IT'S ON!! $20 per EV!! My bet with Dean Chambers of UnSkewedPolls

[Chichiri]

Sent this morning:

Subject: A Proposition re: Polls

At 11:59pm EST on November 5th, I will take screenshots of the projected EV total for Mitt Romney at FiveThirtyEight, and the projected EV total for Mitt Romney at UnSkewedPolls. (At present these numbers are 242.5 and 359, respectively.) I will invite you and any interested third party to do the same, so that everything is kept honest.

For every electoral vote by which Nate Silver's projection deviates from Romney's actual projected EV total following the election, I will owe you twenty dollars, For every electoral vote by which YOUR projection deviates from Romney's actual projected EV total following the election, you will owe me twenty dollars. The loser will pay the winner the difference.

Payment will be due at noon EST on November 7th, or when at least three major news outlets (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News, PBS) have projected a final electoral vote tally, whichever comes last.

I will be posting this email on the internet; I will similarly post any response you send my way in a public forum unless you expressly refuse permission for me to do so. If I refuse to pay after the deadline, you may have grounds for a lawsuit. If I back out of the challenge, you can tell everyone that David John Wellman of Burnsville, MN, is a lying coward. (Naturally the same is true if you refuse to pay or back out, but I'm not worried about that -- you strike me as an honest guy.)

I await your response.

DJW

Received an hour later:

There is a valid problem with such a projection...can you cut a human being in half? Each electoral vote represents one elected elector who will cast one undivided vote for president. Any electoral vote projections that is in halves is by definition wrong already. One of the candidates could receive 242 or 243 electoral votes, but not 242.5.

As for the bet I can agree to that but have to stipulate, given how MANY different projections and analyses are on my site, that my OFFICIAL projection/prediction of the election will be the final revised version of this:

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_02.cfm

The actual one that will be my final projection/prediction of the presidential race will be at this address:

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_03.cfm

That isn't up yet but it will be. I expect Nate Silver to be off on 2-3 states where Romney will unexpectedly win. At $20.00 per electoral vote, the possible upset states could cost you some money:

New Hampshire: $80
Pennsylvania: $400
Ohio: $360
Michigan: $320
Wisconsin: $200
Minnesota: $200
Oregon: $140
Colorado: $180
New Mexico: $100
Nevada: $120

The very accurate projection by the two U. of Colorado professors has Obama winning Nevada but Romney winning New Mexico and Minnesota and Colorado. Nate Silver could cost you $480 for those three states.

But I wouldn't be surprised if Nate changes his predictions at the very last minute so they almost echo mine, assuming he wants to be accurate rather than try to predict Obama winning.

Dean

.

How do you predict this bet will turn out?

21 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Time expired
	I will win, Dean will claim that voters have a liberal bias and refuse to pay.
	3 (14%)
	I will win, Dean will never be heard from again.
	15 (71%)
	I will win, Dean will do the honorable thing and pay up.
	1 (5%)
	Dean will win and I will pay up.
	0 (0%)
	Dean will win and I will be carried away by the flying pigs before being able to pay.
	0 (0%)
	Dean will get cold feet and cry off before Election Day.
	2 (10%)
	Magical brownies?
	0 (0%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[TeamPooka]

1. To Dean: Or you could wind up adjusting your numbers to match Nate's at the last minute too.... nt

[TexasTowelie]

2. Bookmarked for reference on November 7!

I think that you will be able to splurge in the upcoming holiday season.

[SunSeeker]

3. I see his reply as not accepting your bet in any way.

Instead, he has already said Nate is wrong by way of the "half person" 242.5 electoral vote estimate, then he creates a way to weazel out altogether by referencing several unspecified estimates on his site that you apparently are not aware of (because they don't exist yet!). Then he closes by pontificating about how much money you could lose. But he does not say you WILL lose, or that he accepts your bet. Even if he did accept your bet, he won't pay up, he won't concede, you're talking to a lying brick wall.

[Chichiri]

8. Here's what I said to that in my follow-up email:

We will use your final published projection on the website, and I will look for it at the link you provided.

He has a projection up at the first link, and if no projection appears at the second link we'll go with whatever's at the first link at the end of election eve, or whatever the most recent projection marked as Dean's official projection on the site says.

[Hutzpa]

4. Me thinks you're edging your bets on Sandy. nt

[banned from Kos]

5. Is his money in escrow?

He won't pay if not.

[Chichiri]

6. Seems that it would be impolite to ask now.

I don't want him to welch because I'm being dishonorable or something. I'm sure he's looking for an excuse even now.

[banned from Kos]

11. His fifteen minutes of fame will be over when the election ends

He won't be heard from again.

I have been in the same boat you are.

It takes a couple of attorneys and escrow to solve it - which never occurs.

Tell the snivly little fuck to show you his Intrade screenshot - he won't produce. He is a coward.

[aletier_v]

13. Yes. It's pathetic.

His site is festooned with ads, he's trying to rack up money.

I'd like to know his academic background. Many of the freeper types are anti-intellectuals who believe that they can do anything, including brain surgery, just by shouting out "GIT ER DUN!".

Which is amusing, because they always quote Ayn Rand's elitist belief about "irreplaceable individuals", too. Can't make up their minds if skill is important or not.

[banned from Kos]

16. I concur fully,

so bump it!

[RomneyLies]

7. He wll not pay

He will be forever disgraced.

[Chichiri]

9. Hate to be shameless, but please K&R this.

For maximum effect I want as many people as possible to be aware of this wager.

[aletier_v]

10. Damn, son, you need to get the money in escrow with a neutral third party

He's looking at a potential $4,000 loss!

[dawg]

12. He will claim electoral fraud.

ACORN rose from the grave and stuffed the ballot boxes for Obama. Despite the election results, his unskewed polls were right. Therefore, he will refuse to pay.

[aletier_v]

14. I knew it. Chambers is a weenie

Check out this linkedin profile, I believe it's the same Dean Chambers because of the "Q Star" employment reference.

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/dean-chambers/45/350/1ba

No skill in anything.

Fricking community college, doesn't even list if he graduated or not.

[aletier_v]

15. Okay, he claims to have a Bachelor's degree on the QStar site

http://www.qstaris.com/menu/about.html

Man, I just KNEW he was gonna be one of these "GIT ER DUN" weenies.

Oh, god, it's so sad.

[BainsBane]

17. I'm very interested in seeing if you can get him to pay

I bookmarked your thread. Please keep us posted.

[BainsBane]

18. This is his escape clause

As for the bet I can agree to that but have to stipulate, given how MANY different projections and analyses are on my site, that my OFFICIAL projection/prediction of the election will be the final revised version of this:

So he's going to fiddle with the numbers on Nov. 5 to make them closer to Nate's.

[Chichiri]

19. If that's the case . . .

Then the evening of the 5th and morning of the 6th will be VERY entertaining as the freepers melt down as one.

[Jim Lane]

20. Right - the strategy he imputes to Nate is what he'll do himself.

It's projection (in the psychological not psephological sense).

I think I've read an analysis of past elections that shows (R)asmussen doing the same thing. Their polls are generally more favorable to Republicans, but shortly before the election they move back toward the consensus. Thus, if you assess their accuracy by comparing final pre-election polls to results, they look less biased than they really are.

Also, you might want to nail down with him that the bet depends on the official reported vote in each state (and DC), not on what the electors actually do. A faithless elector, or one innocently fouling up like the John Edwards elector in 2004, shouldn't cost either of you $20.

[LAGC]

21. Bumpity bump.

Looks like Chambers is getting cold feet:

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_03.cfm

His final projection shows a much narrower Romney win, 275 to 263.

Nate Silver's final: 315 Obama, 223 Romney.

I suspect the actual result tomorrow will be somewhere in the middle.

[tarheelsunc]

22. So... have you heard from Dean?

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

23. Well did he welch or did he welch? Did I miss an new thread on this?

[TexasTowelie]

24. See this thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021809125

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

25. I actually did find it finally and meant to post the link to that thread here for others. I guess I

got sidetracked. Thanks for doing so.