Independent Voters Now Tilting Toward Democrats in Midterm Elections, WSJ Poll Finds
Democrats are entering the homestretch before November’s election in better shape than earlier this year, boosted by gains among independent voters, improved views of President Biden and higher voting enthusiasm among abortion-rights supporters, a Wall Street Journal poll shows.
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Democrats hold a slight edge over Republicans, 47% to 44%, when voters are asked which party they would support in their congressional district if the election were held today, a lead that is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points. Republicans had a five-point advantage in March. The Democratic gains come from increased support among independents, women and younger voters. Black and Hispanic voters, who have traditionally favored Democrats heavily, are also more solidly supportive of the party than they were earlier this year. Among political independents, typically the key to victory in close elections, more voters now favor a Democratic candidate for Congress than a Republican, 38% to 35%. In March, Republicans led among independents by 12 percentage points.
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At 60%, those who say abortion should be legal in all or most cases represent a majority of voters, up 5 percentage points from March. More than half of voters say the Supreme Court’s elimination of the federal constitutional right to an abortion has made them more likely to vote. In a separate question, voters cited the court ruling as the single issue most likely to make them vote this November, ahead of four other issues tested, including inflation, border security, gun violence and the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s search of former President Donald Trump’s Florida home. The court (Roe) ruling was especially salient for white, suburban women, a group known for switching between the two parties in recent elections and who say they would back a Democratic candidate over a Republican, 52% to 40%.
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Mr. Biden looks like less of a drag on his party’s candidates than earlier this year. His job approval has risen to 45%, up from 42% in March, while 54% disapprove of his performance... Favorable views of Mr. Trump declined slightly, and Mr. Biden leads him in a hypothetical rematch of the last presidential election, 50% to 44%. The two men had been tied in March. In the test match-up, Mr. Biden leads among independents, 46% to 38%. The survey was largely taken before Mr. Biden’s decision to cancel student debt for millions of Americans, a move Republicans have called a handout to college graduates at the expense of others that they hope to turn into a top line of attack. Many Democratic officials say the president’s move would create economic opportunity for Americans struggling to pay off college debts.
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Voters trust Democrats more than Republicans on ensuring that the rich and corporations pay their fair share in taxes, lowering prescription drug costs, reducing gun violence and improving education, the poll found. They trust Republicans over Democrats to reduce crime, secure the border and fix the immigration system.
The Wall Street Journal poll of 1,313 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points, was conducted Aug. 17-25 by Impact Research and Fabrizio, Lee & Associates. Half of the interviews were done on cellphones, with the remaining split evenly between landline phones and text messaging accompanied by an online survey.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/democratic-midterm-prospects-improve-as-races-heat-up-wsj-poll-finds-11662024601 (subscription)
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of our Dem Leaders!
Many chose to stay home in 1968 because Humphrey was not anti war enough; and many chose to stay home in 2016 because they did not like Hillary, or something..
