Pollsters Fear They're Blowing It Again

[ColinC]

Last edited Mon Sep 26, 2022, 09:39 AM - Edit history (2)

Link to tweet

?s=19

(Yes, the accounts are satire while the politico article is real)

[samnsara]

1. this is a parody acct..at least thats what it says on the twitter acct

..lets hope so at least...

[Freethinker65]

2. +1000

Yep. Generates ridiculously spun headlines.

[ColinC]

4. Yeah. The article is real tho

Although the point of the parody is more what I was trying to get at in order to highlight the ridiculousness of what the pollsters say in the article.

[Deminpenn]

3. Regardless, the link is to a Politico story

that's an interesting read.

Apparently pollsters just do not want to believe that Trump - and only Trump - has a cultlike hold on the people who vote for him. If he's not on the ballot, they don't bother to vote. It was so obvious in 2020 with the two special runoff elections for Senate in GA, a mere two months after Biden beat Trump. R turnout was down from November, but D turnout stayed high.

In 2016 Trump voters did come out of the woodwork to vote for him. In 2020, both the cultists and the never-Trumpers turned out. The never-Trumpers voted for Biden/3rd party/write-in that helped Biden win, but both the cultists and never-Trumpers voted for Rs down ballot giving Rs more wins that might have been expected.
That made both the 2016 and 2020 elections unique in each case.

But the pollsters are still trying to include the cultists in the LV models even though elections results outside the two presidential years with Trump on the ballot show these voters remain unlikely to vote. Further, Trump himself is losing steam because Americans generally have a very short attention span. Yes, the cultists who follow him around like Deadheads follow the Grateful Dead are still around, but everyone else seems to be moving on.

[ColinC]

5. This is a solid point.

Add to that the ground game that Dems struggled with in 2020 due to covid, and the obvious Dobbs ruling that will likely turnout women and D voters en mass.

[Johnny2X2X]

6. So many unknowns

From redistricting, to Roe being overturn. It's hard to know what's what this time around. You got a faltering economy, but you've also got a ton of legislative victories for the party in power.

I believe it will come down to Roe. Has the voter's anger over this subsided some? Are women motivated to sweep their local elections? We shall see.

I can only speak to what I see here in MI, but abortion is the central issue. Dems are leaning into it and running on it. It's going to be on the ballot here as a ballot initiative. Michigan is going to take a hard left turn, of that I am fairly certain.

[ramen]

7. This is satire, Doug Balloon makes fun of the bothesidesing in

the NY Times and other media. Take a look through is account, he is very good at it. He does also link to articles he finds absurd that illustrate his point.

[ColinC]

8. Posted with the full understanding of this :)

Politico article is real tho and Pollsters are ridiculous.

[ramen]

9. I hear you there. nt

[lees1975]

10. I think the evidence shows otherwise, that the pollsters are wrong

because they are underestimating the effect of women planning to vote for Democrats.

Geez, they just can't get out of this "party in power in the white house loses the midterms" rut they are in.

[Wounded Bear]

11. Hearing a lot of reporting on the percentage of women registering this cycle as well...

Female registrations are up, and rising faster than male registrations in many areas.

I'm cautiously optimistic this cycle.

[Deminpenn]

12. Pollsters have the yips because they failed to account

for the unique-to-him circumstances of Trump on the ballot. Now they think the exception is the rule, but it's not.

The election results are showing Trump doesn't have the kind of pull pollsters assume because his endorsed candidates have lost and others, like Mastriano who was already ahead and was going to win the PA R governor primary, Trump just jumped on the bandwagon with an essentially meaningless endorsement.

There's no doubt the kooks have taken over R closed primary voting, though.