Nate Silver: One reason the Reuters/Ipsos poll may be skewed:

[Are_grits_groceries]

Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight)
1/14/12 5:20 PM
FYI: Reuters/Ipsos poll showing huge lead for Romney in SC was (i) conducted online and (ii) was registered rather than likely voters.

I don't believe these results truly reflect the GOPeas who will vote.

[highplainsdem]

1. I don't, either. I think the attacks on Bain are hurting Romney.

[DCBob]

2. The poll showed a 21 point lead for Romney.

Even if skewed a bit it seems Willard is heading for a decisive win.

[Are_grits_groceries]

3. "It ain't over 'til it's over."

Yogi Berra

He may win by a lot. However, his problem is the vote is on Saturday. That's a long time to hold this lead. It is an eternity.

I heard that somebody pushed the fat lady down a long flight of stairs.

[DCBob]

4. For sure.. but seems the momentum is on Willards side.

But he could surely screw it up with some dumb comment between now and the vote.

[Are_grits_groceries]

5. "Aye, there's the rub."

Can Mittens keep the momentum or just stay in place?

The longer it goes the more time for him to say or do something stupid. In addition, I would pay cash money to know what is going on in the dark back rooms and basements of the AntiMitts. It ain't pretty.

Even if he does win, he can't take the South as a given. Those evangelical leaders who endorsed Santorum are a formidable and hateful bunch.

He will have to continue to spend some time back in the South as he has to tack more towards the middle for the general election. I don't think he will lose the South, but he will have to spend valuable time here.

[DCBob]

6. Rasmussen also has Romney up significantly.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in South Carolina finds Romney ahead with 28% support, but now former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is in second place with 21% of the vote. Support for former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum who was in second a week ago has fallen back to 16%, putting him dead even with Texas Congressman Ron Paul who also earns 16%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/south_carolina/election_2012_south_carolina_republican_primary

He also has a huge lead in Florida..

Coming off his decisive win in Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary, Romney earns 41% support with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich a distant second at 19%. A new telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters finds former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum running third with 15% of the vote.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/2012_florida_republican_primary

I really think its over.

[Are_grits_groceries]

7. Rasmussen sucks to put it delicately. nt

[DCBob]

8. Yeah, especially when polling Democrats..

but I think he's mostly honest when its just Rethugs.

[customerserviceguy]

10. Agreed

I actually give Rasmussen a lot more credulity than most people here, and yes, especially when they're polling GOP'ers.

If Romney does win SC and FL, then you can give the credit or blame to the fact that a lot of Northeastern baby boomers have moved to those states, and taken their political sensibilities with them. That, and the fact that Willard has played "divide and conquer" quite well. Expect him to try it on the entire electorate.

[aaaaaa5a]

9. The same poll has Romney beating Obama by just 46-40 in South Carolina

http://www.boiseweekly.com/CityDesk/archives/2012/01/15/poll-romney-with-commanding-lead-in-south-carolina



Internet polls are not to be trusted. The are unreliable.

[Hippo_Tron]

11. It's impossible to get a random sample by polling online

It's hard enough to get one over the phone, considering that your sample only consists of people who are willing to take the time to respond to a pollster, whereas many people don't answer or just hang up. And yes registered versus likely voters is another problem, especially given that turnout in primaries is much lower than in general elections.

This "poll" isn't worth the paper it's printed on. That said, Willard will be the Republican nominee regardless of what this poll says and regardless of how he does in South Carolina.