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Harry Enten: Why Stacey Abrams is a clear underdog in Georgia
The problem for Abrams isn't that she lacks devoted followers. About as many voters in Monmouth's poll said they were definitely voting for Abrams (33%) as did for Kemp (34%). A higher percentage of Abrams supporters said they were very enthusiastically backing their candidate (74%) than Kemp supporters (58%) in the CBS News poll.
Abrams' issue is that the candidate well known for her efforts to drive up voter turnout seems to be lagging among swing voters. Kemp leads by 10 points among independents in the average of recent polls.
Perhaps by going against then-President Donald Trump and certifying the 2020 presidential vote in the state, Kemp has managed to pull in a portion of 2020 Biden voters -- 11% of them, per the Marist poll. Abrams is winning 5% of Trump voters, the survey found. In a state where the presidential election was determined by 0.24 points in 2020, this makes all the difference.
And while Kemp does best among voters most likely to turn out, he leads among all registered voters too. In other words, his edge over Abrams is not merely about turnout.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/25/politics/stacey-abrams-kemp-election-desantis-trump/index.html
Abrams' issue is that the candidate well known for her efforts to drive up voter turnout seems to be lagging among swing voters. Kemp leads by 10 points among independents in the average of recent polls.
Perhaps by going against then-President Donald Trump and certifying the 2020 presidential vote in the state, Kemp has managed to pull in a portion of 2020 Biden voters -- 11% of them, per the Marist poll. Abrams is winning 5% of Trump voters, the survey found. In a state where the presidential election was determined by 0.24 points in 2020, this makes all the difference.
And while Kemp does best among voters most likely to turn out, he leads among all registered voters too. In other words, his edge over Abrams is not merely about turnout.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/25/politics/stacey-abrams-kemp-election-desantis-trump/index.html
Before you complain about CNN, remember that Harry Enten has been a respected political data analyst for years.
