NYT: Fear of Civil War Mounts in Syria as Crisis Deepens

[ellisonz]

By ANTHONY SHADID
Published: January 14, 2012

BEIRUT, Lebanon — The failure of an Arab League mission to stanch violence in Syria, an international community with little leverage and a government as defiant as its opposition is in disarray have left Syria descending into a protracted, chaotic and perhaps unnegotiable conflict.
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The opposition speaks less of prospects for the fall of President Bashar al-Assad and more about a civil war that some argue has already begun, with the government losing control over some regions and its authority ebbing in the suburbs of the capital and parts of major cities like Homs and Hama. Even the capital, Damascus, which had remained calm for months, has been carved up with checkpoints and its residents have been frightened by the sounds of gunfire.

The deepening stalemate underlines the extent to which events are slipping out of control. In a town about a half-hour drive from Damascus, the police station was recently burned down and in retaliation electricity and water were cut off, diplomats say. For a time, residents drew water in buckets from a well. Some people are too afraid to drive major highways at night.

In Homs, a city that a Lebanese politician called “the Stalingrad of the Syrian revolution,” reports have grown of sectarian cleansing of once-mixed neighborhoods, where some roads have become borders too dangerous for taxis to cross. In a suggestion that reflected the sense of desperation, the emir of Qatar said in an interview with CBS, an excerpt of which was released Saturday, that Arab troops should intervene in Syria to “stop the killing.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/15/world/middleeast/syria-in-deep-crisis-may-be-slipping-out-of-control.html?_r=1&hp

Does anyone think Assad will hold on to power in the end? Does anyone think the Syrian people will quit their struggle for freedom?

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. Since you are serious about this

we did a lot of background for an article on something somewhat connected to this.

We are heading to civil war... that is the happy scenario.

Qatar has called for Arab troops in country (Regional War)

And if you really want to go full monty... the Russians have a light battle group in the Eastern Med, and we have a battlegroup in the Eastern Med.

Oh and let's not add the Iranians to the mix, or hizbullah. Trust me, head hurts.

But I expect scary news and fancy graphics on CNN any day now.

I asked a serious question on Meta on Israel, since they will be involved, no way around it... 1 million refugees plus, estimated to come, right now by serious publications, such as Foreign Policy, but got a very unserious answer, so will ask my editor for a chance to do an analysis blog once this falls of the rails, not when. Suffice it to say I was all but surprised by the unserious answers.

I might add, what do you want to know about Syria? 1919, the year that messed up the ME.

[ellisonz]

3. I do lots of background too.

Also, I really don't see what 1919 has to do with 2012 at this point in terms what is going on in the lines on the map that is commonly known as Syria. Please, ask a Syrian about the Assad family. Produce a single Syrian source that is not under duress from or in cahoots with the Assad regime that says this anything other than a popular uprising.

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. I am talking of borders drawn on a map

and tribal relations. That is what I mean by 1919... it is still playing a role in 2012.

Oh and if you want some fun, go read OUR travel advisory at State CAREFULLY, as with a fine tooth comb.

[ellisonz]

5. And I am talking human beings...

I do not know, and have never believed, that tribalism trumps our common humanity, the power of democracy, and our ability to reason without repression and violence.

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. Here you go, from State

http://www.state.gov/p/nea/rls/rm/176948.htm

It is in there. And it is like very fresh

[ellisonz]

8. Are you wishing to go on the Bashar Assad free media tour?

What do you expect the State Department to be saying? It's not out of line with the judgment of most of the world outside of the "official media" of Iran, Russia, and China.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. I sort of did for another story

I could quote SANA for you if that helps you. But the sectarian violence is indeed one way that Assad is going.

But if you wish I can give you links to the SANA fantasy writing, where there is no civil war, and the opposition are all foreign terrorists... nope, there is no FSA according to that creative writing.

[CJCRANE]

2. The genie's out of the bottle...

[riderinthestorm]

7. Another proxy war between Russia and the US. Putin is upping the ante I fear

by directly engaging in propping up Assad, he's aligning himself against the US (and their regional proxy Israel).

I absolutely believe Assad will hold onto power (there's no oil in Syria so nobody's going to help there). With Russia deciding to play chicken with the US in the region, it's going to turn incredibly ugly very fast or settle into another cold war-like stalemate. Either way the Syrian people are going to suffer and unfortunately with the big guns now trained on them, they are never going to have "freedom". Ever. Their revolution is essentially over and the big players are going to call the shots at the top even as the Syrian people continue to beat themselves to death against the gates of House Assad for 20 years.

I almost laughed (almost) when I saw what the Emir of Qatar said - unbelievable bluster. There's no love lost between Qatar and Russia. The Emir has basically just told the Russians to fuck off and aligned with the US. It's my opinion the Arab League is too unstable to sustain all the players breaking off into Russia v US teams, and sending troops into Syria as proxies for the big guys will have no appeal ultimately in the end.

[pampango]

10. Tunisia won't rule out troops in Syria

Tunisia has cautiously added its voice to calls from Qatar for direct intervention to stop the bloody crackdowns on protesters in Syria.

The foreign minister of Tunisia said in an interview to APTN on Sunday that he would not rule out troops being sent into the country. “We hope that the Syrians will sit on the table and sort out their problems with the head of the Arab colleagues within the umbrella of the Arab League," Rafik Abdessalem said in Beirut.

Once a close ally to the regime of Bashar Assad, Qatar’s leader has become a harsh critic of the regime’s violent oppression of protesters. The Gulf state withdrew its ambassador to Syria in the summer.

Abdessalem’s remarks are pertinent considering that Tunisia was the first Arab country to oust a dictator through a peaceful revolution a year ago – triggering what would be called the Arab Spring and causing the downfall of regimes in Egypt and Libya.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/01/15/tunisia-syria-intervention.html

I doubt that Tunisia, Qatar, the Arab League or anyone else is going to intervene militarily in Syria without the UN authorizing it. It is that more Arab countries are putting pressure on Assad.

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. Things are just escalating

that is all... these troops are well motivated. I have no idea of the quality of training or equipment.

[tabatha]

12. I think there may be more ambivalence by Russia than one realizes.

Russia notified about the ship carrying munitions to Syria via Cyprus. It was reported to have gone to Syria, but actually went to Turkey, where it was later reported to have "turned up".

Edit
And btw, Russian naval strength is somewhat zero.

[David__77]

13. If Assad really wants to hold onto power, I think it's in his power to do so.

But I don't know if he wants it that much, and is prepared to make the necessary strategic choices for that to happen.

As to this "freedom" thing of which you speak, I don't know that this has much to do with what's going on at all. It's always: freedom for whom and freedom to do what? Salafist freedom? Dictatorship of the majority over the minority? What?