CNN poll: The Supreme Court's draft opinion on Roe v. Wade hasn't shaken the midterm landscape

[Polybius]

(CNN)Americans remain broadly opposed to overturning the Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion nationwide, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, following the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion that would strike down the landmark ruling.

Sixty-six percent say Roe v. Wade should not be completely struck down, and 59% would support Congress passing legislation to establish a nationwide right to abortion, including 81% of Democrats, 65% of independents and 30% of Republicans, the survey finds.

But comparing the results of the new poll to one conducted immediately before the revelation of the draft opinion, the impact on the political landscape heading into the 2022 midterms appears fairly muted.

The share of registered voters who say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this fall rose 6 points between the first survey and the second, but that increase is about even across party lines. Among Democrats, 43% now say they are extremely or very enthusiastic, up 7 points. Among Republicans, it's 56%, up 9 points. And voters who say overturning Roe would make them "happy" are nearly twice as enthusiastic about voting this fall as those who say such a ruling would leave them "angry" (38% extremely enthusiastic among those happy, 20% among those angry).

Read more...


Republicans up 49% to 42% in their generic vote. An outlier for sure, but still troubling...

[budkin]

1. Bullshit

Once people actually lose the right there will be a huge momentum shift.

[PlanetBev]

2. Agreed

Horseshit poll. What’ll the trigger laws take effect.

[Polybius]

4. They will only lose that right if they live in a Red state

Perhaps they will turn them Blue.

[Silent3]

5. That doesn't make the poll bullshit

The poll is about how things are now. You're saying "Once people actually lose the right...". That hasn't happened yet.

Many polls are indeed flawed, but I hate this oh-so-common knee-jerk reaction on DU that any poll that doesn't sound like what we want to believe is bullshit.

[musicblind]

15. This.

If we start discrediting everything we dislike because we dislike it, we're stooping to their intellectual level.

[LW1977]

16. Nope

Bullshit!

[NotTodayPutin]

22. When I clicked that story... this related analysis came up

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/07/politics/republicans-midterms-roe-v-wade/index.html

Our new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, however, shows that such hopes are likely unfounded. Republicans look like they remain in the driver's seat for November because voters don't trust Democrats on the all-important issue of the economy

The May 3-5 CNN survey, conducted after the draft opinion became public, shows Republicans with a 49% to 42% advantage on the generic congressional ballot. If that 7-point lead held through the election, it would be as large a win for the GOP in the national House vote as it was in 2010 -- when Republicans regained the House majority and ended up with 242 seats out of 435.

More to the point, it's the widest edge for Republicans on the generic ballot in a CNN poll this entire cycle. Just before the draft opinion leaked, an April 28-May 1 CNN poll gave Republicans 45% and Democrats 44% on the generic ballot question. A CNN survey conducted from January to February put Republicans at 44% and Democrats at 43%.

It would be a mistake, at this point, to interpret these results as Republicans benefiting from a potential Supreme Court overturning of Roe v. Wade. Polls shift all the time for many reasons, and my guess is this is just statistical noise.

2 things caught my eye.
1. Voters in this poll seemed more concerned about the economy
2. This analyst says way to soon really Guage the impact

[pwb]

7. I agree.

The pukes don't know what to do? They fucked up with this one. The Blue Tsunami is building.

[LW1977]

13. Agreed

Bullshit!

[Tommymac]

28. Corporate Kabuki. It's payback for CU. The bill has been presented by the Fibbing Five.

CNN and the corporate media is NOT on our side.

The Cold Civil War in the USA may be entering a new stage. The RW and it's corporate enablers need to justify the SC's murderous decision - hence these dubious polls.

It's Corporate payback for the Citizen's United decision.

And the bill will be paid with the blood of women all across this land.

The Cold Civil War that has been slowly burning in this country since the 1960's has just reached a new level.

We Democrats have to continue the Good Fight. We have no choice. (Ironic, huh.)

[LW1977]

3. Dumb

[Maeve]

6. It's not official, it's not law, it's not real to most people yet

But hey, if you live and die by the 24 hour news-cycle...

BS poll gets BS results. Anyone surprised?

[RussBLib]

25. true. it is still a "draft" opinion

it's like a giant trial balloon, which got shot full of holes. Surely the SCOTUS would not participate in "owning the libs"... ?

to ban abortion in all cases, even regardless of the health of the mother, is brainlessly cruel and barbaric. Surely a few Republicans still can think?

[Emile]

8. Well that's upsetting. It's inflation

that has people Pissed off.

[OrlandoDem2]

10. People vote with their wallets. I am not confident that striking Roe will

Change much.

[CrispyQ]

14. Yep. But Powell would rather protect the market than curb inflation.

We'll be lucky to keep both chambers. GOTV has always been our strength, but with all the suppression laws & underhanded shenanigans the GOP is doing, even that might not be enough.

[JustAnotherGen]

9. I believe it

3 Radical Republicans in a local woman's group are whining about Roe. Distinctly remember one in particular hoo raying about rapey Brett.

Now she's mad? Really?

She will turn right around and vote for Malinowski's opponent. They aren't connecting the dots.

[SharonClark]

11. If the poll is BS why isn't there an increase

in pro-choice opinion in Texas? Polls showing the majority supports Roe vs Wade are meaningless if the public votes for anti-choice candidates based on other, more important, issues for them.

In Iowa, the GQP legislature and governor are passing laws that the public has polled to be against but they continue to get away with it because they paint the Dems as “others”.

[Lovie777]

12. There was another poll that actually asked direct questions concerning abortion . . .

and it was not favorable to the GQP.

Personally, the blood bath will be red.

[Claire Oh Nette]

17. Republicans 23-25 % of the populaiton. They are in no way 50% of the population.

CNN and the other media companies do a disservice by not calling this to viewers' attention.
Media is culpable because they're the ones broadcasting/streaming Inflation! Gas Prices! Supply Chain! or Biden's Economic gains, or infrastructure bill. They're not covering higher wages except as a negative, They're not covering Ginni Thomas' insurrectionist activities, The Justices perjury, or Abbott's multi billion dollar stunt at the border.

We still hear every word out of the loser's mouth, and from his supporters. Everyone loves a freak show, but that's not news.

[barbaraann]

19. I totally agree with you about the media. :(

I wonder if some of it is just laziness instead of actual bias.

[yellowcanine]

18. Polls about this mean nothing until Roe is actually overturned and trigger laws are enabled.

Unfortunately Americans always seem to think the status quo is going to prevail - until it doesn't.

[Takket]

20. the leak is only 5 days old. how can CNN possibly have conducted a meaningful poll

already? It is barely out in the public yet.

[uponit7771]

29. +1, they never show who understands what's going on with alito's RVW opinion.

[WarGamer]

21. 49-42 would translate to an epic drubbing, possibly 70 seats changing.

[Polybius]

23. Exactly

And with gerrymandering and voting right disrupted, Republicans already have a 2 or 3 point advantage right off the bat. So if they are tied, they win by 2 or 3. Maybe more.

[bronxiteforever]

24. GOP will push for a National ban

This will be the first poll of decades of polls about abortion. It won’t be the Supremes that are an issue, it will be whether to assign DOJ to cases to investigate and the morning after pill.
Welcome to 24 hours a day 25 years of worth abortion specific federal arguments. The GOP will have its culture wars for the next 25 years. It will drown out everything else because it involves average life issues. The GOP will be forced to respond to their anti abortion base like McConnell did with the nationwide ban statement.
I don’t know how it will turn out out but this decision and the weaponized destruction of civil rights will be endless so Polybius get ready for every poll to be cited about these issues until mid century.

[uponit7771]

30. I can't see them do this not after Democratic enthusiasm increase. 7% they don't want that to go to

[sarisataka]

26. The more things change, the more they remain the same

Find a poll that says support for Democrats has increased in the last week it will be celebrated and unquestionably accurate.

Point out a poll that isn't so rosey...

[mcar]

27. I don't believe this

[uponit7771]

31. I don't either, the polls never show. If people understand, aledo's opinion means RVW goes back to p

[FreepFryer]

32. Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuure. That totally tracks. (Nt)

[gulliver]

33. All of our sure winners get dragged into the gray goo of our ineffective rhetoric

A whole lot of people who speak from our side and from the media just simply don't understand how a player wins a poker hand even when they have a royal flush showing.

We need to focus on the abortion rights issue if we want to win it. Not tie it to every other item on our shopping list. Not protest. Not do vigils outside Kavanaugh's house. Focus. Smother the Republican wokeness argument and the CRT argument in offense. Blame inflation on Republicans screwing up the supply lines with their trade war...

Too many of the people we have out there showing outrage are exactly the people that a lot of would-be pro-choice Republicans want to see outraged. They'll vote for Trump over democracy to see our side's emoters emote. They'll vote anti-choice if it spites the people they want to spite, even if they're pro-choice.

We need the common-sense, reasonable people from the center right to like us and trust us enough to cooperate on issues on which we agree. Right now, they're just writing us off way too often. We on the left are getting a bad rap. We need to make that case.

[BlueIdaho]

34. Yet.

I’m convinced the “leak” was timed to move people’s reaction as far away from the midterms as possible. We suffer from outrage overload. The hope is people will “get over it” so the right can proceed to strip more rights away from more Americans.

It’s up to us to push back hard and keep stoking the fire. This is not normal, this is not American. This is the end of our democracy.

[Mr.Bill]

35. It is likely to increase voter turnout.

And that is usually good for us.

[mvd]

36. Indeed

If the taking away of the personal right to choose doesn’t motivate a large variety of voters, there is something wrong.

[Mr.Bill]

37. It'll motivate both sides,

but our side is bigger.