Rumors coming out of Kherson about a negotiated surrender in the south

[Ex Lurker]

on Telegram channels from both sides.

[SheilaAnn]

1. I'm praying for this, thank you for the heads-up..n/t

[honest.abe]

2. I assume this means the Russians surrendering.

Correct?

[Ex Lurker]

3. Correct nt

[867-5309.]

4. We need a negotiated end to the whole thing.

But I don't hear much at all about that.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

7. Not on Putin's terms.

[Bucky]

8. Putin will want to hang on to Crimea

Zelenskyy is determined to get that back. You might get a ceasefire, but Russia won't surrender.

[Buckeyeblue]

9. Yes. But it's in his best interest to end this quickly now

That said, I think Putin is in his last days.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

12. Putin will not be driving the agenda.

And he will not willingly settle for Ukraine's terms via negotiations.

[Buckeyeblue]

13. Does he have a choice?

[Just A Box Of Rain]

14. Not really.

He would never agree to the maximalist UKR terms and it is unlikely they will settle for less.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

10. Putin would insist on the Donbas (or at least that portion that was under de facto Russian control

as of 2014, as well as holding Crimea.

I don't see UKR settling for such scenarios. Not a chance.

[grantcart]

18. The solution is to declare Port Krym an "international waterway" like the Suez Canal or

the Panama Canal with a neutral land corridor to Russia.

The area would be under Ukraine legal soveriegnty but it would be administered by a neutral commission made up of Russian, Ukrainian and third country commissioners. They would contract with neutral company for management just like Panama.

Under international law once a sea route has been opened permanently for passage then any country has the right to interced militarily to open the passage, just like we have the right to keep the Panama Canal open (or the Suez Canal or the Straits of Hormuz or the Straits of Malacca.

For 500 years Russia has worked to get a warm water port. No country in the world has successfully developed that doesn't have 12 month access to shipping. I believe that after Putin is removed then this will be the negotiated settlement that works for both sides - Ukraine keeps soveriegnty, their port and independence, Russia gets legal access to a warm water port.

[867-5309.]

15. There are a lot of reasons to end this

Ukraine probably isn't capable of expelling the Russians. Meanwhile, the global economy deteriorates, Europe faces recession and an energy crisis, food insecurity increases, death and destruction in Ukraine itself continues. A generation of Ukrainians have lost their chilhood. The risk of a dangerous escalation is still festering and support for Ukraine could soften as time passes and leaderships change.

We can pound our chests about Putin, but I'm more interested in what's good for the world.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

16. I entirely disagree with the premise that UKR isn't capable of expelling Putin's forces

from Ukrainian territory. In fact, we were watching them do just that.

The costs to world security would be higher if Putin feels emboldened by the agression and it would sent the wrong message to China and other powers who are contemplating expansionism.

Putin is facing defeat on the battlefield. It is in the interest of the free world that we don't truncate that defeat by providing Putin with a partial victory.

Putin emerging with less than total defeat would be very bad for the world--and not a plus.

[867-5309.]

17. Russia is struggling in Ukraine

and now we're supposed to believe he's going to roll on if we negotiate a settlement? Particularly NATO countries? He's probably looking for an off ramp from the whole thing.

As for China, what countries and they looking to overrun? When is the last time they "expanded"?

[Just A Box Of Rain]

19. Taiwan.

Have you not been paying attention?

[867-5309.]

21. That's been going on for decades

I don't think our next move in Ukraine has much bearing on their approach.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

22. And once again, I could not disagree more.

China has been on a tear, rapidly building up a naval invasion force.

I believe that Putin's misadventure is giving Xi pause.

The worst thing we could do for the stability of the world is to let Putin off the hook. That would be a massive blunder in my estimation.

[Kaleva]

20. Allowing Russian forces to vacate all UKR territory, including Crimea

and the Donbass, without being attacked would be a good compromise.

[Kingofalldems]

11. We need a surrender.

[PortTack]

5. Russia needs to go home! Then negotiate.

[NCjack]

6. In a Russian negotiation, they keep what they currently have and demand more.

It would be a mistake to stop the push, which Russia would use to consolidate and bring in more troops and supplies.

Give them two choices: Run home or be buried in UKR.