
Mar 2022

They just don't make the news. Another possibility is how they coordinate (or don't) with the Ukrainian forces. Or they may be involved in missions that are best kept off the radar.

jalan48

(14,063 posts)
21. Russia isn't a minor Third World or Middle East country we can invade without much
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 03:01 PM
Mar 2022

consequence, it's a major nuclear power. Sanctions and a diplomatic approach is what we have to work with.

Crunchy Frog

(26,783 posts)
27. The trigger is if they set one foot onto NATO territory.
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 03:32 PM
Mar 2022

Sadly, there are going to be mass killings, and cities will be leveled, and the only things we can do is give them weapons, intelligence, and other forms of support, while taking care of their millions of refugees. And any kind of sanctions that we can come up with to inflict as much pain and cost as possible.

If direct combat begins between the US and Russia, that could trigger WWIII, and more death and suffering than we can even begin to imagine.

Torchlight

(3,783 posts)
30. I wonder if cyber-attacks are now a formal part of 'an attack on NATO'
Wed Mar 2, 2022, 04:41 PM
Mar 2022

Another gray area I wonder about is around NATO's Article 5 response is Russian cyberattacks and their impacts beyond Ukraine.

If the Russians suddenly decide to shut down all the power in Ukraine, chances are that may shut down the power in eastern Poland, where American and other NATO troops are currently located.

These days, does a cyber-attack constitute an attack on NATO?

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