Gen. Mark Hertling on the fight ahead in Ukraine. Important thread.

[Tomconroy]

Link to tweet

[Cha]

1. TY! nt

[WarGamer]

2. Good read...

[erronis]

3. Hi, Tom. I've enjoyed your posts but since I'm eschewing twitter can you put up more

content that doesn't require twitter to view?

Or is twitter the only way that your sources know how to get information out to the world?

It seems strange that many are still willing to allow musk to be the gatekeeper for this type of information.

[Qutzupalotl]

5. If you can see the tweet, you can click on Share this tweet

and paste it into the big field at the top of threadreaderapp.com

I've created this for you and me to read: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1596929670632869888.html

[erronis]

14. Perfect. Thank you very much!

[Emrys]

6. Hertling has a small presence on Mastodon:

@[e-mail]

It's nowhere as detailed as his Twitter feed, but he's started adding Threadreader links for some content he's posted on Twitter.

And Qutzupalotl seems to have come up with an interesting solution for the Twitterphobic.

"It seems strange that many are still willing to allow musk to be the gatekeeper for this type of information."

If you want to follow events in Ukraine and you don't want to use Twitter, your options are quite limited.

[Tomconroy]

7. I'm not happy about using twitter but it remains as far as I can

Tell the best source for news and military opinion on Ukraine. I would like to drop it but at the moment I don't feel I have an alternative.
Will continue to reevaluate.

[sprinkleeninow]

4. I also am grateful for all your contributing and informative posts.

Never joined Twitter for a variety of reasons.

What is Gen. Hertling's answer to 'these efforts will be tough'?

Thanx much.

[Tomconroy]

9. Basically he describes in some detail the difficulties of breaching trenches in the Donbas and l

Leading an assault across the Dnipro. He remains confident Ukraine can do both.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

8. I'm wondering why Gen. Mark Hertling suggests a need for a river crossing (of the Dnipro)

near Kherson when UKR forces could come around the river (in the area above and around Zaporizhia) and then sweep down the E-105 highway to link up with partisans who are already fighting in Melitopol?

That would break the supply lines between RU forces in the south-west (who could then only be re-supplied through Crimea with extremely long supply likes) and the RU forces in the Donbas. That would make for very difficult logistics of RU forces in the south-west.

Trench-warfare in the Donbas does seem daunting, but cutting the RU lines at Melitopol and putting Russian forces there on the run with a drive towards Crimea seems doable to this armchair general.

It's what I expect will happen.

[Beastly Boy]

12. Nearly all Russian troops that escaped from the Kherson front have been redeployed

to the Zaporizzhia front.These are some of the most experienced and battle hardened troops Russia has left. Melitopol, based on reports, is teeming with newly arrived troops. Advancing on the Zaporizzhia front is likely to be as tough as doing so on the Donetsk front.

Russian generals may not be the brightest cigarettes at an ammunition dump (pardon the mangled metaphor), but they are no morons. Even they must realize how dangerous Ukraine's advance on Melitopol would be.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

13. To me it looks like there is a pretty broad area that the Russians would need to defend to the east

of Melitopol, nearly all the way to Mariupol, where UKR forces could potentially flank RU positions, while also putting pressure from Kherson area.

RU forces there have not had a decade to dig defensive fortifications.

I suppose we will find out soon?

[Emrys]

10. Hertling doesn't seem to be taking much account of the winter weather and its effects on

those engaged in trench warfare in this thread. The talk of a "frozen conflict" is quite ironic in the circumstances.

Ukraine's troops are suffering too, but generally have better supply lines and access to dry and adequate clothing than the Russians do, and hot food at least on occasion, and the cohesion and common sense to know their importance.

In some ways, life for some may get easier as a real freeze sets in, as at least they won't have to deal with so much mud.

[Beastly Boy]

11. The UAF victories on the Lyman and the Kherson fronts have been nothing short of miraculous.

The good general is probably a religious man. He is warning us all not to tempt fate with expectations of continued miracles.

Thank you, General Hertling, and thank you Tom for setting our expectations straight.