Why Mitt Romney Will Prove To Be a Feeble Presidential Nominee

[DCBob]

From the Daily Beast..

This weekend, social conservative leaders from around the country are gathering in Texas (where else?) to see if they can coalesce around a Mitt Romney alternative. That will wrap up Saturday. The next day, the Tea Party groups of South Carolina will convene in Myrtle Beach to, uh, see if they can coalesce around a Mitt Romney alternative. A week ago, all these people seemed like cranky sore losers. They’re still probably cranky sore losers, but one thing has changed: now that Romney is known as the King of Bain, their reservations about his electability don’t seem quite as crazy. In fact, they’re not crazy at all, because Romney is a stunningly weak candidate.

-snip-

Romney’s argument, of course, is that he has the know-how to fix the economy and put people to work. But as more and more people learn about what Bain did in private equity—the story will fade a bit now, but return with a roar this summer and fall—more and more people will come to realize the truth of the matter, which is that Bain wasn’t about creating jobs, it was about making investors who were usually already rich even richer. Jobs were sometimes created as a side effect, and they were sometimes destroyed as a side effect. But jobs were an ancillary consideration. Profit—for shareholders, yes, but mostly for Bain—was the idea.

-snip-

Is this really the man to make the case to middle America that he is their rescuer? It’s a joke. What Romney is depending on—the only thing that can elect him, really, along with I suppose a terrorist attack or some unforeseeable revelation or scandal—is a lousy economy. That can maybe elect him.

But let me pose this question. What if the economy is in pretty decent shape by the fall? The creation of 200,000 private-sector jobs in December is nothing to scoff at. In fact, Gary Burtless, an economist at the Brookings Institution, emailed me Monday morning in response to my question about the unemployment rate in this election year to say: “Based on the growth in the adult population, employment levels in Dec. 2011, and a couple of alternative assumptions about how fast the labor force will grow over the next 10 months, it appears to me than employment growth will have to average 155,000 to 170,000 over the next 10 months to hit” a jobless rate by Election Day of 8 percent. He cautions that the labor force participation rate (LFPR, explained here) could affect that a bit, requiring a somewhat higher number. Fair enough. But Burtless also told me in an earlier conversation that the LFPR rose over the last quarter of 2011, meaning more people participated in the work force and looked for jobs—which in turn means that “yeah, but people are taking themselves out of the labor market” is slowly becoming a smaller and smaller asterisk.

more: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/01/15/why-mitt-romney-will-prove-to-be-a-feeble-presidential-nominee.html.html

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I think Romney is clearly beatable if things stay about where they are today. Romney is predictable, consistent and boring. I am sure the Obama campaign already has a detailed batlle plan to defeat him. Even if the polls have Romney failrly high now.. that will go down as the campaign heats up and the focus goes on the two candidates and the attack ads start. Romney will likely buckle under the pressure and provide some juicy material for SNL skits. Cant wait for those!

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Added graph to show Romney's approval ratings vs Obama -- also from TDB..

As Republicans appear to settle on Mitt Romney as their standard-bearer, talk online about the presumptive nominee is becoming more negative.

more: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/01/12/election-oracle-romney-trails-obama.html

[no_hypocrisy]

1. The ultimate basis for Romney's ultimate campaign will be that

he isn't Barak Obama. Hobson's Choice.

[DCBob]

2. and the ultimate basis against him is that

he isnt Barack Obama... not even close.

[Bolo Boffin]

3. Do you want some creative destruction of America?

Then Mitt Romney is your guy.

[DCBob]

4. Actually that is what many on RW want..

They want to tear it down and start over.

[The Genealogist]

24. He would finish off America, but it wouldn't be creative

Just cut out the funding, eventually fixing it so that no rich person pays any tax at all, and what there is goes into military and other RW pet concerns. Meanwhile, more jobs sent to other countries, jobs that are left are minimum wage (at best). I don't find that very creative, but I suppose this could be subjective.

[Prism]

5. I really hate dishonest spin

Particularly

In fact, Gary Burtless, an economist at the Brookings Institution, emailed me Monday morning in response to my question about the unemployment rate in this election year to say: “Based on the growth in the adult population, employment levels in Dec. 2011, and a couple of alternative assumptions about how fast the labor force will grow over the next 10 months, it appears to me than employment growth will have to average 155,000 to 170,000 over the next 10 months to hit” a jobless rate by Election Day of 8 percent.

Notice where the quotes end. The author of the piece decided to rework the opinion to create an impression. To end a forecast in mid-quote is pretty strange, isn't it? Almost as if the e-mailer was discussing another number entirely. After all, if the quote was discussing the same, clearly understood number, why end the quote and take over? Yet, there he goes. Just what number was the e-mail discussing? We'll never know.

I am getting really, really tired of these employment number games. We're in a depression. Employment is getting a little better but still sucks. Honest economists are looking at the nonpolitical figures and explaining why they're weak numbers. But, hey, let's pretend!

Dislike.

(And for the record, I think President Obama will eat Romney's lunch in the election).

[DCBob]

7. How do you know its "dishonest spin" ??

It does look a bit odd to cut it off there but maybe the actual quote contained some superfulous words and the author was just trying to make it more concise.. a common accepted practice in journalism.

[Prism]

11. Not a common practice . . .

. . . to cut off the number that is at the heart of the statement. He wasn't just editing for brevity. He stopped the quote before a number was mentioned.

It's one thing to clip up for space. It's another to cut off a quote right before it states the fact that is ostensibly central to your thesis.

C'mon. You see what he did there. Don't pretend you didn't.

[DCBob]

12. so are you claiming he intentionally misquoted the guy?

If so you would think the economist in question would issue some statement refuting it.

[Prism]

13. It was twisted

Why not lay out the central number the economist was presumably citing? Why abruptly cut off a quote? The quote was blatantly clipped at an extremely odd point. If I had to hazard a guess, the economist was reaching towards a different, more accurate measurement while the writer translated it into the more politically friendly official number. Both number would be factually correct, but how they were arrived at would differ in accuracy and honesty.

It's a neat little trick, but it was far too blatant. The writer didn't lie, but he engaged in a dishonesty.

Which, again, I'm sure you know, but hey, let's play this pretend game "For verily, I have no idea of which you speak, and how can you sir so impugn on honor?!"

Good grief. It's only January. Pace yourself. November's a touch off.

[DCBob]

14. You seem overly obsessed with this issue.. that quote wasnt the focus.

The point of the article is Romney is a weak candidate... for many reasons.

[Prism]

16. Romney's an extremely weak candidate

But we don't need to lie about the economy to prove it.

[DCBob]

18. I agree.

But I dont think the author is lying about anything.

[Crankie Avalon]

6. Romney isn't the type anyone would want to "have beer with"...

...and that's the only way Republicans can get elected president: by having a personality that can charm enough people to make them not look too carefully at the personality's actual positions on issues, a la GWB or Reagan. The Republicans have degenerated elections into popularity contests, so you'd think they'd know better than to nominate immediately unlikeable weirdos like McCain and Romney.

[DCBob]

8. Does Romney even drink beer?

I think alcohol is a no-no for Mormons?

[customerserviceguy]

23. He drinks ale

Ginger ale!

[jefferson_dem]

9. Bain Capital is to Romney (2012) as Vietnam was to Kerry (2004).

Politically speaking.

What Romney thinks will be his greatest achievement, the foundation of his campaign, will actually become his most devastating liability. Remember how effective the Swift Boat scumbags were in 2004? Rest assured, that will be the model followed by Romney critics in 2012.

[DCBob]

10. Yeah, I agree.

but it does depend on how well our side can frame it correctly. We are not as good as the RW in these matters.

[Nay]

21. Luckily, it the pub side that is now attacking Romney on Bain and other stuff. True, once Romney

becomes their official guy, most protests will be stifled, but at least the pubs dumped on him for a while. Memories are short, though, and I expect most pubs will forget that it was their own side that didn't like Romney at the beginning of the year.

[Mass]

15. Except the attacks on Romney are true. The attacks on Kerry were lies.

[Nay]

20. Thanks, Mass. Was just about to jump in with that very comment. nt

[jefferson_dem]

22. Of course.

I wasn't talking about the merits of the attacks...only that they are comparable in terms of the politics.

[underpants]

17. Notice how a terrorist attack would NOW be bad for a sitting President

9/11, of course, was Bush's supposed trump card to EVERYTHING. "Since 9/11...." was used ad nauseum and the press never questioned it. In fact ON 9/11 every single major news network anchor (including the late Peter Jennings) said "His Presidency is now confirmed" erasing any further discussion of the fact that Bush stole the election in Florida in 2000.

[B Calm]

19. Freeper Trolls are looking up the word Feeble. .