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brooklynite

(93,843 posts)
Sun Sep 25, 2022, 01:32 PM Sep 2022

The Hill: Projected Republican House majority narrows: CBS model

CBS News on Sunday lowered its projection of a Republican House majority after the midterms as Democrats see glimmers of hope to salvage their standing in November’s elections.

The network’s model, managed alongside YouGov, continues to predict Republicans will flip Democrats’ razor-thin majority in the House, but CBS now estimates Republicans will win 223 seats, down from 226 in August and 230 in July.

The sitting president’s party typically loses seats in the midterm elections, a stark reality for Democrats, who barely hold a majority with 221 seats. Either party needs to win a total of 218 seats to take the House majority.

Republicans have long been predicted to retake the House in the midterms, an expectation that grew as inflation rose to a 40-year high and President Biden’s approval rating ticked down.


https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3660163-projected-republican-house-majority-narrows-cbs-model/
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The Hill: Projected Republican House majority narrows: CBS model (Original Post) brooklynite Sep 2022 OP
This message was self-deleted by its author karynnj Sep 2022 #1
I like that trend and hope it stays the same. If the rate of loss stays constant, it looks like we karynnj Sep 2022 #2
30% is no small chance ColinC Sep 2022 #3
I certainly hope so and the momentum is going that way! karynnj Sep 2022 #5
Me too. Fingers crossed Demovictory9 Sep 2022 #6
We have the momentum right now. Elessar Zappa Sep 2022 #4
That national Rs are Deminpenn Sep 2022 #7
In one of the touted 20 or so "swing House districts", my Representative Elissa Slotkin has been DemocraticPatriot Sep 2022 #8

Response to brooklynite (Original post)

karynnj

(59,474 posts)
2. I like that trend and hope it stays the same. If the rate of loss stays constant, it looks like we
Sun Sep 25, 2022, 01:37 PM
Sep 2022

Have a good chance to keep the majority. Yes, I know 538 gives us just a 30 percent chance.

ColinC

(8,227 posts)
3. 30% is no small chance
Sun Sep 25, 2022, 04:09 PM
Sep 2022

And it is increasing daily. Remember, Trump had about a 30% chance to win. Undecideds will split toward the party with the momentum.

Deminpenn

(15,246 posts)
7. That national Rs are
Sun Sep 25, 2022, 04:29 PM
Sep 2022

targeting PA-17 which is the northern half of Allegheny county indicates they are lot more worried about winning the House than they are letting on.

DemocraticPatriot

(4,170 posts)
8. In one of the touted 20 or so "swing House districts", my Representative Elissa Slotkin has been
Sun Sep 25, 2022, 04:58 PM
Sep 2022

threatened with defeat by the GOP candidate in polls all year, in a new district which is calculated to be "+2 Trump".
(Michigan CD-7)


HOWEVER.... a recent poll now shows her with a 16 point lead over GOP State Senator Tom Barrett, 56-38% !!!!

https://deadlinedetroit.com/articles/31227/poll_dems_slotkin_has_commanding_lead_over_gop_s_barrett_in_michigan_s_7th_congressional_race_abortion_a_factor


I am mighty relieved by this news... and I am inclined to believe that the GOP could be in for a big surprise on the House side, come November... in other "swing districts" as well as this one.


On the airwaves here, we have been pounded by advertising by both sides in the past 2 weeks, plus the DCCC and RCCC and possibly other players, over this race... but Tom Barrett seems to be running the least ads of anyone. The RCCC has been running a lot of negative ads, but they seem pretty stupid to me. ("Rep. Slotkin has voted 100% with Joe Biden, OMGGG!&quot lol

(These ads are all on broadcast TV, I don't have cable.)

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