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Marius25

(3,213 posts)
Fri May 6, 2022, 09:02 PM May 2022

Recent polling shows abortion is top priority for only 4%

According to 538 from polling last year, abortion is only a top issue for 4% of Americans. Inflation, gas, the economy, immigration, etc. were way higher priority.

How much do you think that will shift now? It's one thing to not care about abortion last year when you thought Roe was likely safe.

Now that it's not, will abortion become bigger priority, or will inflation/gas prices still dominate the election?

Here is 538's assessment:

That said, it’s not immediately clear to me whether gutting Roe would hurt Republicans in the midterms. Gallup found in March, for instance, that Americans do not consider abortion to be a critical problem facing the nation.


What’s tricky about this is that the people who are most in favor of abortion rights are college-educated, and while those people have backed Democrats in recent elections, they are far from a majority of the electorate. For abortion to make a big difference in the election, you’d need to see other groups of voters shifting back toward Democrats on this issue.


And I’m skeptical abortion is going to supplant the economy and inflation as the top issues Americans are worried about — not when Biden’s approval rating will likely still be in the low 40s and there’s little sign that inflation is going to fully stabilize before the election.


Yeah, Geoffrey, I’m not sure it will change many people’s actual votes; if you support abortion rights, you’re probably already voting Democratic. It could, however, increase Democratic enthusiasm to turn out in a year when Republicans might otherwise have an enthusiasm advantage.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-supreme-court-could-strike-down-roe-v-wade-what-would-that-mean-for-the-midterms/
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Recent polling shows abortion is top priority for only 4% (Original Post) Marius25 May 2022 OP
This message was self-deleted by its author AZSkiffyGeek May 2022 #1
Not something billions in political ads cannot change. ColinC May 2022 #2
Yeah this Joenobody May 2022 #28
It's true enough to say. ColinC May 2022 #40
And polling from LAST YEAR is meaningless. Too many people took for granted pnwmom May 2022 #31
Exactly. ColinC May 2022 #41
The right's war on women, freedom, neighbors impacts everyone bucolic_frolic May 2022 #3
You got one thing right - we are at war dwayneb May 2022 #13
hmmm... TallMike May 2022 #18
That was then...this is now MerryHolidays May 2022 #4
Terrorism probably wasn't a top priority on September 10, 2001 either... BlueCheeseAgain May 2022 #5
+1,000 nt Phoenix61 May 2022 #9
+1, uponit7771 May 2022 #11
Too little too late dwayneb May 2022 #14
I don't think they can delay it for that long Polybius May 2022 #17
I don't believe that for one minute. Every republican MerryBlooms May 2022 #6
Correct - this is how a minority gained control of our country dwayneb May 2022 #15
There's are a lot of one issue voters in rural areas. MerryBlooms May 2022 #21
The SC just made abortion, privacy, and revoking human rights Progressive dog May 2022 #7
It wasn't a priority because it was a constitutional right. BradAllison May 2022 #8
Exactly so Dave says May 2022 #34
I'm sure Ukraine probably was about that to. nt Phoenix61 May 2022 #10
This is where polling questions fail.... LakeArenal May 2022 #12
That was before it was taken away. Scrivener7 May 2022 #16
This message was self-deleted by its author MichMan May 2022 #19
Ahh, Karma13612 May 2022 #22
No, you and I read the same. MerryBlooms May 2022 #24
This message was self-deleted by its author MichMan May 2022 #35
Kate Brown's term has ended in Oregon. Oregon could end up MerryBlooms May 2022 #45
Oh really? You know there are trigger states just waiting? MerryBlooms May 2022 #23
+1000...eom Karma13612 May 2022 #26
So frustrating! Guess I better 😶 MerryBlooms May 2022 #27
No. Don't remain silent. We need Karma13612 May 2022 #33
I am so proud of you! We need to stand together. 🥰🥰🥰 MerryBlooms May 2022 #38
United and Rested, we stand strong!!! ☀️💐🌞🙋‍♀️👍 Karma13612 May 2022 #49
This message was self-deleted by its author MichMan May 2022 #39
That's what you're going with? MerryBlooms May 2022 #43
This message was self-deleted by its author MichMan May 2022 #46
Not much was going to change. MerryBlooms May 2022 #47
PLEASE take a moment for yourself Karma13612 May 2022 #48
MichMan Karma13612 May 2022 #51
This message was self-deleted by its author MichMan May 2022 #54
I don't know how you possibly could say this with a straight face. MerryBlooms May 2022 #29
I hear ya! Eom Karma13612 May 2022 #30
That is untrue. Demsrule86 May 2022 #53
Unfortunately, the ones who vote & a margin that can swing some things UTUSN May 2022 #20
A burial plot isn't a top priority either, Karma13612 May 2022 #25
Polling from last year is not recent -- especially in a context that has completely changed. nt pnwmom May 2022 #32
It's not my top priority, but I'm still insisting on candidates being pro-choice iemanja May 2022 #36
And the last tine 538 was relevant was.. LW1977 May 2022 #37
That was before Roe was likely done...anything from last years is worthless. Demsrule86 May 2022 #42
Oh and polls from last year are completely worthless. Demsrule86 May 2022 #44
How old is this poll? Was is done this week? Emile May 2022 #50
Do we have any recent Tickle May 2022 #52
Give it a few weeks for the SC memo to start sinking into people's awareness Wicked Blue May 2022 #55

Response to Marius25 (Original post)

ColinC

(8,232 posts)
2. Not something billions in political ads cannot change.
Fri May 6, 2022, 09:06 PM
May 2022

"Republicans took away a woman's right to choose and will ban contraception."

The key is effectively labeling them as religious fanatics the same way we did in 2008. It can be done more easily especially that it is even more true.

 

Joenobody

(90 posts)
28. Yeah this
Fri May 6, 2022, 10:19 PM
May 2022

I think the message you try to send is that Republicans are after contraception of all sorts. Maybe it's true, maybe it's not but if we say it enough and use the Republicans who have made ccomments along those lines in the ads people will believe it. At worst Republicans will have to talk about that and I'm sure some congressional candidates will say that's what they want, then you can tie everyone else to them.

ColinC

(8,232 posts)
40. It's true enough to say.
Fri May 6, 2022, 11:10 PM
May 2022

Even if it isn't at the top of every Republicans agenda, it is high enough on enough of their agendas (even one or two is enough), to make it a feasible idea. Screaming bloody murder over it is reasonable.

pnwmom

(108,925 posts)
31. And polling from LAST YEAR is meaningless. Too many people took for granted
Fri May 6, 2022, 10:28 PM
May 2022

that Roe v. Wade would never change.

ColinC

(8,232 posts)
41. Exactly.
Fri May 6, 2022, 11:12 PM
May 2022

The fact that it is now gone is going to change a lot, as well as potentially shift peoples' perspective of the GOP to new lows of being an ultra extremist religious party.

bucolic_frolic

(42,678 posts)
3. The right's war on women, freedom, neighbors impacts everyone
Fri May 6, 2022, 09:07 PM
May 2022

Picking a fight with women is a bad idea. Trying to make us all into snitches won't be popular either, and it could rebound on anyone including them. The GOP has stirred up a real hornet's nest.

dwayneb

(766 posts)
13. You got one thing right - we are at war
Fri May 6, 2022, 09:17 PM
May 2022

It's a war for the survival of our democracy.

Abortion rights was simply one skirmish, one battle in that war.

People will go right on believing that abortion, or gun rights, or immigration law, or inflation is the important "issue".

While our enemies move right on in to the Congress and the White House to finish the demolition of our Constitution and our election systems.

Do you really think that anyone will be paying any attention to those "issues" when they are under the boot in a modern American police state?

TallMike

(161 posts)
18. hmmm...
Fri May 6, 2022, 09:40 PM
May 2022

Not really qualified to respond as an immigrant with full citizenship. But yeah, democracy in this country is basically dead. Like a dinosaur, it has been for a while, it just can't realize it yet. As far as I can tell, the dumbing down of america has been a goal of the GOP since at least Regan with some evidence pointing towards a few decades earlier.
When i spent a few years in Guatemala some 15 years ago, there was a great push to literate the populace because, as it seemed like common knowledge then, as it is today, you cannot have a democracy unless the people can at the very least become informed. IE be able to read and comprehend what they read.
GO TEXAS!
GO FLORIDA!
GO...
oh fuck it...
Y'all a bunch of morans!
Ill just see myself out...

MerryHolidays

(7,715 posts)
4. That was then...this is now
Fri May 6, 2022, 09:13 PM
May 2022

Last year is a LONG time ago. 26 weeks to 15 weeks is one thing (and I am NOT saying that's right).

However, the outright overruling of Roe and Casey is entirely different. I think a lot of people are outraged.

BlueCheeseAgain

(1,654 posts)
5. Terrorism probably wasn't a top priority on September 10, 2001 either...
Fri May 6, 2022, 09:13 PM
May 2022

The reality of the SC overturning Roe may have an effect.

dwayneb

(766 posts)
14. Too little too late
Fri May 6, 2022, 09:22 PM
May 2022

If the right-wing SCOTUS justices are smart, they will delay their decision until after the election of 2024, to avoid giving the Democrats any ammunition.

People don't get what is at stake. It's far more than abortion rights. This is about the survival of freedom in America.

Polybius

(15,239 posts)
17. I don't think they can delay it for that long
Fri May 6, 2022, 09:39 PM
May 2022

And if they can, that would suck for us because the Texas abortion law will stand until be get a decision.

MerryBlooms

(11,728 posts)
6. I don't believe that for one minute. Every republican
Fri May 6, 2022, 09:13 PM
May 2022

I know says they vote for Republicans because they're against abortion. They voted against Hillary and Joe, because of abortion. Didn't give a shit about anything else, and also why they voted against every Democrat running for every office. They have plenty of money, not worried about the economy, always one issue voters. Yeah, no way. There's a shitload of one issue voters in southern Oregon and eastern Oregon.

dwayneb

(766 posts)
15. Correct - this is how a minority gained control of our country
Fri May 6, 2022, 09:29 PM
May 2022

At any given moment about 25-30% of American voters are Republican, and about 25-30% are Democrats. In either case, it's a minority that are electing representatives to our government. But the neo-Fascist Right has the advantage, because they understand the path to power and aren't afraid to use any weapon in their arsenal to get there, very much like Putin has no hesitation to kill women and children in his quest for power.

The most import fact is that about 40-50% of American voting eligible public don't give a flying fuck whether we survive as a free nation or not - either they are too stupid or too clueless or too entranced with their electronic toys to bother to vote.

These people are the real reason why the American experiment is going to fail.

MerryBlooms

(11,728 posts)
21. There's are a lot of one issue voters in rural areas.
Fri May 6, 2022, 09:56 PM
May 2022

It's abortion. These polls are bs. The reporters ask the question of the day, the popular question that has been pushed by the pundits that day. Then they call it a poll. No. These Republicans have been one issue voters for decades. The economy shit they're claiming on any given day, is what they watched on fox or newsmax ,that told them the economy sucks, be mad about that today. Scratch below the surface, you're gonna find someone who given the chance, will vote republican because of abortion. I have yet to find that not the case.

Not a one has been able to explain how much they hated President Obama. Just bs talking points from rw shit they listen to. Point out they have health-care now because of him, no way! Obamacare ruined this country. They're the same across the country, not just Oregon. Racist to their core. Oregon is blue for now, but that can change in our next election. Kate Brown is done now, so governor is up for election. We get a republican governor, and we're screwed.

Progressive dog

(6,862 posts)
7. The SC just made abortion, privacy, and revoking human rights
Fri May 6, 2022, 09:14 PM
May 2022

a real issue. A year ago Alito and his gang hadn't voted to revoke the right of women to control there own bodies. That is despicable.

LakeArenal

(28,729 posts)
12. This is where polling questions fail....
Fri May 6, 2022, 09:17 PM
May 2022

For me… past a very certain age, it’s not a top issue “for me”. “For me”, inflation and medical care are top issues.

However, women, as a group, in this world, it’s the major top issue. It’s way more than abortion. It’s about fundamental freedom.

Response to Marius25 (Original post)

Karma13612

(4,527 posts)
22. Ahh,
Fri May 6, 2022, 09:59 PM
May 2022

I believe there are several states with trigger laws just waiting for the ‘Fall of Roe”. Those states will ban abortion from what I understand. Sooooo, I would say that’s more than ‘little change’.

Maybe I’m misunderstanding your comment?

Response to Karma13612 (Reply #22)

MerryBlooms

(11,728 posts)
45. Kate Brown's term has ended in Oregon. Oregon could end up
Fri May 6, 2022, 11:28 PM
May 2022

With a republican governor. I am not sure how our state will vote. I take nothing for granted.

MerryBlooms

(11,728 posts)
23. Oh really? You know there are trigger states just waiting?
Fri May 6, 2022, 10:02 PM
May 2022

Which states are you talking about? Have you checked Louisiana lately?

Karma13612

(4,527 posts)
33. No. Don't remain silent. We need
Fri May 6, 2022, 10:32 PM
May 2022

Strong voices, we need responses to the onslaught.

I’m going to my very first march this Sunday. Locally where I live. I’m 68 and have little stake in the game except to voice my disgust at how this will effect the youngsters. They need support. And I’m fired up. A little scared but also very excited to be a part of it.

I hope I don’t get arrested or something. Its supposed to be peaceful and I will just have an escape plan if it looks like things are going pear-shaped. I’m not a coward, but also not stupid. LOL!!


Response to MerryBlooms (Reply #23)

MerryBlooms

(11,728 posts)
43. That's what you're going with?
Fri May 6, 2022, 11:18 PM
May 2022

You didn't mention anything about states with trigger laws. Almost half the country will be without women's rights. You are fine with women traveling hundreds of miles for care. There are entire blocks of states that will prohibit abortion as soon as this becomes law. These are your fellow Americans. You are fine with them not having the same access to care you have. Would you be fine traveling hundreds of miles to get a vasectomy? How about a surgery that you needed to save your life, but had to lose a testicle, but denied because that's not in the Bible or constitution?

You are not an ally.

Response to MerryBlooms (Reply #43)

MerryBlooms

(11,728 posts)
47. Not much was going to change.
Fri May 6, 2022, 11:53 PM
May 2022

We're done. So, done,. So tired of arguing with people who parse and dance, then indignant. No, I have no energy left for this sort of arguing. I am exhausted from explaining why every woman in every state counts. YES,THINGS ARE GOING TO CHANGE. WHAT THE HELL DO YOU THINK WE'RE SCREAMING ABOUT? Omg, do you know what trigger laws are? They've been passed.

Okay, we have to be done here, because I am crying and it's just not worth it. Hopeless.

Karma13612

(4,527 posts)
48. PLEASE take a moment for yourself
Sat May 7, 2022, 06:31 AM
May 2022

Over the weekend if you can. I don’t know you, but I can tell you are as upset about this as I am. But, don’t let your health suffer and get run down and sick. The fight is beginning to heat up and you need to be ready.

I walked away from it last night and feel refreshed this morning.

Every single woman in every state in this country needs the right guaranteed. Anyone who says different is not paying attention. You are completely right in your passion.

Many hugs and as they say in Handmaid’s Tale: Illegitimi non carborundum (Don’t let the bastards grind you down).



Karma13612

(4,527 posts)
51. MichMan
Sat May 7, 2022, 06:54 AM
May 2022

Why do you think it’s OK for states like Texas to take away a woman’s right to control what happens to her body? Or someone in Alabama, or Mississippi? Why should a woman’s zipcode dictate her uterus?

Trivializing this is not only dangerous, but it will alienate you with most women. You won’t get far in conversations if you say, “but who cares about a few million in this or that state”. They count just as much as someone in a strong blue state. All women count.

And just to reiterate, there are many states poised to ban abortion once Roe Falls. They are trigger laws that are ‘triggered’ and automatically take effect the moment SCOTUS announces their decision in another Month or so. According to some estimates, this will make abortion illegal in nearly 1/2 the country.

Are you really OK with that?

Response to Karma13612 (Reply #51)

Karma13612

(4,527 posts)
25. A burial plot isn't a top priority either,
Fri May 6, 2022, 10:03 PM
May 2022

Until you actually need it.

Plus, as others have pointed out, this survey is old.

I love how pundits love to throw survey results around and manipulate them to make their point.

iemanja

(53,003 posts)
36. It's not my top priority, but I'm still insisting on candidates being pro-choice
Fri May 6, 2022, 10:35 PM
May 2022

So I'm not sure that stat means much.

LW1977

(1,227 posts)
37. And the last tine 538 was relevant was..
Fri May 6, 2022, 10:36 PM
May 2022

I’ll say 2014 at the latest. Not to mention no one gives a shit about last year’s issues!

Tickle

(2,466 posts)
52. Do we have any recent
Sat May 7, 2022, 08:48 AM
May 2022

Polling? I suspect next week we’ll see how much has changed. Hopefully this will change the political landscape of the election 🤞

Wicked Blue

(5,767 posts)
55. Give it a few weeks for the SC memo to start sinking into people's awareness
Sat May 7, 2022, 12:31 PM
May 2022

and I suspect the number will cgange

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