Politico: Abortion puts GOP candidates on their heels in top governors races

[brooklynite]

The battle over abortion rights will be won or lost in state capitals, not Washington.

That reality has in the past three months upended battleground governor races — where the winners could quite literally determine the level of access to abortion for millions of women.

And the way candidates are running on the issue could hardly be more polarized: Democrats are going all in. Republicans want to change the topic.

Spending on abortion-related ads shows how thoroughly abortion has transformed these races, giving Democrats an opening to go on offense in an otherwise challenging year for them to be on the ballot.



https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/25/abortion-gop-candidates-governors-races-00058713

[intheflow]

1. Stop already with the tired meme that Dems would lose save for abortion.

Last edited Sun Sep 25, 2022, 12:03 PM - Edit history (1)

Yes, it's a huge factor, but Biden is kicking ass on many fronts:

Lower gas prices
Improving economy
End of pandemic
Student debt relief
Ended US involvement in Afghanistan

Meanwhile, we know the GOP is losing support in droves as the MAGA crowd talks about repealing the 19th Amendment, reversing Obergefell, banning books, gun humping, and Trump's ever-widening circle of crimes. Even if those GOP don't leave the party (yet), all of these factors is likely to suppress GOP turnout in November. We live in unprecedented times and it's delusional for all these news agencies to be surprised unprecedented things are happening.

[brooklynite]

2. I've seen DNC private polling...

Despite the improving economy, inflation and cost of living is the top concern. Second isabortion rights.

[Demsrule86]

5. Roe is close enough...to the economy to really help us. And I have seen polls that

that show Roe tied or winning as the top issue. I do not believe polls with their historical slant and the way they the sexes in the poll will catch the Roe wave. I look at Kansas and 19 and I think we win the Senate and quite likely the House. Time will tell.

[brooklynite]

6. A Senior DCCC person told me "right now, we don't have the majority...but we can"

Given population distribution and gerrymandering, most seat are not that competive. And Democrats have to defend more than Republicans do. It’s doable, but not easy.

[Sky Jewels]

9. It's all about turnout, of course. Women are fired up and pissed off.

I don't think the polls are quite capturing the feeling on the ground.

[Demovictory9]

11. Agreed

[Elessar Zappa]

12. I know of at least one race

that we may flip from Republican to Democrat. Yvette Herrell vs. Gabe Vasquez in NM, district 2. Last I checked, the race is neck and neck. If there’s similar races across the country, we may keep the House.

[brooklynite]

13. There are 29 vulnerable Democratic seats and only 10 vulnerable Republicans.

The problem is that we can only lose net 5 seats.

[intheflow]

7. Yeah, well, private DNC polling showed HRC winning in 2016,

albeit winning by a very close margin. After that election, I don't trust polls unless the margins are extraordinary (10+/- points).

[brooklynite]

8. These weren't candidate polls. These were polls on voter concerns.

[LakeArenal]

3. I agree totally. Media wants a horse race.

I’m not sure if voters think so.

Everyday we hear: Young people registering in droves. Hispanics dumping trump. Women of both parties irate.

Everyday media calls out one more Republican for their lies. Unheard of the last few years.



PLUS: All you stated above.

See ya back here Nov 9 to celebrate.

[Demsrule86]

4. I believe Roe is the reason we win the midterm. Only twice in history has the presidents party

won the midterm...Roosevelt and Bush II...you could count Clinton in 96 but that was a second midterm. Thus I don't count it.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

10. Biden is not on the ballot for November. Lots of NatCs are.

Roe your vote up and down the ballot!

Roe, Roe, Roe your vote
against theocracy!
Republicans revoke your rights
and kill democracy!

THESE are the races that will determine control of the House of Representatives:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217175231

Stick 'em up for a blue wave: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217078977