I'm perplexed about those Floridians who had the capacity and ability to leave

[no_hypocrisy]

ahead of Ian, but opted to stay b/c they didn't trust scientific data about the prospective danger. They may have had magical thinking. They may have prayed. They could have been downright ignorant. And they stayed.

And they still won't trust the science after the nightmare.

[Dorian Gray]

1. Every hurricane in every location

has people who choose to stay and end up in danger. It's human nature.

[Ford_Prefect]

55. The impulse for flight or fight is a confusing one when it comes to decision making.

Gut responses really do influence our choices more often than we realize.

Deciding to leave initiates a sequence of events that can be daunting even if you have prepared yourself for the decision. If you haven't then thinking about it can be overwhelming since it involves abandoning your home, belongings, and neighbors for a very uncertain future, even though you understand the threat posed by staying.

[Dorian Gray]

78. absolutely

Also, everybody hopes it won't be as bad as predicted, and they want to be close to home to fix anything that may need immediate fixing. (The problem with that is your life isn't worth fixing a house.)

It's all confusing and the way storms are tracked can change upon a dime.

[multigraincracker]

2. Tradition.

Happens every time.

[Pacifist Patriot]

3. Very few people stay because they don't trust science and data.

Those who stay do so for often highly personal reasons and/or financial reasons. Evacuation is expensive. It is logistically challenging. Hunkering down isn't just for dumbasses. Like everything else, flight in the path of a disaster favors those with means and abilities.

[Patton French]

5. And hoping it won't hit them directly

You never really know exactly where it’s going until it’s close to being there.

[Native]

15. And pets

[leftyladyfrommo]

20. I wouldn't leave my animals. nt

[obamanut2012]

28. Me either

[BlackSkimmer]

44. I've always had pets, and you are so right.

That was a big decision maker for me.

And after the authorities closed the only road into the Keys after Georges, I knew I’d never leave. And I didn’t. Friends who evacuated were calling in panic unable to reach their homes. That decision pissed off a lot of people.

We experienced two bad surges, but we were able to save things that would have been lost if we weren’t at home.

I’d do the same if I had to do it again.

[Hortensis]

65. And blow off those who just assume incredible stupidity.

Lack information and imagination. Glad that decision was the right one for you.

Everyone has to evaluate their individual situations to evaluate, applying their funds of knowledge and experience. Including elevation and quality of construction. Sometimes information is inadequate, some people make mistakes. This storm was a rapid intensifier and a water hurricane, not a wind one. Very different from others people had gone through before.

But not to be fooled by news coverage -- millions who made the decision to shelter at home are finding out what happened the way the rest of us are -- which electronics available depending on whether their homes have power.

[Native]

18. We left with the last hurricane and drove to Augusta. Guess what happened?

Because the path of the hurricane changed our home never lost electricity, but our golf course in Georgia lost power (yup, the storm made it up there). Iow, plenty of people evacuate only to find that they wind up in the path of the storm anyway. With Ian, lots of people evacuated the Tampa area to stay in Naples/Sarasota, etc., and look what happened to them. That said, people on the coast definitely need to move inland. And now with 70% of hotels accepting pets, if you have the money, that's a good option. Bottom line, you save your family and forget about your home.

[jimfields33]

57. A good idea except Orlando got hit hard.

The flooding on orange blossum trail was a disaster from the storm. So I don’t know if going in Land is such a great idea either. Hurricanes are crapshoot.

[Native]

60. I'm specifically thinking about people on the water. I've spent most of my life living on the water.

When a river or an ocean is your backyard, going in a ways can make a huge difference.

[jimfields33]

64. That is true.

[Pacifist Patriot]

68. We evacuated from Irma when it looked like it was going to hit us. It shifted and ...

headed towards where we had evacuated. So we went back home. Son of a Biscuit Eater shifted again and we took a fairly direct hit. Ended up riding it out when we had no intention of doing so. You never know.

[LeftInTX]

99. Run from the water. Shelter from the wind.

This is what came out of Hurricane Rita, where the evacuation was the biggest clustf*ck in history.

Now the Houston area has evacuation zones as a opposed to "four million people get in your car and run across the state"

It's much more easier and orderly for the evacuees

[obamanut2012]

27. Yup, and pets or people they help

Like a neighbor, etc. And, having a job they will need to report to in some way.

It annoys me so much to be asked why I'm not evacuating, or why other foljs don't.

We had loads of tornados down here, and one trashed our little local park, but we were okay. Folks out in more western pbc lost power.

Where do we go? Why pays? Why gwt stuck on 95 for hours in gridlock? My pets? My job? Etc.

[BlackSkimmer]

47. Yep, and when I lived in the Keys we were well aware that a single traffic accident can close a

bridge, trapping everyone on a road that is barely above sea level.

No thanks.

[Native]

58. Not to mention trying to leave when you have an all electric vehicle.

[ret5hd]

62. Where do you get gasoline...

when the electric is out?

[Native]

82. When you prepare to leave and you are filling up your tank, you bring additional tanks to also fill.

[dameatball]

33. Correct!! My brother and his wife packed everything up to go then decided the storm was going to

slide a bit south of them, so they stayed home. He is a conservative Republican but he does choose to accept reality when it comes to his direct physical and financial well-being. So he took in as much information as he could find and then played the odds. This time it has apparently worked out for him.

[JI7]

74. But the OP is talking about people that did have the capacity to leave . There actually ARE always

people that refuse to leave. Often they tend to be older types that have gone through things and survived so maybe think it wont affect them. They also have family with adult kids usually that try to get them to leave and they refuse to even if their kids or others will provide them with any assistance needed to get out.

[Pacifist Patriot]

76. I recommend looking at the section of responses under the DUer in Key West.

It addresses this very well.

[Raine]

4. I have some friends in Tampa. They didn't leave

they never do because they say the hurricane always has changed course. They never have gotten the full out disaster that the media always claims they'll get. They're not religious infact they're lefties so they don't use "magical" thinking.

[Hugin]

6. It is a feature and not a bug.

Although not entirely partisan to republicans, they make up the bulk of the contrarian reactionary anti-science mindset.

It has been seen regularly during the pandemic, especially, and global warming.

The type who bellows about how stupid the people who are working to prevent the worst from happening are. It doesn’t due to their efforts. Then the dumbasses are carried along through the crisis by those doing the correct things or they luck out and random chance averted a full scale cluster f**k and they point and bellow they knew all along there was no real problem and all of the effort to mitigate the worst was a waste.

The thing they don’t get is the worst only has to happen once and then it’s goodnight Felicia.

It is the it’s not a crisis until it’s a crisis anti-proactive thinking and why we can’t have anything nice.

[Phoenix61]

11. A whole bunch of this. nt

[Doc Sportello]

56. Well said n/t

[TheBlackAdder]

7. I wonder if part of it is that they think their neighbors will loot their homes.

[Hugin]

9. There's probably a subset in that category.

Unfortunately, there’s an opportunist subset who plan on doing exactly that.

The bulk, however, resent the inconvenience of having to save their own lives.

[BlackSkimmer]

49. "Resent the inconvenience of having to save their own lives."

Last edited Thu Sep 29, 2022, 02:01 PM - Edit history (1)

Maybe read some of the replies in this thread from Floridians before you judge.

[Hugin]

51. This thread is about those who can and don't.

From the title.

I do address compassion for those who can’t in other replies in this thread.

[Doc Sportello]

54. THIS: "The bulk, however, resent the inconvenience of having to save their own lives."

They interviewed one woman who said that "we've got hurricane force windows" and didn't want to get stuck in traffic. Of course getting stuck on her rooftop with flood waters all around didn't enter the thinking because it would be inconvenient.

[bluecollar2]

12. It's what happened after Andrew

Until the curfew was set up and the National Guard started patrolling.

[mcar]

80. I went through Andrew

No one knew where to evacuate too. Landfall predictions were up and down the coast.

[bluecollar2]

85. Farmers so we didn't leave

County police in unincorporated Miami-Dade have very slow response times. We are well inland so very low flood threat.

[Elessar Zappa]

8. There's usually two types of people who stay put during natural disasters.

Those who want to “protect their house” and those who don’t have the means to evacuate.

[Hugin]

10. The first complicating efforts to help the second.

I really do have a deep sympathy for the second. Many of whom are desperately doing what they can.

[Pacifist Patriot]

88. I'd add another key category.

Those who understand the unpredictable nature of these storms and live in areas where evacuation can potentially lead to more danger than staying put.

[BlackSkimmer]

13. I lived in Key West for 25 years. I never evacuated.

When Andrew threatened, many of my neighbors evacuated to Miami. They ended up with the worst of the storm, while we were safe and sound in the lower Keys.

During Georges, many left. We went from Key West to Cudjoe Key, which ended up getting the brunt. We lost our cars in the surge. If I’d stayed in Key West, my car would have been fine. They then closed the Keys, and those who left couldn’t get back in for days. That stopped a lot of people from leaving in the future…not being able to get back to their homes infuriated those who had left.

We never had “magical thinking” and we weren’t ignorant, especially by the time I rode out Wilma, by which time I’d ridden out more than I can count.

A hurricane is unpredictable, even with the best of science. Until you’re faced with this situation, best not to judge those who are.

[Native]

21. As a native Floridian, I agree with you 100%.

[obamanut2012]

30. 100% this

I also have never left.

[jimfields33]

63. I consider leaving this time when I saw the hurricane was supposed to go right threw my city

But for some reason, I stayed and did the best I could do to protect my house. When the time came, the hurricane did a turn and we only had bands of wind and no hurricane. Like I said in another post it’s a crapshoot.

[HipChick]

31. Agree 100%

As someone who lost everything when Andrew hit...Homestead was hit badly...the unpredictability is a factor not ignorance..

[BlackSkimmer]

40. Exactly, but there are always these kind of comments every time there's a major storm.

Always made by people who have never faced an approaching major storm.

[Doc Sportello]

61. I've faced many deadly storms

And I follow the advice of the officials. Let's hear the comments in the next few days from the people who stayed behind and lost loved ones and were scared to death they wouldn't make it. Bet they disagree with you.

[BlackSkimmer]

73. Leaving the Keys is a daunting proposition when a storm is approaching.

Certainly, many people re-evaliuate after riding one of these monsters out. Some people move away.

I was scared to death in every storm I experienced. I'd still do the same thing again.

Sadly, many people are new to Florida every year, and most come from states without these type of storms. They don't have a clue and don't know how to prepare.

I lived in Florida for a quarter century, and have many, many friends still there. Some evacuate, but most do not. Most are veterans of more storms than I, but they make the best decisions for themselves each and every time.

Of course, some will "disagree" with my opinion. Not sure what your point is there, doc.

[Chainfire]

69. There will come a day when heroes who don't want to evacuate Key West will end up

sleeping with the fishes.

I am also a Florida native, I have been through plenty of hurricanes, but I do not ignore the potential of them to take, not only my house, but my life. Rational people who live in coastal areas, prone to flooding, evacuate on a strong likelihood that they are to be hit hard. As far as "protecting" my house, there isn't a damn thing in, or including, my house that is more valuable than my life and the lives of my family and pets. I have to think that, many times, that is code for I want to stay and have the bragging rights that I fought the hurricane and won.

[BlackSkimmer]

75. Why so hostile?

People have been saying this about the Keys for many, many years. If you're a Florida native, surely you're aware of the 1935 hurricane that decimated the Keys? People still live there, people still stay. Why do you care what others do?

Thinking people want "bragging rights" for staying is a bizarre way to think about people who think long and hard about this decision, which is a personal one. You do what you think is best and let others make their own decision...how about that?

What does "fought the hurricane" mean? are you actually being serious here?

Nobody "fights" a hurricane. "Sleeping with the fishes". Omg.

[Chainfire]

77. Anyone who would not evacuate Key West in a serious hurricane is simply irrational.

They are not "heroes" and they are not "protecting" anything. The '35 hurricane is proof of my statement. The average elevation of Key West is 8 feet above sea level, sleeping with the fishes is what happens with a 18' storm surge.

Personally, I do not care about people who would try to stay on Key West or Florida's barrier islands, during a major hurricane, it is a choice that they would make, and natural selection takes over and the gene pool gets filtered.

"The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 blasted into Islamorada late at night on Sept. 2. A giant tidal surge, 18 or more feet high, swept across the Keys, and 408 people were killed."

[BlackSkimmer]

79. Could you please point out where anyone used the word "hero" in any post about staying put?

I somehow must have missed that. OR the "protecting" thing? Neither was a reason for me or anyone I know. "Hero", lol, that makes me giggle.

I rode out many hurricanes in the Keys. As did most people I knew. No one considered themselves "heroes". What an odd concept. And I'm still sleeping with my dogs at night, no fishes, thank you very much.

You really have a bug-a-boo about this don't you?

If I had evacuated the Keys for Andrew, when we were told to do so, I would have gone straight into the teeth of the storm. Do some research on hurricanes before judging others. Or knock yourself out judging if it makes you happy, I really don't care.

I find it rather curious, but hey, takes all kinds to make a world. Now I have things to do because I'm in NC and we're expecting a nasty blow as well.

You have a lovely day now. I'm done here.

[Pacifist Patriot]

87. As a Florida native you should be aware that we're essentially a sponge.

Flooding isn't just a matter of storm surges and creeks, canals, rivers, and lakes overrunning their banks. Pretty much anywhere can start flooding when the ground is so overly saturated it cannot take one more drop.

[Pacifist Patriot]

70. 1000% The "talking about people who can and don't" still misses the bigger picture.

Evacuation does not guarantee safety. I've lost count of the times I've evacuated only to get the worst of it or stayed put and it turned at the last minute and missed us almost entirely. It's a matter of calculated risk and ability that no one should second guess if they aren't in sporting your shoes.

This is different from people who go dancing in the surf in the middle of a storm. Now that is stupid.

[ProfessorGAC]

89. My Wife's College Roommate...

...has lived in KW since 1980. She moved there when she returned from the Peace Corps in Palau.
She's stayed, all but once. (That last big one that was a direct hit on the lower keys. I forget the name.)
Her biggest concerns were:
1) Getting stuck on route 1 because traffic would be ridiculous, especially on the 17 Mile Strip coming off Key Largo.
2) She was a case worker for Monroe County. She figured there'd be traumatized low income folks who would need her help after hell passed by.
3) Her family lives up here by us, in the Chicago market. Not a practical bailout location, as it's 1,200 miles.

[catbyte]

14. A lot of it is "normalcy bias"

What is Normalcy Bias?

Normalcy bias is a psychological state of denial people enter in the event of a disaster, as a result of which they underestimate the possibility of the disaster actually happening, and its effects on their life and property. Their denial is based on the assumption that if the disaster has not occurred until now, it will never occur.

Normalcy bias is a part of human nature, but beyond a limit, it can pose a serious threat to life and property. If people are not prepared for an impending disaster, it is most probably because of this psychological phenomenon.

https://psychologenie.com/insight-into-concept-of-normalcy-bias-in-psychology

-----------------------------------------------------------------

I've been guilty of it myself. When a tornado warning was issued for my area last year, I was sitting in my second-floor apartment thinking, "Nah, this is Lansing, a tornado wouldn't happen here" until I saw the radar and the rotation was approaching dangerously close to me. I had gotten the cat carriers out earlier and loaded the cats into them when it looked like severe storms were imminent, but there was this weird hesitation even though I know that tornadoes can strike anywhere. I finally got my butt in gear and went to the basement, but that feeling of incredulity still haunts me. Btw, the tornado fizzled out and everyone was okay, but it could've been a whole lot different.

[lindysalsagal]

59. I've always assumed as much, but I didn't know it had a title. Makes alot of sense.

I think it plays a huge part in criminal life: It works for you until it doesn't. Then, they still believe in crime even when incarcerated.

[Sympthsical]

16. My neighborhood caught fire yesterday

Was an odd little thing. I was sitting at my computer working on something with an open window next to me, and suddenly an overpowering smell of smoke blew through. Eyes stung, started coughing within a minute. I bounced outside, and the area was filled with smoke as a plume rose behind houses across the street.

This is California. I absolutely intellectually know how fast fire can spread here, particularly where I live in North Bay where everything is Nature's highly flammable tinderbox. I've read countless stories, seen endless footage of neighborhoods going up. It can be very sudden.

And my dumb ass is standing there going, "I'm sure this is fine. My house will be fine." I then started walking towards the smoke to get a better view of things.

There's this part of the human brain that rationalizes out that bad things are what happen to "other people" and cannot possibly happen to you. Nothing that bad has happened yet, so it's probably fine.

Firefighters came, because my county does not mess around with this stuff. A brush fire had started somehow, gotten into the trees, and was moving towards houses (some people started hosing theirs down). But fire people fortunately quashed it before any buildings went up.

There was real danger in the situation. If the firefighters had been ten minutes longer, it would've reached houses. And yet for about ten solid minutes, my brain was working in that, "This is fine," capacity before I turned back home with the idea of throwing boxes and kittens into the car.

"It will never happen to me," is a very real impulse. Sure a hurricane is coming, but their houses will be fine because they always have been.

[jimfields33]

53. You are spot on.

A little of your hesitation was shock too. But I’m glad it turned out well. Hurricanes are so ridiculous. They will have this perfect track and then suddenly the hurricane does it’s own thing. The hurricane actually changed the track twice if not three times. All those people that left Tampa, it turned out to be a waste. By the time Sarasota was given the evacuation,They have less than 24 hours (if that) to get out of there. Not specifically an easy thing to do. So I think people just figure they’ll just do the best they can and hope for the best.

[Sympthsical]

67. Wasn't that a problem some years back?

Where people were warned of an incoming hurricane, evacuated, and then it suddenly turned and pretty much spared the entire area.

Then another storm came, and those same people figured, "Well, last time was fine, so this time will be, too." A lot more people ignored the evacuation orders and it went considerably less well.

I seem to remember something along these lines like maybe ten years ago?

[catbyte]

71. I think you're thinking of Superstorm Sandy. The year before, Hurricane Irene was

predicted to cause great damage around New York City, but not much happened. Then, when Sandy threatened NYC, folks thought it would be another false alarm like Irene was, so they didn't take the warnings seriously.

[Tommy Carcetti]

17. Peninsular Florida's not an easy place to evacuate geographically.

It’s a peninsula only about 100 miles wide in most parts.

Millions of people live there but there are only really 2 major north south roadways out, I-95 and I-75, plus I-4 and the Turnpike which crisscross the state diagonally.

So you have a massive amount of people all wanting to get out at the same time, and few roads to go out or directions in which to disperse.

When Irma was forecasted to hit, I knew all this. And at one point the forecast had us directly in the path of a Cat 4-5 hurricane.

The entire state was in the cone of danger so I knew fleeing to another part of Florida would be futile. So we’d have to go to Georgia and even that was in the path of the storm.

So I made the decision to stay.

We have a newer house, concrete block construction, with shutters. And we’re not on a major body of water prone to surge.

And I don’t regret it.

In the end the track went slightly to the west of us and we only got tropical storm winds but even if we got hurricane force winds I don’t think I would have regretted my choice.

The roads out were hell, every hotel room in the state of Georgia was booked. A lot of people got stuck in their cars.

Now if I lived on the water would I have at least left my home? Absolutely. But leaving the state was not an ideal or easy option, even for people like me who had the means to do so.

Ian’s path wasn’t quite as bad as Irma’s (people could technically leave for Southeast Florida), but even so it was still not ideal.

So I hope this gives you a better idea of the logistics and why people do chose to stay it out rather than flee.

[jaxexpat]

26. Exactly true, I left the state for Ivan in 2017.

Went west initially then up through Alabama. Hotels were all full spent a night in the car. Went and stayed with relatives in Kentucky. Was away from home about 6 days in all.

It cost about $200.00 per day. If we'd had to depend on hotels the price could have easily been $500.00 per day. We were able to return straight into our street and park in our driveway. The roads had been cleared. Electricity outage lasted another 3 days. Cable and internet outage was 10 days longer.

As I write this, it's raining and the wind gusts are around 60 MPH. So far, we've lost no power but expect to by this afternoon. I could afford to evacuate but I know my home won't flood until the oceans have raised about 10 above their current levels. It is foolish to buy a home with a floor elevation less than 15 feet in Florida (or for that matter anywhere near any oceans). Yet so many do.

The math tells you that way too many can't afford to leave for even 3 days. The anti-science aspect is an interesting discussion but a stance against the principles of science requires more determination and true-believer noise than most can sustain. No matter how stupid some actually are most still do what's best in their minds for self-preservation.

I post now with my last....gasp....electrical...pow..er.

[dembotoz]

32. It is foolish to buy a home with a floor elevation less than 15 feet in Florida

yeah that makes sense to me.
gambling is best left to a trip to vegas.

[Kaleva]

19. Given what we know about climate change, people should be permanently leaving FL

At some point, property values in FL will plummet while property values in safer areas will rise.

[Pacifist Patriot]

94. Given what we know about the planet, nowhere is 100% safe for anyone.

[Kaleva]

100. No place is 100% safe but some are safer

and thus give people a better chance of survival. The Great Lakes region is expected to become a climate change refuge. Same with parts of the Appalachian mountain range, parts of the Northeast, Ontario and Alaska. Basically further north where climate will become more mild as the average global temperature rises

[Pacifist Patriot]

101. I've been telling my family for years I'm retiring to the Shenandoah Archipelago.

It used to be a joke.

[Conjuay]

22. houze bout:

they don’t want to sit in a six hour traffic jam?

can’t locate a shelter that will take them AND their six cats?

The problem ( this time) is that Ian was predicted to come ashore near Tampa and came in at. completely different point.

I’d be in trouble if it did come in around Tampa, I lucked out.

Millions didn’t.

[Emile]

23. When you live on a sand bar and can't afford insurance,

many of them stay to protect their property.

Anyways that's my guess. . .

[3Hotdogs]

24. I would guess a evacuation would cost the average family about $500.

Two days of driving. 2 nights lodging if there is no motel price gouging. Food.

If your credit cards are maxed or you have no emergency savings, you stay.


Two D.U. posters. One on Monday was on the road to somewhere out of Florida. He was aiming to beat the Tuesday rush.

Yesterday, someone was worried about his parents who couldn't afford to leave.

I hope Mar-A-Grifto is ok. It's a beau -- sorry, the most beautiful building anywhere.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

66. The average is more than twice that.

[Mariana]

81. Or, they could go to one of the many local shelters that are opened

in strong buildings and on high ground, whenever there's a hurricane.

[Ilsa]

25. I wouldn't be able to leave, not with physically disabled

MIL, autistic son, and two dogs, one which is big and mean. And sitting in fleeing traffic doesn't sound good, either.

[Ligyron]

29. Problem is most people always wait until the day before to split.

and yup, they either get caught in the worst traffic jam on earth at that particular moment or make it to a place they assumed would be safe only to take a serious hit from the storm they were trying to flee.

That's what happened to my wife, daughter and G kids during the last one while I stayed to theoretically "protect the house". They left West Palm Beach for Orlando, a no more than 3 hour trip normally, that ended up taking them 10 hours and arrived in a far worse situation than the one they left.

Meanwhile, back at the house I only lost electric for a few hours while the motel they stayed at was out of commision until they finally left, soaking wet from no AC and bored out of their minds from no TV or internet.

It was pretty funny since no one was hurt. Or it was to me anyway.

[Bmoboy]

34. My brother is in St Augustine

I called him on Wednesday. His grandsons were nailing up the window shutters. He bought some extra fuel for his generator. This was when Ian was going to stay on the Gulf side.

Now he is experiencing a tropical storm with 40 mph winds and tons of rain.

He used to live on the water. At least he has a few feet of elevation where he lives now, but Florida is pretty flat all over.

Health issues, age, money, and a favorable weather forecast all combined to give him a sense of safety.

It's easy to predict the future. Just not easy to get it right.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

35. It's usually less about not trusting data and more about circumstances facing their lives.

It is annoying, difficult, expensive and scary to evacuate, and normalcy bias can make people believe it makes more sense to stay. Having the capacity to evacuate -- meaning the money, logistical know-how, physical ability and the agency to move on your own without other people relying on you -- is not the norm. Add normalcy bias, and there's your answer. But it's true, it's a lot more fun to think that ignorance is driving their decisions.

[Pacifist Patriot]

96. It does get a bit frustrating.

Every single time we get a hurricane,posts like this one are inevitable. It's easy to Monday morning quarterback the decision to evacuate or hunker down when you're not the one making these decisions.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

98. Contempt helps people feel like their choices are what have kept them safe.

[no_hypocrisy]

36. My own experience

Hurricane Belle, August 6-15, 1976

My family and I were spending our summer on the south shore of the Great Peconic Bay in Southampton, Long Island. (It was a bungalow, nothing fancy. Rather rustic.)

Friday I started hearing about a hurricane in the Caribbean and might head north.

Saturday the trajectory was including the east end of Long Island. I told my father. He wouldn't listen.

Sunday my family decided to go to the north shore, to Jamesport to visit friends. They had a big boat docked there. The waves at 8:00 p.m. made the bow of the boat go up six feet and then down again. Again, I implored my father to go directly back to New Jersey. He scoffed at me.

Monday at 4:00 a.m. (less than six hours after Jamesport), my father was rousing me from sleep to announce we were leaving ahead of the hurricane. We made it back to NJ safely.

The eye of the hurricane passed over our area.

When we returned on Wednesday, no power. No power for a week. That meant no plumbing as well. And Mom had just bought approximately half a cow in the freezer. (Let's put it this way: The BBQ was fired up for the entire afternoon. Even the dog had steak.)

Going into the Village, trees over 100 years were scattered across roads. Power lines were down. The area was paralyzed for about a week to ten days.

While we did get out at the last moment, we could have left 72 hours earlier. Considering there is just one viable car route (Long Island Expressway), the exodus was restricted and that should have been a variable.

I still don't know why my father waited, save for the fact that he was a contrarian whenever I spoke.

[plimsoll]

37. For the most part we (humans) are innumerate.

So as long as you've dodged the disaster before you figure "I'll be fine this time." We don't take into account that that probability may only be %40 on each event but that the more often you play the more likely you are to win. Unlike the lotto these probabilities are high enough that repeated attempts will almost certainly lead to a "win."

Sure there are those who think it's a liberal plot by big science to take away their SeaDoo and ATV, but it's mostly just the fact that humans really aren't very good at risk assessment.

[Mariana]

38. There's no reason for everyone to leave the area.

If you're in a strong building at high enough elevation, and you've made adequate preparations, there's little chance of being in any danger from the storm or the aftermath. People who live in flimsy homes or in low-lying areas can go to the local shelters.

The news never tells you about the overwhelming majority of the people who stayed, whose homes are in good shape, who have plenty of supplies and are suffering from nothing worse than a lack of air conditioning.

[NCDem47]

39. Not this DUer!

Live in south Tampa and we left for Miami on Tuesday. That would allow us to get "behind" the storm quicker (and be on east coast) and avoid what was forecasted as a direct hit to Tampa Bay. Knew not to go to Orlando or points north as that would still put us in the path of storm. I heard a TV anchor say on Monday to have all prep done and shelter in a safe place by Tuesday at sundown. Took the advice! Still here in Miami waiting to get word that our power is turned back on and a clear path is available to get back to Tampa.

[Deminpenn]

41. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette did a story on

transplanted western Pennsylvanians who decided not to evacuate. While none of them disbelieved the science, they all thought they were sufficiently prepared with water, non-perishable food, sandbags, shutters, etc.

[IronLionZion]

42. I'm perplexed by people who choose to live in Florida

They have the biggest net influx of new residents of any US state. And it's not just retirees.

[Native]

83. No state income tax and no shoveling snow and a big selection of 55+ communities.

These are the reasons I hear most often.

[Tommy Carcetti]

84. Neither are the reasons personally that brought me to Florida, although I do hear that a lot.

Personally, for me it's the (non-extreme) weather and nature and scenery, although you sometimes have to search that out.

Definitely isn't for the politics, though.

[Native]

86. That has probably changed. I have heard people recently say they moved here because of politics,

Mostly because of Covid since we didn't have much of a lock down at any point.

[Pacifist Patriot]

90. It's where my husband got an amazing job offer.

He accepted because the offer came at the tail end of one of the largest snowfall winters in Massachusetts history at the time and we were tired of the ice and snow. There was also a Democratic governor for the first five years we've lived here.

It's been a great place to raise our children. Good cost of living and no income tax, excellent school system where we are, great parks at the municipal, county, and state level, supportive neighbors, etc.

We've had tropical storm and hurricane events, but never a blizzard, avalanche/landslide, earthquake, or tsunami. And there have been plenty of spells that lasted years with no tropical disruption. I'm not sure there is a place on earth devoid of the potential for natural disaster.

[IronLionZion]

93. My retired parents live there

I actually like the cold up north. Florida is fine to visit but I don't want to live there among DeSantis types.

[Pacifist Patriot]

95. The worst GOP types in my life are in-laws in Massachusetts.

[piddyprints]

43. We never left.

There are a lot of reasons why people stay.

In our case, we had a well-built reinforced concrete house with roof straps, hurricane panels, etc., and were far enough inland not to be threatened by storm surge. We also had pets we couldn't leave.

Just prior to one hurricane, after the governor had declare a state of emergency, my husband left work at 5:00, after being there since before 8:00, to finish preparations. He got fired for leaving work "early." My job had sent us home the previous afternoon and I was quite upset that he had to go at all that day. So, yeah, people are faced with losing their employment if they leave in time.

In many cases, the hurricane takes an unexpected turn and people who leave end up in a more dangerous situation while their homes remain safe. Or the traffic jams don't clear and they're sitting ducks. Leaving just doesn't always turn out to be the best option.

It's not just about science. It's not just about "it can't happen to us." All the reasons I've stated, plus the economic impossibility for many, all come into play. Remember, if you leave, you also have to come back, which presents logistical and financial problems as well.

I don't know what we would do if we lived near the water or in a trailer or any of the more dangerous situations than what we actually had. Maybe we would leave if there was an evacuation order. You just don't know until it's you making the decision.

There's a huge reason we left the state, and it was called Hurricane Wilma. We had very minor damage, but our neighborhood was a wreck that we couldn't drive through, just from the number of trees and screened lanais that were down. No destroyed homes, but plenty of blue tarp roofs. It was enough for us. We had had enough and never looked back.

I feel nothing but compassion for people who have to make the very hard decisions when storms are approaching. Been there way too many times, never knowing if we were doing the right thing.

[NCDem47]

46. Good perspective!

[Pacifist Patriot]

97. Indeed. The last thing we need is people judging us harshly for circumstances they don't truly grasp

My house was built post-Andrew code. Four year old roof. Hurricane shutters. Shelter closet for tornadic activity. 21 feet above sea level and five miles from the ocean as the crow flies.

In the absence of a direct hit from a Cat 4 (with landfall extremely hard to predict with precise accuracy), I'm safer staying put than I am evacuating. Less people like me fleeing means those in truly dangerous situations have fewer people on the road to contend with and more shelter/hotel space available.

We have a generator plumbed into our natural gas line for post-storm recovery as well.

[CCExile]

45. Public announcements should have encouraged ALL DEMOCRATS to evecuate!

[LisaL]

48. When everybody tries to leave at the same time, what do you think happens?

It's not like leaving is a walk in the park.

[Sancho]

50. We have lived in Clearwater for 30 years...

...and left the house for extended evacuations 3 times during about a dozen hurricanes. The forecasting has gotten a little better, but leaving is more difficult and expensive than ever. We've been in the house when a big tree fell on us (2001 in a no name storm with no public notice to leave) and also though numerous flood/power outage events.

We are in Ga now. During Irma, we ended up in SC. We also had reservations for hotels in different locations that we cancelled.

It is NOT easy, even if you have resources.

1.) Older people (like us) don't do well traveling for all the medical equipment and pet issues that you can imagine. Even vacations take planning. Throwing stuff in the car and going all night in a traffic jam with a pet is really tough. I'm sure it is similar with kids. We have friends who have limited mobility who stayed in Tampa. They are stuck there now with no power.

2.) We have lots of experience making reservations at multiple places (refundable and pet friendly) in case the hurricane goes a different way (it always does), and I still had to spend a lot of time on the computer and phone to cover the bases. In this case, the original forecast was up the West coast (reservation for Orlando), then it shifted to Tampa Bay (reservation in Pensacola), then it looked major (time to leave Florida). I gassed up at 5 am the day before any official warning, and there was already a line. Stations were out of gas before any evacuation order.

3.) I had to leave work BEFORE there were official closures and evacuations (pissing off the office) in order to miss the inevitable parking lots known as Florida highways. In hindsight I was not brilliant. Actually, it's experience.

4.) The house and boat and property are expendable, but no one wants to lose their stuff. EVERYONE down here have rules about "preparation" for the property, insurance, etc. For several days before this hurricane we were inundated by the city and sailing center (a small dinghy) and HOA and power company and insurance company about all the rules and regulations. Again, all I had to do is ignore work for 2 days, and get ready. Remember, we are good at this!

We left early before the evacuation notices, and we have friends/family out of state. It was a long drive, our hosts have to put us up for a week. Power is still out and who knows when we will be able to return and assess the house.

Yes, some people are just stupid and irresponsible. Others believe the anti-science hype. For a lot of folks, it is just harder than buying some batteries and a bottle of water and hitting the road. I'm pretty sympathetic with some who don't leave every time we get a hurricane alert, which is about 4-5 times a year. It's not easy and it is beyond the resources of many people.

[Johnny2X2X]

52. The shift was deadly

Packing up and leaving isn't easy, and it's not as easy as hopping in a car and driving. You have to organize some place to go to. People in Ft. Meyers thought they were avoiding a direct hit until less than 24 hours before it hit. By that time, they probably had no hotels to book inland, the shelters also may have been full. So maybe they were looking at sleeping in their cars during a Cat 1 hurricane 50 miles inland vs staying home and hoping for the best during a CAT 4 hurricane near the coast.

It's not easy to leave your home, the place where all your stuff is, the place where you are most comfortable. And there is anti science at play too.

But another thing at play also is storm porn from the media. It's the boy who cried wolf too often. I think there were people who have heard too many times that this is the big one, well this finally was the big one.

[Pacifist Patriot]

91. You're not wrong. By far there have been way more storms...

predicted to head straight for me that turned elsewhere, than there have been storms not predicted to hit that ended up on top of me.

After awhile you get quite the jaundiced view of hurricane predictions.

[Jirel]

72. For most, it wasn't about doubting science.

My parents had 2 places in Florida, a vacation place when I was much younger, and their a house during their retirement. During those times, multiple hurricanes came through, and I was able to talk to a lot of people going and staying. Top reasons for staying were:

- Feeling like it was pointless to leave because they’d go inland and still would be hit by the storm, and the damage back home wasn’t much worse than where they ran to. But, it was tough to leave and tough to come back, and it just made it harder to put their homes and businesses back together.

- Complacency after several hurricanes. Some people even truthfully would talk about how some “no-name” storms did more damage than the hurricane(s) that made landfall not too far away. Once they had a picture of what a hurricane was going to do, they were less likely to expect that the next one would be so much worse.

- Logistics. For some people with animals, or who were more elderly or have various disabilities, running seemed more of a nightmare than riding it out. If my parents were still alive, I truly wonder whether they, who would normally be the first to evacuate, would have made the choice to ride Ian out. Friends of theirs once rode out a hurricane (Andrew) in my parents’ condo for that reason. They said afterward that it was super scary, and they don’t think they’d ever do it again, but at the time it felt like riding in horrible evacuation traffic for hours was worse on one of their health than taking the risk and staying.

So, I’m inclined to feel more charitable to the people who stayed. Sure, if they were living in flood-prone areas in trailers/mobile homes/1-story homes, it was just super dumb, and it’s on them if they at least didn’t go to a shelter.

[Pacifist Patriot]

92. You make a really good point. Damage "on the edges" can be unpredictable.

We all know a direct hit from a Cat 3+ is devastating. Below that it can get downright odd.

Personally, we've experienced more damage from a few typical summer thunderstorms over the years than we did from a Cat 2 that went through our area in 2004. Our power didn't so much as flicker during Hurricane Matthew, but we lost it for 11 days after Hurricane Irma. Tropical Storm Faye and Tropical Storm Gordon caused more flooding in my area than any hurricanes have. The only time I've lost my car to a flood was in the wake of Hurricane Irene in 1995. That wasn't a direct hit, but because the ground was so saturated a rain storm that came in a day or so later caused the flooding that took my car.

I cannot possibly emphasize the unpredictability of these storms enough. Not just the paths of the storms, but what they leave in their wake. People are being held responsible for making decisions because they ignored the scientific data? Sorry, that doesn't wash. We're largely making decisions without concrete data at all because it simply doesn't exist due to the unpredictability. Far too many factors converging. The "data" is chaos.

[JCMach1]

102. It's the F' Around and find out effect...