Arizona Senate - Masters vs. Kelly Emerson poll

[Polybius]

Emerson has Kelly at 47% (Incumbent Democrat), and Masters (Republican) at 45%. Can anyone tell me how reliable Emerson is? I know that they have A+ rating by 538, but how have they fared in 2018 and 2020?

They also have Hobbs and Lake tied at 46% for Governor.

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/arizona-2022-mark-kelly-faces-tight-race-with-blake-masters-katie-hobbs-and-kari-lake-in-dead-heat-for-governorship/

[Elessar Zappa]

1. I think it's fairly reliable.

I believe Kelly will win but maybe we need to toss a few bucks his way just to be sure.

[Demsrule86]

9. It is not reliable. They use landlines weighted samples and answering machine protocols...

They use historical data and add stuff they think is important...in addition to landlines they use online info/participants which they give no data on. And in this poll, they have way to few women who are huge for Mark Kelly.

[Elessar Zappa]

12. That's good to know!

We definitely can’t afford to lose that seat. Truth be told, I think we have a chance of getting 54 Dems in office after November.

[Sky Jewels]

2. Pathetic if that is even remotely accurate.

Come on, Arizona. Crush these R loons.

[panader0]

3. Pathetic was the word I was going to use too.

[Polybius]

4. If a nut like Masters is this close, I'd imagine a Romney-type Republican would win

Good thing they went with the nut.

[Sky Jewels]

5. True.

I'm hoping the likely voter models are off because of Dobbs, and that Kelly actually has a bigger lead.

[brooklynite]

6. Before you send him money, visit FEC.gov and see how much cash he has...

It’s a lot.

Better off giving to Hobbs, which will produce up ticket synergies.

[Polybius]

13. She just said no to a debate

That doesn't look good, I'll donate elsewhere.

https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-arizona-campaigns-government-and-politics-540ee7c3603d522c4e12c4e7083443b5

[Demsrule86]

7. I don't believe that...the GOP stopped spending in Arizona.

I checked the polls and the only ones that have it this close is Trafalgar and Emerson...The first is a right-wing poll known to have a bias. The second uses landlines and in their own polls women are huge for Kelly but as they limited the number of women called and we have no information on their 'online participants' in terms of sex or anything else for that matter...the women's vote which is huge for Kelly likely doesn't show up in this poll. It is also +- 7 points. They also use historical factors and Biden's popularity (which as usual is underrated by the media)...not sure any of that applies this year either. But my main issue with this posting is you as usual ignore the good polls for Kelly. What is up with that. Whey the doom and gloom?

[Polybius]

14. Look at the polling average

It's 5.4 points, still way too close. Good news doesn't get people to polls as much as a close race. I'm hoping I can motivate at least a few.

[budkin]

8. I've tended to blow off Emerson polls in the last few cycles because I didn't like them

But they've ended up being extremely accurate. This is terrible news, but it could also be an outlier.

[Demsrule86]

10. They are accurate at the end. Often before that they are way out. One wonders if there is a bias.

Caller ID

"The Emerson College Polling survey of Arizona voters was conducted September 6-7, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely general election voters, n=627, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.85 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, party affiliation, and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, a web survey via email, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines." The 3.8 error is off if you dig deeper...

[grantcart]

11. You can't look at any one poll.

Every single poll shows Kelly ahead.

All of the polls show Masters ceiling at 45, some at 39.

Kelly has excellent ads running that show clips of Masters making insane statements.

I haven't seen a single Masters ad yet.

The anti Kelly PAC ads that railed against Biden/Kelly have disappeared.

Also please understand that all statewide races in AZ are very close. Sinema won by 3% and there is very little movement. There simple are not that many "persuadeables" in AZ.

Also the "pre election surprise" this year was the Supreme Court decision on abortion. All polls make assumptions on turnout based on previous elections. There is no previous election where many women feel that they have been reduced in political power.

As long as Masters is at 45 or below we are going to win. The best case scenario for AZ is that we win by 6 points maximum.