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catbyte

(34,174 posts)
Thu Sep 8, 2022, 11:34 AM Sep 2022

The 2022 midterm elections -- and what the data really says

Sarah K. Burris
September 07, 2022

WASHINGTON, D.C. — MSNBC's Steve Kornacki spoke about a shift he was seeing in the electorate heading into November after the Aug. 23 primary and special elections in New York, when passionately pro-choice Democrat Pat Ryan trounced his opponent. Until very recently, the only real data that could illustrate the impact of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision was a Kansas ballot measure that would amend the state’s constitution to make it easy to ban abortion outright in the state. On August 2, 2022, voters resoundingly rejected this amendment.

Weeks later, data is now starting to roll in showing two major trends for 2022 midterm elections that could prevent Republicans from getting the "red wave" they were banking on.

Republican Margaret Hoover told CNN's Jim Acosta on Sunday that the Supreme Court Dobbs decision would have a huge impact on the midterms.

"When this happened, when Roe v. Wade was overturned, I talked to Republican consultant after Republican consultant, who said, 'Meh, it's already baked in the cake. This isn't going to hurt the Republicans. This will not be an issue in the election,'" said Hoover. "I'm a pro-choice Republican. There are not many of us left. I sensed they were wrong and they pointed to data that didn't add up. You are seeing that now. You see how motivated suburban women are. This is an impact this is playing in November."

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Full article

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From the sources cited in this article, if e women vote in November, the GQP is toast. For example, here in Michigan:

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thucythucy

(7,986 posts)
1. It would be so delicious if we held not only the Senate but also the House.
Thu Sep 8, 2022, 11:47 AM
Sep 2022

After which the GOP would no doubt go on a frenzy of finger pointing and eating their own.

MerryHolidays

(7,715 posts)
3. It would be wonderful!
Thu Sep 8, 2022, 11:51 AM
Sep 2022

Of course, our R "friends" would also immediately and falsely claim the elections were rigged.

I will take that any day over the alternativel

unblock

(51,974 posts)
4. Nah, they'd just insist that so many more people voting for democrats is proof of voter fraud.
Thu Sep 8, 2022, 11:54 AM
Sep 2022

They're pretty much at the point where they think they're the god-approved party and therefore it's simply impossible for them to lose a legitimate election.

lees1975

(3,726 posts)
7. There are signs that point to this happening.
Thu Sep 8, 2022, 01:24 PM
Sep 2022

Who'd have ever thought a Democrat could represent Alaska? The infighting between Begich and Palin bodes well for Democrats to keep that seat. And the generic poll is one thing, which looks much better than it did three months ago, but things look even better if you go district by district. The one "close" district in my area isn't nearly as close as it was last election cycle. Democrats are also doing really well raising money. The trend lines also favor the Democrats. Polling averages lag behind but the more current polls are showing a clear blue shift. I will not be surprised if on election night, the Democrats gain as many as a dozen house seats and 5 in the Senate.

Johnny2X2X

(18,745 posts)
2. Silent Majority
Thu Sep 8, 2022, 11:50 AM
Sep 2022

For a generation, Republicans have been being told that they're the silent majority. They really think that the majority thinks like they do, they lack the ability to appreciate that others have different views than they do. It's what makes the Big Lie so easy to peddle to them, "Well gosh darn it, no one I know seems like a Biden voter, so there's no way Biden won."

It's the same with abortion, the Right drastically underestimated how many Americans cherish the right of women to make choices about their own bodies and lives. It was the proverbial 3rd rail, but Republicans miscalculated.

And the pollsters still don't know quite what to do with the data they've seen. Kansas and NY-19 are the 2 most valid data points and they indicate a massive blue wave is coming. But they're only 2 data points and they were months out from the mid terms.

So the polling isn't going to figure in Roe at all, there's no way to really do it. And so the polling indicates the Dems hold the Senate and the Reps take the House, each about 70%-30% chance of happening right now. A 2 point miss in the polls could completely blow that up though, and there's data to suggest there will be a several point miss in the polls because of Roe.

This is going to be one for the history books. Dems have a chance to consolidate control all across the country and start to rebuild our democracy and the middle class.

Hermit-The-Prog

(33,041 posts)
8. A blue wave can overwhelm voter suppression, gerrymandering, and election deniers.
Thu Sep 8, 2022, 02:25 PM
Sep 2022

Women are not going to tolerate government-forced incubation and birth.

Roe, Roe, Roe your vote
against theocracy!
Republicans revoke your rights
and kill democracy!

Donate to 38 House candidates: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217067267
Stick 'em up for a blue wave: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217078977

peggysue2

(10,811 posts)
9. The Roe reversal was huge
Thu Sep 8, 2022, 03:48 PM
Sep 2022

Republicans may comfort themselves with believing the decision was 'baked into the cake' but the uptick in voter registrations among women of all ages is stunning since Dobbs. Women are beyond pissed.

Listened to a podcast yesterday with Mike Madrid, the voter trend and data guy with the Lincoln Project. He said it's the most profound shift he's seen in his 30-year career and if the trend continues it could be huge, a complete turn-around in what was considered an automatic win for the Repugs. The Dobbs decision, the J-6 committee findings, Trump making himself a spectacle and now the Mar-a-Lago fiasco have all had an effect on the electorate's mindset. Not to mention the over-the-top crazies running for office.

Democracy is on the ballot.

If the trend continues? Dems are going to have a very good election with most pundits now expecting we'll keep the Senate with a good possibility of adding to our majority. The House is still in question but is no longer a slam dunk for the GOP. In fact, Madrid predicted that without a substantial win for the GOP in the House (20+ seats) as was originally expected, we're likely to see a civil war within the Republican Party.

LOL. Good times!

Vinca

(50,170 posts)
10. I think there will be a secret Republican vote for Dems because of the Roe decision.
Thu Sep 8, 2022, 03:54 PM
Sep 2022

They'll claim they voted for the Republican, but in the secrecy of the voting booth who would know.

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