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Nevilledog

(51,080 posts) Thu Sep 1, 2022, 02:07 PM Sep 2022

The Imminent Election Crisis in Brazil

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Cas Mudde 🪩
@CasMudde
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Re-posting this, as it flies a bit under the radar in many countries, but the upcoming Brazilian elections could turn South very quickly and badly. @BrazilBrian has an excellent but worrying piece on it. #Brazil #Bolsonaro

americasquarterly.org
The Imminent Election Crisis in Brazil
Still trailing in polls, Bolsonaro seems determined to stay in power. AQ’s editor-in-chief examines potential scenarios for the confrontation ahead.
11:03 AM · Sep 1, 2022

https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/the-imminent-election-crisis-in-brazil/

Let’s get right to the point: I do not believe that President Jair Bolsonaro will ever willingly hand over power to his rival in this October’s election, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. If Lula wins, as polls currently suggest he will, there will be an institutional crisis in Brazil in coming months. The only question is what it will look like—and who will ultimately prevail.

Bolsonaro has made his intentions abundantly clear over the past year. Influenced by his belief that Donald Trump won the 2020 election in the United States, and determined to avoid a similar fate (or worse), Bolsonaro has pursued a multi-pronged, if often erratic strategy. He has repeatedly cast doubt on the integrity of Brazil’s electronic voting system, and said he will only accept a result that he deems “auditable”—an impossible bar, since Congress voted last year not to modify the system. He has portrayed Lula not just as an opponent but an illegitimate, “criminal” threat who “can only win via fraud.” Meanwhile, anticipating a confrontation, the one-time Army Captain has deepened his ties to Brazil’s military, appointing retired generals to key posts, including as his running mate. With numerous legal cases pending against him and his family, Bolsonaro has said he sees only three possible futures: “Prison, being killed or victory.” He continues to act as if he genuinely believes that to be true.

It is still possible that Bolsonaro wins this election. Polls have shown a significant narrowing of the race since March, although Lula retains a comfortable lead of seven to 15 percentage points in most. Brazil’s economy is improving, with unemployment falling below 9%, its lowest level since 2015, while inflation has also apparently peaked. Bolsonaro has pumped billions of dollars into the economy to boost his chances, including a 50% increase in the payout of Brazil’s main social welfare program. His social media machine remains formidable and unscrupulous. Evangelical Christians, so key to his 2018 victory, seem to be rallying once again to his side.

But time is running out, and the most likely scenario remains a Lula victory. Some of Bolsonaro’s allies have told me (and others) that the president would willingly transfer power to anyone else—but not the leftist who governed Brazil from 2003 to 2010, then spent time in prison until corruption charges against him were overturned by the courts. “We all want democracy, but giving power back to a criminal like Lula would be the end of democracy in Brazil,” one source said. I do not agree, but that is how many bolsonaristas see the stakes. And they are preparing to act accordingly.

*snip*