KY Gov. Andy Beshear (D) with an eye-popping 74% favorable rating!

I don't think it would help if he campaigned with Jesus.

With a month to go, it can certainly improve. Interesting how no polls have been released since January

His chance of winning (1%) is the same as Alex Padilla and Chuck Schumer's chances of losing their Senate seats. Might as well focus on real chance pickups, such as PA, OH, WI, NC, and maybe even FL.

Fivethirtyeight bases their projections on things like polling, fundraising and the political lean of the state. It takes in no consideration of the likelihood of a wave election, flawed polling methodologies understating key groups, or the ground game (which likely contributed heavily to the 2020 results).

Truth is, if this is a wave election, Kentucky could very possibly be swept in that wave. And the truth is nobody actually knows how likely or not that will happen -and based on the special elections, I really don't think you can count too many seeming longshots entirely out until all the votes are counted.

Even then I'm not so sure. I guess I'm just not an "any race is winnable" kind of guy. I'm a huge realist. Consider this: No one with with a 99% chance of winning has ever lost. I usually donate to candidates in tight races, but that's just me.

How do you feel about Will Boyd in Alabama? I really like him, but he has no chance. He's up against MAGA election denier Katie Britt.

I know Booker has built a pretty solid organization for the last few years -along with a strong ground game. Folks like to underestimate the ground game, but it makes or breaks elections -even for terrible or underfunded candidates.

I'm not surprised to hear that he's expected to be re-elected.

You know what's really awesome? Beshear's 2nd term will end just in time for him to run for McConnell's Senate seat in 2026. McConnell has already announced he won't run again, so this one is up for grabs!