On Biden not seeking a second term

[Mad_Machine76]

I was listening to a clip of Michael Smerconish from CNN that just made my blood boil over this weekend. Now, Smerconish is not a right-wing hack or somebody that I intensely dislike (though I disagree with him often), but all this talk about how bad Joe Biden's poll numbers are and talking about how Lyndon B. Johnson declined to seek another term and how Biden might be wise to do the same thing is really starting to depress me even more than I already am depressed about everything bad going on right now. He pointed out how Biden is a decent and honorable person but that he's getting too old and his Presidency is floundering (largely for reasons that he has little or no control over).

Is this a real thing being floated by other Democrats, or is this just idle pundit-speak or wishful thinking? I don't know that Smerconish has any thoughts or motives to suggest this, but are Republicans afraid of having to face Joe Biden again or does "the media" *want* Republicans back in power (for bottom line reasons). Who is seriously driving this narrative/idea? I do remember that some pundits wanted Barack Obama to refuse to run again in 2012 and for Hillary Clinton to replace him, but nobody really took it seriously and Obama won comfortably won 2012 despite his own sagging poll numbers and the midterm congressional defeat. Did pundits ever suggest Trump or any other Republican in political trouble refuse to run for re-election like this (because I don't remember it)? Why is it only Democrats they make this suggestion for?

Not really looking for a debate but is anybody else pissed off by all this talk or know where this is coming from?

[SoonerPride]

1. Trump was upside down his entire term

And he still ran again


So

[Mad_Machine76]

2. Exactly!

And unlike Joe Biden, he was the one making a mess of everything himself.

[Doc Sportello]

8. Good point

And dump came within about 100,000 votes of winning.

[CrackityJones75]

54. And lost.

[Cracklin Charlie]

3. I don't think President Joe Biden needs Michael Whoever to tell him how to act.

These guys do love tellin’ people how to act.

[Demsrule86]

51. Michael Smerconish is a Republicans so nothing he says matters unless you

think Republicans offer us helpful advice. I don't watch cable news anymore because I think our side is treated unfairly. And Smerconish is a sneaky lying POS. If he says to do something, I am inclined to do exactly the opposite.

[calimary]

4. I really hate this! Dammit, WHERE's the loyalty, Democrats?

Fuck! All they obsess on is whatever he may not have done. And NOT A WORD about his many accomplishments.

Here's a link - and this one only covers his first year in office.
https://whatbidenhasdone.wordpress.com/2022/01/20/year-one-what-biden-has-done-mega-thread/

Why don’t they stand up and support him? I REALLY hate that!

[SunSeeker]

16. +1

[Budi]

17. Because that's not the narrative the MEDIA requires.

When's the last time our VP was even mentioned?
She was just in Saudi for a meeting. What was it about?
No one knows, most don't know she was there at all

If they don't say her name, she doesn't exist.

They set the predetermined narrative.

[Demsrule86]

52. Some have no loyalty and this is why we can't have nice things. And I would think

after multiple important losses...in 2000,2004,2010 2014 and 2016 because of this crap, we would have learned. Roe is on life support and the GOP will sunset Medicare, Medicaid, and social security if they win. I know some think oh they won't do that or oh the people will rise up...they will create a better society. But, the people won't rise up because by then we won't have elections. This is, without doubt, a 'we all hang together or we will hang separately moment.

[Hoyt]

5. Midterms are where focus should be. Plenty of time later to discuss this.

[TheProle]

47. Agreed.

Biden's age was a concern to many going into the 2020 race. He is the oldest to ever hold the office and will be 80 just after the mid-terms.

[Maru Kitteh]

6. I have an intense dislike for that blowhard. He's more frequently full of it than

anything else. He seems to have exactly two modes, contrarian and Captain Obvious.

[Mad_Machine76]

22. Yeah

I don't really go out of my way to listen to him, but my wife was just watching that clip with him on CNN and I happened to be in the same room. Thank goodness we're on the same wavelength (re: politics).

[paleotn]

7. Obama's approval ratings weren't all that hot at times....

particularly in his 3rd year. He still won reelection. Smerconish is making the mistake of thinking all things will be equal to where they are now into the future. I wouldn't make that bet. 2024 is a long way off and Biden is no more unpopular now than Trump was throughout his presidency. A lot of water under the bridge before we get there. Who knows what things will be like then?

[Mad_Machine76]

20. Speaking of things shifting

I saw a headline over the past weekend that Democrats were starting to "sail ahead" of Republicans on the generic Congressional ballot, so however bad it seems for Joe Biden personally, congressional Democrats seem to be getting some wind at their backs, which is probably only going to improve when the 1/6 hearings happen and, unfortunately, when Roe vs. Wade (probably) gets overturned.

[Polybius]

28. We're not keeping the House, so I wouldn't get too excited

With gerrymandering and voter suppression, we have to be up by 5 just to break even.

[LakeArenal]

31. See ya in November when you will say hey "I was wrong."

[Polybius]

32. I will be happy to say that I was wrong if we keep the House

I will bookmark, and reply either with an apology or an "I told ya."

[LakeArenal]

44. Perfect! 😉

[Demsrule86]

60. Don't bother. If we lose I would consider such posts as this as demoralizing voters and reducing

our chances and part of the problem.

[CrackityJones75]

56. Why say this?

Are you trying to manage peoples expectations? Temper enthusiasm?

[Demsrule86]

59. One wonder why anyone would make a post like that before a midterm.

[CrackityJones75]

61. I don't want to be accusatory but...

It doesn’t help right? Or maybe it does…. help the right.

[Demsrule86]

63. It is not helpful. I heard from another poster recently who said when polls reported

Beto as losing and people saying he was losing, she was discouraged and wondered why bother? I think Beto can win. And I have a feeling that this is not a usual midterm.

[Demsrule86]

58. That is bullshit. the house numbers are looking good...and gerrymandering be damned

the Generic ballot has been improving steadily and with Roe and contraception on the chopping block, we could hold the house...if we don't have people breathlessly announcing we will lose.

[DemocraticPatriot]

76. But the benefit of "fear" might help to turn out our voters...

It seems to work for the Republicans!

(and we seem to have more to fear, than they do...)


Of course "defeatism" is the other side of this card...

[paleotn]

74. Not surprised. Rethugs are doing nothing to help themselves...

Too busy fightin' the culture war and each other.

[Demsrule86]

53. Obama's approval rating in 2014 were awful going into the election. The I saw the internals.

Incumbents have an advantage...and the OP compares this to Johnson? He lost the seat. So we want to do something that was a complete failure?

[Lochloosa]

9. That is a lifetime in politics. Midterms should be the focus

[Atticus]

10. That perpetual smirk on Smirkonish's face is because he thinks his act has everyone persuaded

that he is not a Republican. He believes that not calling us "libtards" makes him objective.

A Democrat taking advice from him would be like sheep letting a wolf choose their path.

[Mad_Machine76]

19. I believe

that it was a couple of Fox "Democrats" who gave Obama the similar advice back in 2011.

[Joinfortmill]

11. He was raised in a conservative family.

And then there are ratings and his listener polls. Haven't watched him in years.

[exboyfil]

12. I don't think Harris has any chance of beating whoever the GOP candidate is

I am wondering if someone like Al Franken would offer the best chance. Andy Beshear? Mark Kelly if he loses his Senate seat? Cory Booker?

A young and charismatic Obama is a whole lot different than Biden now. Obama is 19 years younger and that will have been 12 years ago.

2028 I am looking for Ossoff. I really like him.

[DFW]

34. If Jon keeps his seat in 2026

I think a presidential run in 2028 is neither likely nor impossible.

But I'll tell him that at least someone is thinking in that direction!

The others? I doubt Al is interested in trying for the White House. Beshear? No idea. Never met the guy. Mark is looking to solidify his seat with re-election this November. He's probably not interested in a White House run unless Biden says definitely no.

I will support our nominee, of course, but I will NOT support for the nomination any of the Senators (or anyone who was at the time) who publicly urged Al to resign from the Senate 5 years ago.

[LakeArenal]

45. Same same.

[DFW]

48. Pretty much, yeah.

Jon would be some new blood, and after Obama, I would never say never to an improbable fresh face that wanted to defy the odds.

But we're a long from there, yet, and Joe Biden has NOT given any hint of wanting to retire.

[Demsrule86]

55. We need Biden to run...I pray everyday, he is healthy. We don't have any

candidates that can win in 24. The rustbelt states are the issue. Al Franken won't win them. He was stabbed in the back and has been out of politics for years now. I am hoping that Fetterman wins in PA and stays healthy, he could be the nominee in 28. The fact that a Republican wants us to not run Biden means we should.

[Haggis 4 Breakfast]

13. Oh, how Michael Smercomish LOVES to hear the sound of his own voice.

[2naSalit]

14. Blustering blowhard says what?

Waste of time and clean air.

[PortTack]

15. President Biden has said more than once he intends on running...this guy needs to respect that

Respect…needs a deep explanation… for some

[LakeArenal]

46. DUers also need to accept the same.

Biden will run again. And he will win.

[NotTodayPutin]

18. The President should do what the President feels is best for himself, and the country.

That should be sole criteria in his decision. Not what talking heads believe, or what they want to happen.

[Mad_Machine76]

21. I agree

I don't get the perception that he is seriously considering this, however.

[Igirl]

29. Not best for himself.

What’s best for the country. I want a Democrat in the White House. He is polling as some of the worst numbers ever. We need to make sure we have a viable candidate for the party.

[NotTodayPutin]

30. In the matter Iof running for re-election..

Most definitely what is best for himself.

[DemocraticPatriot]

49. Since the civil war, no party has EVER won the White House

after failing to re-nominate their incumbent president. I see no viable replacement for President Biden anywhere. If he doesn't run, I believe we are fucked.


As to the polling numbers, those can certainly change-- but Jimmy Carter was polling a lot worse in the second half of his one term.

Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama both suffered horrendous losses in their first mid-term elections, but went on to win re-election with comfortable margins.

[Demsrule86]

64. And Carter lost because we had a primary...Anytime we primary an siitting president we lose.

Kennedy should not have run.

[DemocraticPatriot]

75. I think Carter would have lost anyway...

He played politics with the Iranian hostage situation throughout the primaries...(while refusing to debate, or campaign)

And I recall very well what he said, (once again), on the weekend, or perhaps THE DAY before the general election--- he said something to the effect that 'progress is being made, we may be on the edge of getting the hostages freed!!!'... but the voters didn't buy it.

Up until that point, the presidential polls, while showing him behind, did not give an inkling of the landslide loss which would befall that ticket. He was the 'boy who cried wolf' too many times. He made a similar announcement on the morning of the Wisconsin primary, which was held one week after Kennedy's victories over him in New York and Connecticut... Carter won that primary... but there is a limit to the number of times one can 'play that card', and he overplayed his limit.

However, your point about primarying a sitting president is well-taken, and historically accurate, and I have to agree -- I would call it "a rule" at this point. Any credible well-supported challenge to an incumbent president is almost guaranteed to result in the defeat of the party's ticket, no matter whom the nominee is-- it has never had a different result.

However, as a 17-year-old liberal partisan, I supported the Kennedy challenge with all of my heart! Even before it actually happened... I was perhaps one of those people who helped make it happen. I was a "true believer" who was not totally ignorant of historical facts, but chose to overlook them, because, by God, I wanted "the restoration"!!! I was very romantic and passionate about that... Through my entire life, that has been my "keynote campaign"-- I personally contacted more qualified voters (in a very restricted "party members only caucus" than anyone else in my county! (300+ completed telephone contacts). My personal tally showed us losing in Ingham county, which held true, but Senator Kennedy won the state of Michigan narrowly with 71-70 delegates...

Of course, at that point of history, I had no idea of what would result from the Reagan presidency, and their takeover of the Senate (since it had not happened yet), and everything that followed.

With such historical foresight, I would have opposed the primary challenge, and oppose any primary challenge against President Biden today (although in the case of President Biden, I have no major complaints, even minor complaints are hard to find--- I only want him to "use the bully pulpit harder"!


As far as "the Kennedy challenge" in 1980 goes, one needs to understand that Ted was under very intense pressure to make this primary challenge, by partisans, federal Democratic officeholders, and state Democrats from all over the country! There was a very active "Draft Kennedy" movement in New Hampshire. It was in no sense. just "his idea"... In my own state of Michigan, virtually all of the statewide Democratic officeholders, and the majority of the Democratic state legislators, called for and endorsed his candidacy in a big press conference in September 1979. It was 'front page news' here.. Kennedy declared his candidacy on November 4th.

(Democratic officeholders from the federal level and all the way down, were in fear about what might happen to them in the 1980 general election, if Carter was at the top of the ticket... as it happened, their fears proved true-- although too many of them "disappeared" when the political winds changed, after the diplomats in Tehran were taken hostage, and Carter benefited from the "rally around the flag" effect-- just in time for the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary...)


In benefit of hindsight, I have since concluded that my support of "the Kennedy challenge" was a mistake...
I am older and wiser now.

... but I don't believe it made that much difference in the end. Carter would have lost anyway
(and I now love Jimmy Carter, the "best ex-president that we ever had"--)



As such, I would vehemently oppose any challenge to the re-nomination of President Biden in 2024!

Furthermore, (as I stated before), I believe he is our only chance to retain the White House in 2024.
If he does not run... I will be exploring citizenship in Canada...

[llashram]

77. I choose not

to be so intent on looking for "a viable replacement for President Biden"? First. We are not "fucked" if he chooses not to run which I don't believe is the case. Second and thirdly let us all concentrate on winning not losing in these upcoming mid-terms and general in 24. Please. No defeatist thinking and I admit my worries absolutely overwhelm me sometimes. Yet if we GOTV we are going to swamp the trump cult and show them for what they are, a bunch of ignorant pawns in the hands of people concerned about racial dominance. And I am not attacking you or not understanding frustration at the state of politics in this country. Conservatives are the loudest in their objections to freedom for all Americans so they seem a very strong minority. I just can't believe that racial/sexual politics and voter numbers are such a widespread fear among sane conservatives that they want a fascist state to rule us all. Please believe me we are on the same side with the same worries.

The only thing I know they are about is killing POC. Forcing women to go full term on pregnancies, especially white women, no matter the health risks for some and suppressing liberal and progressive voters. Gendron has a white manifesto about this and I found this quote in an article in a national newspaper:

"So I tell my friends, as the RACIAL demographics continue to change, things like BUFFALO will only get worse. White conservatives want to protect something that is anathema to the American Dream. Their numbers. Their dominance. Their power. Their dream".

Gendron's hate-filled manifesto brings this true feeling of white fear to the surface for all to understand. And for the sane to reject. And I am not accusing Gendron of being mentally ill, HE IS NOT. His fears mirror the hate that trump agitated among those known as hate-filled racist sexist misogynists for 4 long years. They are a minority. Yet loudest at spreading the hate and now open fear that whites and POC have always known were right under a thin veneer of American culture/society presented to the world. And that is a veneer of denial, distraction and outright apathy. Americans have always had this. Now as Americans these now openly revealed problems must be addressed. Not as a political Party or a racial demographic but as Americans who want to save our democracy.

We must assure that ALL Americans are guaranteed freedoms of our Constitution and Bill of Rights. And that we keep moving toward a peaceful multi-racial society where equality and justice are a reality.

I do feel you and am worried about the upcoming elections and our leaders. We just have to get out the vote no matter the hurdles thrown in our path(s). I'm 74 and am confident that if President Biden says he's running again, barring unforeseen circumstances, he will be our standard-bearer. I also believe we have candidates in the wings that will surprise us all.

on edits: the capitalizations are my insertions.

[Demsrule86]

62. Well the recent example of an inmcumbent Democratic president not running is

Lyndon Johnson and we lost. Biden understands this and if his health holds up, he will run.

[BumRushDaShow]

23. As a note, Smerconish is from here in Philly

and used to be a local talk radio host on a station here for a bunch of years. Then he moved to MSNBC as a fill-in (often for Tweety), along with having a regular show on SiriusXM's "POTUS" channel, and finally landed on CNN.

He was a registered Republican until 2008 (and his local talk show programming was definitely to the right although not crazy-talking loon right) when he decided to go "indie" and supported/voted for Obama.

I'm guessing that his old "red" is showing.

[PCIntern]

24. It's hard to believe that that middle-aged piece of shit...

Was once a young piece of shit.

[BumRushDaShow]

37. LOL

He was what I would always call one of the "annoying Republicans". He wasn't as bad as Dom Giordano but the whole lot of them, including at times, Irv Homer, were just ugh.

[AntiFascist]

25. I didn't support Biden during the primaries, mainly due to his age...

but he has exceeded my expectations, even though people are preoccupied with inflation and the economy, price of gas, etc.

Keep in mind that Trump is 75 and he really seems to be losing it!

[Captain Zero]

26. Historically, any party that drops a president from the next ticket almost

certainly loses that election.

[BlueIdaho]

36. 👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻 THIS 👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻

Why should anyone pay any attention to the Smirk?

[867-5309.]

78. When was a president dropped?

I can't think of a sitting president since LBJ that didn't get the nomination.

[keep_left]

27. Wow, talk about an ahistorical perspective. There were some pretty good reasons why LBJ...

...declined his party's endorsement and chose not to seek reelection. How old is Smerconish?! Obviously not old enough to remember those days. (Neither am I, but I apparently read more history than Smerconish did).

[Demsrule86]

65. The result was a loss..hardly an example I want to follow...We lost. And got the second

worst criminal in history (Trump is the first) Richard Nixon. Had we supported Johnson...there might have been no Nixon and no Reagan. Johnson was an incredibly good president in terms of legislation.

[DonCoquixote]

33. there have been people doing the "he is too old chant" for years

Often the same people who like Trump, and who also apparently think Bernie Sanders is in his 20's. WE NEED TO STOIP LETTING THE GOP TRAKE THE NARRATIVE, AND THAT INCLUDES THE PEOPLE WHO THINK ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS PICK THE "RIGHT" CANDIDATE TO WIN!" Obama was a great candidate, and at least a solid B+ president, yet people still do variants on the "they shoulda got bernie or Hillary" line. BTW, if they even think of this, they better get a fresh face, because the same lines they used to get Joe out will be used to get Bernie or Hillary out.

[betsuni]

35. "I do remember that some pundits wanted Barack Obama to refuse to run again in 2012"

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/02/sanders-obama-primary-challenge/606709

[Demsrule86]

66. And some wanted him primaryed. I consider this just another example of disloyalty which

has all but destroyed our party in a number of states and may likely cost us our Republic.

[Emile]

38. This talking head does not represent the Democratic party.

This kind of propaganda is designed to cause division. Ignore it!

[kentuck]

39. I wouldn't blame him if he chose not to run...

Who wants to be in charge of a disaster in the making? If we are not already there?

I am beginning to think the Republicans are trying to lose.They know they have no solutions and they will never accept the blame.

Biden is doing the best job possible under the circumstances, in my opinion. He was not left a bed of roses.

[Mad_Machine76]

40. What does that accomplish though

That would be him basically washing his hands of things like he doesn't care. Plus, (likely) throwing the country into the hands of people who are not only incompetent and don't care but also malevolent

[kentuck]

41. Assuming that no other Democrat could win...

You may be right.

However, we do not know what might happen between now and then?

[Mad_Machine76]

43. Exactly

I just find the discussion in general to be both premature and distasteful.

[Demsrule86]

67. We should know what will happen...we have never have a win when an incumbent president

didn't run. And we really don't have another candidate that wins the rustbelt at this moment.

[lindysalsagal]

42. Smerc trades in both-siderism. Ignore.

He might serve some purpose to wingers who try to understand the GQP BS. He might even help them access better sources off Faux. But if you're already reading DU, you're ahead of the fool.

[Demsrule86]

50. We lost Johnson's seat. Incumbent advantages is immense. Biden will be fine.

I really think that there is no one else that can win. And I think you should self delete. This is awful and just before a midterm too. I will Trash this. I don't even want to see the title. Don't we have enough issues without turning Biden into a lame-duck president just before the midterm and setting ourselves up for failure in 24? Our Republic is at stake here. We lost after president Johnson didn't run. I remind you of that one more time. You are advocating doing something that cost us the presidency.

[Mad_Machine76]

70. I'm not advocating anything?

[themaguffin]

57. If Biden doesn't run, it will be because of health/age & he can't say that he won't run now

[Demsrule86]

68. Biden says what he wants...and is going to run.

[themaguffin]

71. Any president must say that. If a pres says that they aren't running, they are lame ducks

[Demsrule86]

69. And let me just say this...if Biden doesn't win, the Republicans will win and that can't happen.

[themaguffin]

72. Huh?

Yes if Biden runs and loses, then yeah, the GOP wins and we're screwed. Screwed if the GOP wins in general.

That said, I don't see an 80 year old running for president. He can't say that now, so I hope he and Dem leadership are focused.

I'm just noting a reality. I like Biden. I voted for Biden in the Dem primary in 2008 even after he was losing. I will vote for him in 2024, if he should run, but I don't see that as likely.

[Celerity]

73. do you mean if Biden doesn't run? TIA

And let me just say this...if Biden doesn't win, the Republicans will win