Silver lining: As France Gets Downgraded, Sarkozy’s Re-Election Chances Get Slimmer
With over three months before the two rounds of France’s presidential voting on April 22 and May 6, too much time remains to count a formidable campaigner like Sarkozy out yet—especially given his incumbent-during-a-crisis advantage, and the almost certain bounce in polls he’ll likely experience once he declares his candidacy (probably late in the game—perhaps in early March). No one is predicting anything—at least not yet.
Despite that cautionary note, however, odds remain long on Sarkozy’s re-election. While recent waves of projected voting polls have slightly improved for Sarkozy of late, he hasn’t managed to erase the commanding lead Socialist Party (PS) candidate François Hollande has held for months. Worse still, Sarkozy’s ability to work his usual magic on the stump will be complicated by what surveys reflect as the dark view most people in France have of his presidency.
...those same surveys also show Hollande beating Sarkozy in a second round run-off stage of voting by 8% to 14%—if the incumbent even makes it that far. Indeed, with extreme-right leader Marine Le Pen getting 17% to 19% of first-round votes in current polls, concerns are high she may reverse her father’s 2002 coup of edging out over-abundant and divided leftist candidates to secure the second run-off spot against then-incumbent President Jacques Chirac.
That’s far from an idle dark fantasy. A January survey showed 26% of voters saying they want Marine Le Pen to qualify for the 2012 run-off. Another poll published Thursday registered a record high of 31% of respondents saying they agree with anti-immigrant, anti-European, nationalistic positions of Le Pen’s National Front (FN) party (5% more than in 2002, and 9% higher than before Marine Le Pen became its leader 11 months ago). That’s an evolution political analysts ascribe in part to Marine Le Pen’s success in “de-demonizing” the long-shunned far-right among the mainstream public. But some analysts also say Sarkozy’s repeated attempts to embrace FN policies as his own to lure back the party’s voters who backed his campaign in 2007 have been responsible in removing the stigma from once untouchable far-right positions. Either way, all the elements required for a potential electoral shock for French conservatives are currently lined up.
http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2012/01/13/as-france-gets-downgraded-sarkozys-re-election-chances-get-slimmer/?xid=gonewsedit
Sarkozy has been pandering to the far-right for a long time (kind of like republicans in a primary contest) in an attempt to siphon off enough conservative voters to finish at least second in the opening round of the presidential election. It will be interesting to see if Sarkozy or Le Pen will make it to the second round with contest with the Socialist Party's Hollande.
At least a Hollande vs. Le Pen final round contest would present France with a stark choice between a socialist candidate and a far-right candidate.
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