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Ukraine is giving the world and especially Russia a hell of a show....
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1568319528232181761.htmlAchtung Panzer!, Kharkiv Front 🧵
This is what successful armored warfare looks like. There are many aspects to what appears to have made this operation work & I'd like to briefly go over a few of them. We'll start from the top & work our way down.
1/
The UAF have pulled off a remarkable strategic deception. By initiating, even telegraphing, an offensive in OpComSouth as their main effort they have successfully induced the Russian command to transfer a considerable number of troops south. Including some higher quality
2/
formations. This seems to have denuded the Russians opposite OpComEast of ready reserves & robust combat units in general. Furthermore the UAF was able to mass combat power in excess of what many analysts (including myself, I must admit) thought was possible.
3/
The UAF have now effectively launched two assaults in two seperate operational areas. A fixing attack at Kherson that the Russians cannot ignore, & an armored/mech deep penetration strike into the rear of Russian forces in the east. This will force Russian commanders to make
4/
hard choices with scarce reserves of combat formations capable of standing up to heavy UAF formations, many of whom are currently out of position to immediately engage thanks to the aforementioned deception in the South. Any redeployment will take time Russia doesn't have.
5/
This appears to have been a coordinated plan. Now to the tactical/operational side. UAF assault units, composed primarily of armored & mechanized formations acting in concert (quantity unknown), overran and shattered Russian front line units - reportedly composed heavily of
6/
DPR/LPR units. UAF formations then maintained the momentum of their advance, continuing deep into the Russian rear areas & preventing Russian lines from reforming & solidifying. The breach was then widened & exploited by follow on units, to a point that it appears to be
7/
destabilizing the entire front north & west of Izium. Russian units in the area of advance have not yet been able to reform coherently enough to mount an effective defense. Those areas (primarily urban) where Russian troops have held together have, correctly, been bypassed
8/
by UAF spearhead units. Pocketed &isolated, these Russians are/will likely be surrounded & compelled to surrender in short order. The UAF has placed primacy on speed & violence of action so as not to slow down their assault units & allow the Russians time to recover.
9/
Currently the Russians are scrambling to reinforce their lines. Lead UAF elements appear to be driving on Kupyansk as their primary objective - a major railway nexus supplying Russian formations. Taking it would have strategic implications for the entire eastern front.
10/
There are already reports of UAF units in or near the outskirts of the city, given the condition of Russian resistance - they are highly plausible IMO. Further information indicates UAF units are expanding their breach south, with an eastern boundary along the Oskol river.
11/
If the Russians cannot swiftly bring additional forces to bear, this could conceivably put the city of Izium into play from the north. Even if they can, this assault has effectively reordered the situation in OpComEast already.
12/
Going forward: the butchers bill for Russian forces from this operation is unlikely to be low in either man or materiel, neither of which they can afford. UAF losses are likely to be substantial, but less than would be expected given the swift collapse of RU forward units.
13/
If the UAF can keep them on their heels until their own planned halt points are reached, it will climb higher. The danger for the UAF will be overextension. They will be tempted to continue on once reaching their own pre-planned stop lines, given RU performance.
14/
This must be resisted. The UAF will need time to reorganize, refit, consolidate its lines of supply & communication, deal with rear-area holdouts, & then ready itself for a fresh offensive. Given its performance to date, I am optimistic this concern will be heeded.
15/
In the back of every good analyst's mind for 7 months has been at least one question: "What will Ukraine look like on offense?"
We're finding out. They're giving us all a hell of a show on their 1st time out.
16/16
Addition: This is almost moving faster than I can write it. There are now (thank you to those who directed me to them) reports that UAF units are hitting Izium from the south with heavy fighting within the city limits. The entire tenor of the war in the east has changed.
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It sounds like Ukranian is raising some hell in Kharkiv Oblast. The Russian high command must be shitting bricks right now. 
I wrote it, and my friends and I made it, so I knew where it was the whole time 
We have the studio do the legal advisories, but they are protected as parodies. I have never tried to sell any of them. I even offered to do stuff for Democratic campaigns for free, but none of them dared take me up on them. It seems that my lyrics are too biting for them to dare using them (good! that means I wasn't being too mild). Not even the environmental movements dared use something like "Miss Me." I do it for the fun, not for money, so I don't care. Who would pay to see me put on a show of this stuff, anyway?
My brother occasionally takes a stab at writing lyrics, too. A couple of times, his efforts were so good, that after tweaking them a bit, I had the gang in Atlanta record them and got videos made of them.
These are his two:
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I have done a few about other Republicans than Moscow Mitch:
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The very versatile Deb Bowman sang all the women's parts in the above except Rubio. It's hard to believe the same woman sang them all. She's really talented. Chanda Leigh sang Rubio. She also did "Respect for Hillary," which I did right after the 2016 election. For some reason, that one never caught on
You can see Chanda hiding in the middle of the three "backup" singers at the lower left:
I'm really proud of our music team and our vocal talent. Whenever I think something up, even if they aren't familiar with the tune I want to use, they figure it out, and are good enough musicians to do a sound track that is close enough to the original to make the parody effective. Since Atlanta is not exactly around the corner from me, I don't often have a chance to be on the videos, but sometimes, though the miracles of the internet, and studio technology, I do sneak in on occasion, such as this one:
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